This is the story of the one. As a maintenance engineer, he hears things differently. To the untrained ear, everything on his shop floor might sound fine, but he can hear gears grinding, or a belt slipping. So he steps in to fix the problem at hand before it gets out of hand. And he knows Granger's got the right product he needs to get the job done, which is music to his ears. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. What's next? At Moss Adams, that question inspires us to help people and their businesses strategically define and claim their future. As one of America's leading accounting, consulting, and wealth management firms, our collaborative approach creates solutions for your unique business needs. We leverage industry-focused insights with the collective technical resources of our firm to elevate your performance, uncover opportunity, and move upward at MossAdams.com. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] What is up, everybody? Thank you for joining me on the latest broadcast part of the CSG Network. I'm, of course, your host, Jeff Morton. This is going to be an interesting series. I'm going to do three weeks before they draft. Today, the 10th, on next Monday, the 17th, and then Monday, the 24th. I'm going to be talking about scenarios with decreasing, when you excuse me, with decreasing fantasy. This first one is going to be completely batch at bonkers, and I'm preparing you guys for this. It is going to be a scenario painted in light of the woohoo, the nuggets compare themselves too. That'll be this. Once again, folks, this is going to be completely crazy. I'm not doing this based on anything I've heard. This is just me having fun. This is just the way I see it, three different scenarios. This week, next week, and the week after are going to be different ways I see how this could play out from the ridiculous to the more realistic. The ridiculous one is today, and I hope you guys all enjoy it. Remember, this is just for fun, not based on anything I've heard, but this is just the way I've been thinking about lately. But first, I want to talk to you about our sponsor, Bed Online. Bed Online is your number one source for the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup playoffs this season. Every stat, every matchup, and even live odds and spreads while the games are being played. When the game's over, head on over to our online casino and get in on the game of Blackjack, Poker, or Unwind with one of their 150 slot games. If you're someone like me who doesn't gamble, it's probably risk-averse. That's probably my big thing about not gambling is I just don't like risk like that. I'm a very safe person if you guys all couldn't tell. And so I don't do that, but if I was to do it, I want to do it in a place where I know where I can get everything at once. That's not only convenience, but making informed bets. And having informed bets and being able to have fun all in one place, rather than going to 50 million different other places to get all your information you need, is probably better. And Bed Online is your one-stop-shop for that sort of thing. Head on to the website today and get in on the action. Use promo code BLEAV all in caps for your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit. That's promo code BLEAV for your 50% welcome bonus on your first deposit. Bed Online, the game starts here. All right. This is something I've been thinking about for a while, because this is how this scenario played out in my mind. And this is completely, like I said, this is going to be bonkers, but I want people to kind of go with me on this scenario. This is fantasy land, but if you go to Jay Morton 78 on Twitter and talk to me about what you think of this scenario, and also give me your idea about how this something like this could play out. Because it's crazy, but it's not crazy. And this is kind of how I want to frame this. In the first half, I'm going to talk kind of to give you a build up to it. So I'm going to give you my reasoning for and build for what I think is the setup of the scenario for the nuggets future, how they can handle this off season. And in the second half, I will talk to you about the mechanics of this and then resulting in whatever. Obviously, once again, fantasy land, but go with me here. There's some comments that nuggets have made, which has stuck in my mind. And a lot of it was Josh Cronke's emphasis on three max deals in the new CBA as if he wasn't part of the negotiations to bring in this new CBA, which is, I find, hysterical. But anyway, leaving that ridiculousness aside, that kind of has been working around in my brain for a while. And really, truly, the NBA is setting itself up to be a two max deal league with guys slotted in with role player contracts that are definitely less than max deals. But the NBA's really been trying to do with this CBA is limit overspending for long periods of time. So basically, it's set up to eliminate a Warriors-esque light years kind of stupidity, where they're outspending everyone and they're just able to