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Canucks Central

The Open: Go All-In on Jake Guentzel

Dan and Sat discuss the latest on Jake Guentzel and what lengths the Canucks should go to in order to try to land the talented-winger. They also discuss what Guentzel could bring to the Canucks and his fit on the roster.

Duration:
25m
Broadcast on:
11 Jun 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

Dan and Sat discuss the latest on Jake Guentzel and what lengths the Canucks should go to in order to try to land the talented-winger. They also discuss what Guentzel could bring to the Canucks and his fit on the roster.

This podcast was produced by Josh Elliott-Wolfe.

The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rogers Media Inc. or any affiliate.

[MUSIC] Canucks Central Tuesday. It's Dan Richeau, Satyar Shah, here in the Kintak Studio. Kintak, Canada's favorite orthotics provider, powered by thousands of five star Google reviews. Soar feet, what are you waiting for? It's Canucks Central here on a Tuesday, June the 11th. And the speculation continues, what? Or won't the Canucks do in free agency? And I know there hasn't been a ton of news to go around. >> No, I mean, I think the most compelling news outside of, you know, the sound like a final game in and of itself was how you fared on the links. >> Yes, good day. >> Man, I can't get away from it, can I? We're playing a beautiful Pit Meadows Golf Club out there in Pit Meadows. >> Very good, good deduction. >> Who knew? >> Who knew where it was, yeah, it's crazy. >> Well, Pit Meadows Golf Club, in Pit Meadows, it was a tough day for me. Yeah, you can tell they're getting the course tournament ready for the BC Women's Open next week. And Ben would know, I mean, he played it recently in tournament fashion. >> Yeah, I just played it, you know, and they tuck the pins into tough spots. And they have the greens rolling pretty firm. It can be like, I couldn't hold anything onto the green. Like usually, like I know I'm not a star player or anything like that. But usually, like with a lower iron or a wedge, I can at least get things to hold a little bit. But it was tough yesterday. >> Yeah, you had to like club down basically. >> Yeah, during the tournament, because it was sky, it was like hitting on a concrete. >> Yes, that's exactly how it was yesterday. >> Couldn't hold anything just rolling off the back of the green. And as Josh will tell you, if you see my short game, that's never a good thing for me. >> So this is what I like. This is me when I talk to you about our good eye golf or better than the eye golf. Like I'm just trying to hit the green and I'm like, wait, I have to hit the green a certain way. >> Yes, I can't just get it there. >> No, I can't just get it there. But it was good times played with Barry Delay and Rishi from Boyd Auto Body. >> Yeah, both good guys. >> We had a really good time. Shouts to Fraser from the Vancouver Golf Tour for inviting me out. And I hope they do really well. It's what they're doing for women's golf and how they're increasing tournament purses. I think the tournament purse for next week is $60,000. So it's a pretty big increase from where it used to be. And obviously, I think the top three get invited to the CPKC women's open out in Calgary this year. So it's a big tournament. And I mean, if you're so inclined, the tournament's out in Pitt Meadows next weekend. >> All right, Dan Reicho and Satyar Shah, that's enough for me. That's enough about my golf game. >> Okay, fine. >> People don't want to, I don't want to be the guy that corners somebody in the room and be like, man, I was just like the three wood I hit on 12 yesterday was just unbelievable. >> No, I know. I mean, it's water cooler, cooler tops. But we can't trust you around water coolers either. So it's like, I don't know. >> Hey, man, those jokes. >> We hit our daily quota. >> Yeah, those jokes are flying all over the place. >> Yesterday? >> Yeah, I'm sure they were. >> I called my mom on the weekend, so I saw you had some trouble with the water bottle there. >> Everyone saw it. I love it. >> Like jeez, man, not you two. All right, let's get to the open. >> Welcome to the open. >> That's your home. Are you too good for your home? Answer me. >> Yeah, the open, the latest on Vancouver Canucks and our take on it. And here on this show, we've kind of discussed what the Canucks are going to do with their own free agents, what they might do when July 1st opens up and the rest of the free agent class is out there and available for everybody to bid on. And the biggest name, maybe from a Canucks perspective and maybe from the entire classes perspective is Jake Genssel. Rick Dollywell reporting today that Genssel isn't necessarily opposed to coming to Vancouver as some reports may have suggested, you know, I know here on this show we've talked about and wondered if Jake Genssel would be or the preferable option would be for him to stay state-side. It's a bit of a mystery as to what exactly Jake Genssel wants. And from my perspective, that is probably what his agent would prefer is for there to be a mystery and to have as many bidders ready to pony up the dollars. You've been very skeptical about Genssel wanting to come to Canada or like coming to Vancouver specifically as well, like in free agency, right? And there have been reports that Jake Genssel would prefer to stay in the