keep all these guys on one end or roster and stuff like that. And this was really about them. But what it has done is eliminate and penalize other teams that want to build the same way the Golden State Warriors do. And, quite frankly, basically, that approach has been lauded the Warriors and now the nuggets approach of building slowly through the draft has been lauded with lauded way to do this. And well, now what's going to be happening with the NBA kind of devolving into what I would call NFL-style mediocrity is they want teams to only have two. And obviously, as I discussed in the previous podcast, the media rights deal and expansion will create a different set of circumstances and scenario to kind of ease up on this, on the penalties here, because there will be less of the talent concentration, the NBA as needed for 10 years now. But there is going to be that in the future. But this is considering all of that, what I'm going to lay out before you. Coming back to what Josh Crockett was talking about with only having two max deals and talking about the contract signed under a different, a different CBA, which is once again convenient for Josh to be talking about that. And I've been thinking about, well, the nuggets have modeled themselves after the San Antonio Spurs, which is, as I've discussed many times before, the Spurs model is not followable because there was a collision of circumstances in the 90s that are basically not repeatable. How a 60 win team can have be set with injuries and then suddenly be tanking and win a draft lottery when they weren't the worst team in the sport is one of those things that just is lightning striking twice in the same place. It's just not going to happen. However, there are ways you can try to replicate it in a logical way. And there's also a ridiculous way. And we're going to be talking about the ridiculous way right now. With the considerations, what the nuggets have been talking about, and once again, Josh Crockett himself talking about how the CBA has changed, you need to replace your top end talent that's locked in on max deals. You need to be able to replace them with equal talent, not the same type of talent necessarily, but equal talent. You can't be replacing them with late first, second round picks. You just can't do it. The nuggets already caught lightning in a bottle with Nicole Yochich. You can't count on that happening again. If there's going to be a new CBA where you are focusing on not being able to pay people, then you're going to have to relent and be able to get top end talent. So with that, it comes either via trade. That comes via free agency signings or it comes through the draft. So for this particular scenario, I'm going to talk about the draft. And I'm going to be talking about something that is going to be extremely difficult for this nuggets to do in reality due to myriad of circumstances that I will lay out in the second half. But what I'm talking about is this draft, this 2024 draft is terrible. It doesn't have those franchise changing guys. It has good role player guys. And so for the Denver nuggets who are selecting 28th in this year's draft and have a second round pick, it's good to have a role player drafted because they will be drafted at a logical spot. You're not overdrafting a 28th pick in the lottery because there's no standout talent. That's why the bust potential for someone who is in the top five is so big in this draft because inevitably anyone who is drafted in this draft in the top of the lottery is going to be overdrafted. That's just the nature of this year's draft. This is very much like the 2013 draft which lucked out and having a Yana sent into Kupo drafted, I believe, 15th, which no one really saw. Masai Ujiri did. I remember him talking about Yana prior to that draft before he left. He was big on Yana's. So there was this, that going on. But by and large, that was a, that was just a, that was a draft full of mid round picks that a lot of them ended up in the top of the, of the first round. So that is just the nature of the way things are going in this draft 2025 is going to be far superior, particularly at the top end of the draft. And if you talk to people in the league, it will be, it is known as the Cooper flag draft. Everyone, every person in the league is focusing on Cooper flag. I know nothing about this kid other than a couple highlights I've seen. He seems to be pretty good. He seems to be a standout player. And, but beyond that, I know I'm leaving it to experts to tell me about this, this particular draft, but NBA people, very specifically NBA people seem to really love Cooper flag and a couple other players at the top end of the draft. And these are the drafts that people go gaga over. Not this year. This year has been depressing. No one's talking about any of the prospects. It has just been, it's been hard. And I'm not a big draft person. So obviously I am not the person who's going to be talking about draft this year's draft. You're going to go to other people and talk about that. But there is a scenario building up for next year where it's not quite the Wembanyama thing, but it's close. And it's, and it's very specifically about two or three players right lodged at the top of the prospective 2025 draft that has really got people excited. And this is where I'm focusing right now. As you know, your Denver Nuggets have no 2025 pick. And no 2025 first draft pick, but they do have a second draft pick, but they, this is their unfortunate experience. They can't do what the Spurs did. And basically have an injury filled 1996, 97 season and luck into a draft that had Tim Duncan. That's just not going to be happening for your Denver Nuggets with their own pick. That's just not in the cards because it's gone. That pick is gone and the Nuggets can't tank out next year and do all that, but they can be forward thinking. And I would say a little ruthless with their own players and really kind of think about that draft. Think about the top of that draft and maximize their chances of getting a top player. Once again, folks, what Josh Kronke has been saying is the prospects of the Nuggets keeping all these match contracts are low. They have to make a decision on Jamal Murray this off season. Okay, keep that in your head. So they have to make way whether they want to give Jamal a max when they already have Michael Porter, Jr. and Nicole Yokich on Max deals. Okay, the Nuggets right now are dealing with something before most other people in this league. They're dealing with not being able to keep their home ground players in the second half of this podcast. I will talk about the idea I've been thinking about and how the Nuggets can maybe move in that direction in this wild scenario that will absolutely never happen. But first, I'd like to talk to you about Blanchor Family Wines located between 18th and 19th and Blake and Wazi in beautiful Lower Downtown, Denver, Colorado, just a couple of books. We're in Coursefield, right in Miller. They're always online at BFWColorado.com there on Facebook and Instagram under Blanchor Family Wines. You know, five years ago, I started talking about Blanchor Family Wines. Not once in this whole thing, I've been asked, not once have I asked them to compensate me for this. This is just me talking about my favorite place to go in Denver. So Blanchor Family Wines is in the dairy block and they also got a location in Fort Collins. They got a location in Golden. They got obviously their original location in Sonoma County. Check them all out at BFW, you know, Blanchor Family Wines or BFWColorado.com. But when I go down there, it's right in the dairy block. It's really centrally located. It's a great vibe. And if I talk about great vibes, dairy block is probably one of the best in Denver, centrally located. And not only do they have great reds, whites, raislings, you know, rosés, partnerships with western slope wineries, but they also have, you know, just a great centrally located vibe where you can stop, you know, you have a drink before going to dinner. Or you can go and have a nice little nightcap one night. Or you can just enjoy the vibes of summer in Denver because it's one of my favorite times of year. It's a great place to go down and just experience what all the Denver has to offer. Once again, they're located between 18th and 19th and Blaken Wazie in beautiful Lower downtown Denver, Colorado, just a couple of walks away from Coorsfield right in the middle of the dairy block. They're always online at BFWColorado.com. They're on Facebook and Instagram, Blanchor Family Wines. When you go in, are you talk to them, Dylan? Jeff Morton from CSU podcast sent you. What's next? At Moss Adams, that question inspires us to help people and their businesses strategically define and claim their future. As one of America's leading accounting, consulting and wealth management firms, our collaborative approach creates solutions for your unique business needs. We leverage industry-focused insights with the collective technical resources of our firm to elevate your performance, uncover opportunity, and move upward at MossAtoms.com. This is the story of the one. As a maintenance engineer, he hears things differently. To the untrained ear, everything on his shop floor might sound fine, but he can hear gears grinding, or a belt slipping. So he steps in to fix the problem at hand before it gets out of hand. And he knows Granger's got the right product he needs to get the job done, which is music to his ears. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done. Since the Nuggets fancy themselves as the modern day spurs, there's something that they can do. But it would require doing something that no one wants to do, which is why this is in the realm of fantasy. The Nuggets could trade Michael Porter Jr. or Jamal Murray, or both. And basically begin the process of acquiring Japan talent again, young top end talent, putting their money where their mouth is. The Nuggets have said that draft picks will be the featured part of their model going forward. But what has been the problem is that the Nuggets have not been replacing talent with top end talent, but what they've been doing is replacing it with low ceiling high floor guys. And all that daring, you know, the kind of baseline is just gives you a floor, doesn't give you a ceiling. And within this new CBA, if the idea is to replace starters with top end talent, you need to acquire that. And you have to do that quickly on the koliyokiches here. The Nuggets are in danger of basically wasting the koliyokiches prime, because they are replacing players who aren't as good as the players who are leaving. That very specifically happened when Bruce Brown left, and it's going to keep happening. And as the Nuggets have told us, they are going to be getting into a scenario where some of these core guys, and very specifically Jamal Murray, Mike Paul Jr. and and the koliyokic can't stay on the same roster. Because it's financially untenable. The way you do this and the way you replace it is you understand the draft that you'll be coming into and try to get maximize your chances to get the top end of the draft. And by that I mean you either trade Michael Porter Jr. for a lottery pick. You trade Jamal Murray for a lottery pick, and you understand that this is going to be a lost year with the hopes of drafting your future to go with it. And this is in the Cooper flag draft, and this is the way to maximize. I don't like tanking, but I feel like the Nuggets are in a position right now to where they need to, and this is not necessarily about the wolves. This is not about any of the teams in their division, other than maybe the Spurs, but where the Nuggets are at right now is they are on this edge of where they're going to have to make decisions on who will be the player that is going to be the odd man out. I am inclined to think that it's Michael Porter Jr. But once again the Nuggets have a decision to make with Jamal Murray. There is a concept if the NBA is going to be going into this NFL-esque constant churn, the model there, even though there's non-guaranteed contracts which can't be replicated in the NBA, no other league will have non-guaranteed deals, but on the scale of the NFL. But there is this notion specifically touted by the New England Patriots is that you get go off of guys before a year before they start their decline. The Boston Celtics sort of did that with Marcus Smart. The Nuggets need to be identifying this specifically this year. I am a little worried that the Nuggets will be trying to hold on to the starting five without thinking about what's going to be happening and the restrictions that's going to be on them. The churn is guaranteed on the roster, but the problem is the Nuggets are not replacing them with players who are of equal talent. Each time you draft in the lower rounds and if you're committed to this draft approach, each time you draft in the lower rounds, you're not replacing equal talent, you're replacing them with roll guys. And Nicole Yokich can only do so much. I keep saying this, when the Oklahoma City Thunder traded James Harden in 2012, they didn't replace him with James Harden. They replaced him with a bunch of role players. They were fine role players. Stephen Adams was part of the picks that came out of that, but they never matched their ceiling again. And as long as you're with Nicole Yokich, you have to keep matching the ceiling. If you trade like a quarter junior and you don't need to even need to have the Atlanta Hawks prove this year, you don't need to have a top-end lottery pick. But the Nuggets would have to be depending on other draft, other teams because they don't own their own tick this year. They would have to be trading for someone else's pick who is hopefully in the lottery. You would have to do that by maximizing your chances. If it was me and this dreams fantasy scenario that will obviously never happen, I would probably do either one or both. Or the person who's probably going to get you more of a chance at a lottery pick is Jamal Murray, and he's got one year left on his deal. There could be a scenario where you trade him, get a lottery pick, hopefully get Cooper Flag. But the Nuggets, if they're going to be replicating the San Antonio Spurs, which they keep saying over and over and over again, you need to have a David Robinson drafted and then a Tim Duncan. Coming in. You need that. The Spurs became the Spurs because they had two number one top 50 all-time NBA pick people on their roster. It made absolutely everything after that silly, easy, and that's exactly what happened with the Spurs. So if the Nuggets are going to go with this draft pick lottery away, they have to get equal talent. And if they're going to do it, do it the draft pick way, they have to get top end draft talent. They can't be subsistent on trying to hit a once in a lifetime thing like they did with Nicole Yochich. You need top end guys. You need guys that are lottery picks and are going to be able to fit in with Nicole Yochich, obviously. But you need the guys that are of equal talent. And the talent is the key here. And if the Nuggets are able to