US, right? That has been out there. I know Elliot mentioned on the 32 Thoughts podcast that he kind of wondered about Chicago being a fit for Jake Genssel. So the stuff that's been out there kind of a little bit has been, yeah, maybe he has his eyes set on certain American destinations, right? But like, I'm not a Jake Genssel insider. I don't know where his head's at. What I do know, and I mentioned this over a month ago, even before that, when the Canucks were eliminated, that the Canucks, if Jake Genssel gets a free agency, would be all over it. Yeah. The question is, can you close that deal? And that's what it comes down to. And if Jake Genssel is getting to July 1, then I would expect the Canucks to be in on it. The price is going to be steep. There's a number that you would not want to go beyond probably, but you may have to consider doing so. You can trade for his rights as well, because they are available via trade. The question is, is he willing to sign or does he want to get to July 1 no matter what? Because if he wants to get to July 1 no matter what and talk to different people, then it's kind of out of your hands, but you have a roll of the dice to see if you can make it happen. So the question is, what is it going to take? I know, like the way I look at it is, it's not that Jake Genssel would rule out coming to the Vancouver Canucks. Just with most of these players, I imagine going to a Canadian team, they're usually going there because it's the highest bid out there. If you have comparable bids, some that are even, then maybe you start to decipher, okay, which is the better situation for me? Where would I fit in best? And those other particulars start to come into your decision making. But I just don't feel the Canucks are going to be able to land Jake Genssel without offering the biggest contract. And what does that look like? So you can go into your auction draft in the summer for your fantasy football pool and be like, you know what, I'm capping out at 60 bucks for Justin Jefferson. And guess what? You ain't getting Justin Jefferson without money. Yeah, it's like, yeah, well, to me, if you say you're serious about going out for somebody, you can't say you're serious. If you're walk away numbers, like five or 10 million below what the threshold needs to be. You're a serious bidder, if you're in for it, if you're willing to outbid teams, that means a serious bidder. To me, a serious bidder that has a cap that's on the low end, you're not serious. But if you're capping at 60 million, like, I don't know if that's going to be enough to get Jake Genssel. Okay. So what do you think it's going to take to sign Jake Genssel? Forget Vancouver. Like generally, like what have we seen in free agencies so far? The biggest contract handed on a free agency was it was Eric Carlson, right? 11 and a half million. It was John Tavares getting elected. Well, Carlson actually resigned. You resigned. Yeah. So they've got Tammy Panerin, 11.6 over seven years. So Panerin, 11.6 is the biggest one. And then it's 11 million to John Tavares. Yeah. And I think those are the two biggest ones, right? So 77, Panerin would have been over $80 million. Right. Is he going to fall into that range? Probably not. Yeah. Jake Genssel. Is he falling into the John and Goudreaux range? Which is in the 60s. Yeah. So 9.75 over seven. I think he does. When you look at Jake Genssel, and this is why, okay, if you're the Canucks and you want to be in on Jake Genssel, for me, it's probably in the $65 million range. And if you have a cap at 63 or 64, if you want to land this player, you're probably going to have to be going to a place that is a little bit uncomfortable. I mean, these numbers we're talking about are already uncomfortable, but you might have to get even a little bit more uncomfortable as Rick Talkett would like to say. So if you look at Jake Genssel's numbers, I mean, he's got a lot of negotiating power. He's as good a left shot forward as there is in the league goal scoring. There are 11 players over the last three seasons that have scored more goals than Jake Genssel, at least forwards with a left-handed shot 11 players. That includes center. So that's including Austin Matthews of the world. That's including those types. He is in a pretty rarefied air when it comes to his production levels. And the only thing people can really say against him, and I think it's somewhat short-sighted, is to say, well, he's a product of Sidney Crosby. Like, if anybody has a criticism of Jake Genssel, that tends to be what it is. And I do think it is a little unfair to have that as your take on why not to give Jake Genssel 60+ million. No, I thought he was terrific when he went to Carolina, and they don't have Sidney Crosby on that team, right? He had 25 points in 17 games, eight goals in that time. And then in the playoffs, had nine points in 11 games for those being goals. He was effective in the postseason as well. Jake Genssel is a top 10 left-winger in the league. You could even say maybe top 5-6 if you really want to stretch it. Now, I kind of put him maybe in that 6-7-8 category more than I would put him into the top 5 category. But I would be willing to outbid teams for Jake Genssel. Yeah. I look at that level of player. For me, I would do it because if you wait until next year, all the free agents are going to be the same age. And next year, there are guys like Mitch Marner. Who would you rather? Do you want to go after Mitch Marner? I think I like Genssel better than Marner, especially because of the price points to where they're at. If the other player is available, like John Tavares and stuff, I'd rather have Genssel. Yeah. And any free agent you're going to sign to a big contract is going to be at that age range. Yeah. So I mean, you're not going to be in the free agent market if you're not willing to sign guys that are 28 or 29, right? And if we look at the Connects being willing to give a Lindholm 7x7 and perhaps being willing to give Zadoraov 4.5 or 4.75 over 6 or something, right? Let's just say they're at that range. I'd rather just pay Genssel, man. Yeah. That's the way I would look at it. If I'm going in this off season, I think the big piece is the most important thing that connects I have to add, like a legitimate needle moving piece. That's to me the main priority of this off season. And if you have a realistic chance of getting Jay Genssel, I'm in. And you know me, like I'm very stingy when it comes to handing out money to the Connects own free agents. I talked about Dakota Joshua and I wanted to pay him for. I don't want to pay Zadoraov 5. I don't want to pay Lindholm over 7. But I'll pay Jay Genssel. Well, it's about paying elite players or whatever your definition of elite is. Even if you have a very high definition of what elite is, Jay Genssel is really close to it. And where do you add those players from? Like every Stanley Cup contender adds players from outside, somehow, some way to add to their core. You look at the Oilers right now, Matthias Eckholm, Zach Hyman, big additions to their core from outside of the organization after going through the rebuild draft process. Same goes for the Vegas Golden Knights. I mean, they did it with how many players, Jack Eichl, Mark Stone, go on down the list. The Florida Panthers, same thing. Most of their guys came from outside of the organization. It's just a way that you have to do business. If you are the Canucks, I think there's an even bigger value on Jay Genssel because you don't have a cupboard full of assets to go out and trade for this kind of player. That's what makes this that much more difficult for Vancouver to be able to pull off. And that's why if you're going to do this, you've got to be willing to pony up the biggest contract out there for Jake Genssel. I don't know if it reaches double digits, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jake Genssel gets close to that number on July 1st, not just because he's worth that today, but also what do we hear every time a team signs a big contract? Well, they're doing the projections on the salary cap and they see where it's headed. So they're a little bit more comfortable doing this today, even though it might hurt for a first couple of years, but it'll age out a little better for them as time goes on. The thing is, too, though, unless it's a team like Chicago, there aren't a lot of teams that can actually pony up that much to them. No. And does he want to go to a place like Chicago? Perhaps. I know Elliott mentioned a place like Chicago, right? But I think the number is going to be under 10, but perhaps in the nines. And again, I'd be willing to go to that level. I know there are those that are somewhat skeptical about that. Dean Abbesserty says too small, too not physical at all, not young. And the thing that the wonder is, did Genssel ask for 10 from Carolina? Yeah. And that's what some of the rumblings have been about what? But that also could be the number that for him. I don't know if he wanted to, like, I'm not saying, again, I'm not a Jake Genssel. I'm not saying he didn't want to go to Carolina, but I do know from the things I heard during the trade deadline. He really wanted to come to Vancouver. It was from people I knew around here that I found out about that. And we talked about it. And others had heard the same thing that he really wanted to come to Vancouver at the deadline. Like one thing is a rental and another thing to commit the next seven years of your life to that. Precisely, right? But Carolina, I'm not sure how high that was on this list. So he's like, yeah, if I want to stay in Carolina, here's a number. Yeah. Because everyone has a price. So and yeah, maybe you're right. And because Carolina could offer them the extra year as well. Yes. What is that going to tell you? To me, that was also being like, I don't know if I want to play here. I want 10 per year over eight years. They're just not going to give that money to Carolina, right? That's a way of ending negotiations quickly. But Jake Genssel has 38 goals in the playoffs in 69 games, 69 games per his career. 