parlay that into a top pick in a talent laden draft, then the Nuggets would be setting themselves up even more for the future. Now, the caveat to this, obviously this dream scenario that will never happen, is you would have to convince Nicole Yochich that the Nuggets are not exactly going to be actively competing this next year. Because you will be trading a key piece without getting the equal talent back. But if you can convince him and say, "Look, man, this is the way for us to guarantee your future through the end of your contract and to have guys who are exciting and almost as talented as the people you've lost, that is one way to do it." Now, obviously, now this is where I'm going to talk about the downside. This will never happen because no one wants to trade guaranteed people for a wish. No one wants to trade a guy who they know can produce something for a hope and a prayer. That'll obviously never happen. This is not something that the Nuggets will be inclined to do. This is not something that I can see many teams in the NBA doing. This is why this is completely bad shit. Crazy. Something like this is not something teams will be able or want to do. It won't change the scenario that the Nuggets will need to be able to replace the talented the guys that they have already because it's coming folks. The Nuggets, this core has got is one year down the line and then you've got Jamal up this year. You've got Aaron Gordon and this is something that's going to get hairy and the Nuggets are going to need to be making decisions. The part of this equation is understanding and getting a year ahead of it and maybe saying, "Okay, we need equal talent to what we're putting out. We've got to get into the lottery again." The Nuggets don't have a pick this year. The only way you can get a pick in the 2024 draft is if you trade Jamal or Mike. Probably Jamal would be more likely, but this will never happen. The Nuggets will not do this. The Nuggets believe in their core. They believe in the four guys at the top. They believe that if they just insert role player, they will be good enough. There's a lot of evidence to back that up. I'm not advocating that the Nuggets do this. I'm just painting a scenario. I will say that once again, we need to face the realities of the CBA. If the Nuggets who have said over and over and over, by the way, that the CBA is onerous and having three max guys is almost impossible in this modern world of the NBA, then we need to listen to what the Nuggets are saying. This is why I'm doing this series because this is creating different scenarios of how the Nuggets can manage this sort of thing. And going into a trading one of your core guys in order to maximize a pick or maybe several picks in the lottery in the first round of a very good 2025 draft is risky. And no one was going to do that and likely a GM would get fired in that scenario. And I don't see any team cutting off their nose despite their face in doing that. It's very risky and it's not something that anyone would have an appetite for doing. It is something that is just part of guaranteeing your job as a GM. And fan base will be very turned off by just a year after two years after a little over a year after you won your title to be going into Tanksville and trading players for draft picks. Fans won't like that for obvious reasons. So in the second scenario, which is coming next Monday, I'm going to be talking about the trade and getting back players, getting back players that you think will be on the level of the players you're sending out. Or the very least will be players that you're sending out. We'll be talking about that next Monday on this series. In the meantime, thank you all for joining me on the latest forecast. We'll be back on Friday with Business Friday and we'll be discussing more business of the NBA. Goodbye. ♪ ♪ ♪ This is the story of the one. As a maintenance engineer, he hears things differently. To the untrained ear, everything on his shop floor might sound fine, but he can hear gears grinding or a belt slipping. He steps in to fix the problem at hand before it gets out of hand. And he knows Granger's got the right product he needs to get the job done, which is music to his ears. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done. What's next? At Moss Adams, that question inspires us to help people and their businesses strategically define and claim their future. As one of America's leading accounting, consulting and wealth management firms, our collaborative approach creates solutions for your unique business needs. We leverage industry-focused insights with the collective technical resources of our firm to elevate your performance, uncover opportunity, and move upward at Moss Adams.com.
A new three week Monday series on the Mortcast begins today talking about different scenarios for a Nuggets offseason and how it could play out. In week one Jeff goes over the most insane one (that definitely won't happen) and talks about scenarios/reasons behind it. The trading Jamal and Mike for 2025 Lottery pick scenario.