38. Yeah. He's been a big time playoff performer and he's proven being a playoff performer. When you watch the playoffs right now, how many guys do you see that can actually score goals consistently? Not many. No. This is a guy that can do that. Stuff about him being too small and all that stuff is completely irrelevant because he comes through in the playoffs when it's the hardest time in the world in the National Hockey League for you to score goals. And he's scored 38 and 69 games. This guy can play in the postseason. I have zero concerns about him, right? The other thing that I like about Genssel and the reason why I'm willing to go to the deep end to get him signed, he solves your power play. Yeah. He's going to be that dynamic, left-handed shot that's good on retrievals, can play in the bumper spot, can move around and can play off Patterson, can play off JT Miller. I don't see a world where if the connects get J Genssel, the connects don't have a top five power play next year. Yeah. Like he solves your power play and you get a big time player with Elias Patterson. To me, it's worth it. And I'd much rather go all in on a player like that than overspend keeping my own free agents. Well, that's the other part of this equation that as time goes on, as I'm doing the walk-in talk or aside from doing the walk-in talk with you guys yesterday on the golf course, and I'm thinking about it because this is how my brain works. I have to think about the Canucks unrestricted free agents at all times of the day. I'm wondering, especially with some of the things that you and we've started to hear, like just how many of these free agents are going to come back. I know the fourth period, Dave Pinota, friend of the show reported Sam Lafferty has even likely to test free agency, not a big surprise there, given the way that his season ended. But now we've heard that essentially with Elias Lindholm, Sam Lafferty, seems that way with Nikita Zadorov as well. Teddy Blooger and Dakota Joshua, there hasn't been as much noise around those two right now. Casey Desmith, we know he's testing free agents, like all these guys. And it's not that they're like, hey, we have to bring back these guys. There's such huge parts of this team. But yeah, you are losing like a third of the team that got you to game seven of the second round to unrestricted free agency this year. That's not an insignificant amount of your roster. No, absolutely not. But the way I looked at the soft season and we talked about this for weeks now, you can't be a better team ceiling wise significantly if all you're doing is returning the entire same team and locking in long term. Yeah. Like you can get better. Sideboard Lee is Patterson. This team kind of maxed out. Yeah. Now there aren't, like we mentioned, we had a show where we talked about where there are guys that can have positive progression. Yeah. For instance, a McKay of even Patterson right now, but right. But then there was also like, yeah, maybe Besser doesn't score 40, right? I already see the text in box being like, second round pick, get rid of him. Get rid of him. Came send him to San Jose. Whatever. Just just do whatever it takes. But so we talked about how, yeah, there are some guys that can balance back, but a lot of guys had their top notch seasons, maybe career, career years, right? And if you look at the court of Joshua, let's say he wants four million. I'm just throwing it out there. Let's say Lindholm wants more than seven. Let's say it's going to cost you 11 million to sign both. That's a chunk of change right there. They combined for 32 goals last year, right? Yeah. Genssel had 30. Mm hmm. And I'm not saying that Lindholm can't score more and that Joshua can't score a bit more either. But if it's going to cost you 11 million or so to sign those two players and what you're getting is maybe 40 goals combined some years, maybe or a perennial 30 goal score. Yeah. Those are a number of things for you, right? And you're paying less than 11 million signing them. Yeah. So like if I'm paying a premium, I'd rather raise the ceiling of this team. And I think you add a guy like Genssel, you add a player that's on a higher level. I think it gives us Canucks team not only a chance to be better this year, but the year beyond that. I think gives you a chance now that you're adding a real high end player alongside JT Miller and Pederson upfront. Plus you have Brock Besser. I don't know. I think the Canucks would be super dynamic if they pulled something like that off. And I think that could really raise their ceiling next season. It's a big player coming available. And I know there is a little bit of debate as to just how much of a superstar Jake Genssel is. But again, as I mentioned off the top of this segment, only 11 players left shot players left shot forwards in the entire league have more, have scored more goals than Jake Genssel over the last three seasons. He's got a hundred and six goals over the last three years. That is a pretty damn good number. And if you just look at points from left shot players among forwards, Jake Genssel ranks 16th on that list. And basically everybody above him is a who's who of the National Hockey League, Kyle Connors, Vashnaho, Sasha Barkov, Johnny Goodrow. Yeah. Like that's the rarefied air that Jake Genssel is in, even though I'm not sure his reputation around the league fits that he is that level of player, that level of production. Yeah. No, for sure. Right. And I see like, you know, I see the point our pond on Twitter says Lindholm is a better player to get than Genssel because shutdown center can get 80 points. He's more valuable than a school goal scoring winger. But who's going to be Pedersen's winger long term? But is, is 25 year old Elias Lindholm signing this contract? No, he hasn't been an 80 point player for quite a few years. And he's not playing with Pedersen. He's not playing with J.T. Miller. How is he getting 80 points? Yeah, he's not getting 80 points. You're talking about a 50 60 point guy. And again, like I like Lindholm a lot. I'm not against the connect signing him, but I'm saying I'd rather do Genssel and you're not solving the who's your winger for Pedersen. And like this text message that just came into a dumbbar, lower text inbox, Genssel can help braze PD ceiling Lindholm and Joshua can. That's a difference. You get a dynamic player that can get them best at a Pedersen too. Yeah. Now you have J.T. and best for going. Now you have Pedersen and Genssel going. The best thing you can do is put your best players in a position to be the best versions of themselves. Isn't that what gives you the most power as a team? Yes. And as like you want to find players that will help maximize Elias Pedersen now. And I know people don't love hearing that because they're like, he's getting 11.6. You should raise the level of players around him. You shouldn't need players to raise his level. It's not it's like we saw with with Philip Ronik and Quinn Hughes this year. Maybe it's it's not that Philip Ronik is the only reason Quinn Hughes leveled up to that ceiling. You know, it worked both ways. Like they turned each other into one of the best pairs in the national hockey league. Yeah. And I think when you potentially or think about adding Jake Genssel to Elias Pedersen's wing, you have the makings of something that could be very formidable. Something that is very difficult for other teams to game plan against. You see it with Florida, how dynamic their top two duos are, whether it's Barkov and Reinhardt or the next one with Bennett and Kachuk having those two in your top six is what has made them, you know, the team that is two, two games away from winning the Stanley Cup. And I think that's something the Canucks need to get to in their top six. I'm not sure Elias Lindholm allows you that. All right. And central roundup, John Mattis is going to join us here in a couple of moments. But in the roundup, a couple of things on the Stanley Cup final, dry title avoids supplementary discipline for his hit on Sasha Barkov. In yesterday's game, Florida did take a two oh series lead. Am I living in an alternate universe where like even the media doesn't think there was a big deal? Like what's going on? Why is this Leon dry side all high hit clearly an elbow to Barkov's head? Yeah. It looks concussed. How is this not a big deal? I don't understand. It should be a big deal. Am I am I am I losing my mind here guys? Well, it's like, what is going on set is the idea that he doesn't even get a fine. It's almost as if the NHL wants us to believe that there is nothing to see here. You know, like that hit isn't as bad as you make it out to be. That hit is completely a slow motion replay type of thing where people are over analyzing it. I mean, even watching the broadcast like nobody even thought it was a big deal in the broadcast it seemed like. Yeah. Like I don't I don't understand it. Like I'm confused. I'm really confused. It did seem understated. Like really understated. It felt personal or it felt purposeful to me when I saw it and like dry side was going in there to get a lick on on Sasha Barkov and it's I kind of I said it on Twitter. It's like a smart move. If you're Lee on dry side all you know you're going to lose. You know you're not going to get suspended because you're Lee on dry side all and you're playing in the Stanley Cup final and you hide it well enough that it's like it doesn't look like maybe you can play it off as an accident and I don't know I did think it would at least be a fine. I mean, remember when McDavid got cross checked if you were like we're losing it over it band? Like people in Edmonton were talking about banning a sushi for the rest of the playoffs. Halberies did speak a little bit today and the tone was more positive on how Sasha Barkov is trending towards game three. But now that you know he's not getting supplementary discipline, why would you not say that? I just I don't know. Like I watched the play and it's like he kind of leaves a clear hit to that and it's like yeah clear hit that had an elbow hit him in the in the face. Yeah. Like I I don't understand. It's a target of the head. It's like and a blind side. Does you watch the game? I watch the game. I don't know what what the game has to do with the fact that he hit the guy in the face. Like I don't know. Like I I don't know. I mean that Bushard got choked out basically and nothing happened there so I mean I don't know. Oh he tapped out. He tapped out so it's okay. It was a wild finish to last night's game. It was it was really wild. I mean I said I've been enjoying the hockey and I think I get what the NHL is doing but this is why like they can't be taken seriously when it comes to supplemental discipline right because it's clear why they're not going to do anything about this. They're down to nothing already Edmondson. Do they want to take you know one of the best players out of the game and like really kill the rest of the series like that's how they're going about it could have at least sent to fine but even that not happening. All right. We're going to get to John Madison his take he recently wrote a great piece on wingers and what makes them special what can make a winger special. Talk to him about Jake Genssel and more on the Stanley Cup final as well. He's coming up on Sportsnet 650. Hey it's bignazar have your say and join me on the people's show with big takes and even bigger bets weekdays three to four on Sportsnet 650 or wherever you get your podcast. (dramatic music)