The Duran Podcast
FT, Zelensky bizarre decisions. F-16 dangerous scheme
All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine. And let's start things off with the F-16 saga. We have an update on the F-16 plan. Is it a plan or is it a scheme or a trick? Because that's the way I'm looking at it. This seems like a very bad idea and it involves Romania and Poland. Anyway, what is going on with the F-16s? Well, it's an incredibly bad scheme and it's an attempted trick. So the idea is that you don't actually base most of the F-16s. I understand they're talking about most of the F-16s in Ukraine itself. The runways haven't been brought to the level where they can operate F-16s. The infrastructure is apparently nowhere near ready. The Russians are able to attack these runways at will and they've been wreaking massive destruction upon them. So the idea is that you keep them in Poland and Romania and the way it's been presented is that they will be stored there, whatever that means, so that they're beyond outside the reach of the Russians. In practice, I think that this is another scheme to try to base F-16s in Polish and Romanian air bases, pretend that that isn't really what's going to happen. And the Russians have previously said that if the F-16s take off from these Polish and Romanian air bases and engage the Russians, then the Russians will come to strike the F-16s in those bases. And again, I've no reason to doubt that this is what the Russians will indeed do. I suspect this was the plan all along because realistically there was never any way that the F-16s could operate from the air bases in Poland, sorry, in Ukraine. It only made sense if they were indeed going to be operated from the bases in Romania and Poland. So you tell people, well, you know, don't worry, we're only storing them there, they're not actually going to be based there. But if you unpink the story based in Poland and Romania is absolutely what this is all about. I'm having a hard time understanding this story to be quite honest. From what I understand, they're going to be based in Romania. From what I gather, most of the activity is going to take place from Romania. They're saying they're just going to be stored there. But that's where the airfield is. Are they going to be taking off from Romania? I've read some reports saying that they're going to take off from Romania and be armed in Ukraine and then run their mission from Ukraine and then go back to Romania. I don't understand, are they going to, they're going from Romania, they're going to land in Ukraine and then take off and get from Ukraine? Or that's just a split fair. That's the fairy tale we've been spun that they're going to take off of Romania, fly into Ukraine, presumably to the big air base at Staro Konstantinov. They'll be armed with all their weapons there. Then they'll take off from the air base in Staro Konstantinov and the others in Ukraine and engage the Russians. I mean, that makes absolutely no military sense whatsoever. Even I'm not a military person. You can see that that is absolute nonsense. I mean, there are so many possibilities for things to go wrong that one can't even begin to count. So clearly, the real objective is to operate the F-16s from the bases in Romania. That's been what they've been planning all along. I think they've been spinning this story because, of course, the Russians have said that they will strike at the bases in Romania. They don't want people in Romania in particular to get too nervous and worried about this so they're selling us this story that they'll be taking off from the bases in Romania, landing in Ukraine, being armed in Ukraine and then we'll fight the Russians. So what happens when the Russians hit the base where they land in Ukraine? What happens when they destroy that on day one? On day one, that bases God. Then what's the story? Well, then what is indeed the story and what does the West do? I mean, this is the problem. I don't understand. This is the truth. This is this. Exactly. I mean, what happens when the Russians strike the base in Romania? There's Article 5 then... No, no, the base in Ukraine. Oh, when the base is in Ukraine, when they destroy the bases in Ukraine? They land in Ukraine, they arm, and then they run their combat mission. Okay, so day one, Russia destroys that base in Ukraine. Yeah, which it has repeatedly done. Well, then, as I said, either if the project is as we pretend as they're pretending as if that is the case, then of course the F-16s can't operate. They're stranded in Romania. They can't fly because they have to be armed in Ukraine. I mean, we can't have F-16s flying into Ukrainian airspace unarmed because that would make no sense. But of course, as I said, that is not the plan. The plan is to operate the F-16s from the bases in Romania. I mean, that is the only thing that makes any kind of sense here. And that clearly is the plan. It's another massive escalation. They're lying. But they're lying, exactly. It's another... What a surprise. But I mean, they're lying. I mean, it's another massive escalation. They're doing something which is incredibly dangerous. They're trying to tell everybody, "Don't worry, the Russians won't attack the bases in Romania because in fact, the F-16s won't be armed there. They'll be armed in Ukraine when they fly into Ukraine and land on the airspace in Ukraine." They're just stored in Romania. They're just stored there. They're just stored there. Exactly. Okay. Yeah. We're not a party to this war. Okay. We're not a party to this war. Yeah. So let's talk about Zelensky a bit. And he's in Germany. You would think that after the EU elections, Germany would cancel this recovery event that they're having. Maybe they would tell Zelensky, "Stay away. It's not a good time. Let's postpone this event and let's postpone your trip." No. No. Come to Germany. Zelensky. Let's have a big event. Ursula's there. Schultz is there. They're plotting Zelensky. They're talking about Ukraine and the European Union. Meanwhile, Zelensky is facing a lot of trouble. A lot of trouble back home. He obviously doesn't want to go back to Kiev. The Financial Times is hinting at the fact that Zelensky might very well be on the way out. What is going on here? Well, let's just talk about his visit to Germany, which is, of course, partly all about, you know, Ukraine making its EU membership application. This, as you said, directly after European Parliament elections in which anti-Ukraine, in EU parties, the IFD, Saravagan ex-party, they've surged. But, of course, we don't pay any attention to that. We don't concern ourselves with what the German people are trying to communicate to us. We ignore completely the words of the head of the German stock market, the German bus, who has been saying that the economic policy of the Schultz government has been catastrophic. We pay never attention to any of this. Our priority remains project Ukraine, clearly in Germany, we're far more comfortable dealing with him than we are with foreign people and addressing their concerns. The wooden-headedness of the European leadership in this is absolutely astonishing. And their arrogance is incredible. I mean, they're now going to be all moving on to their conference in Lucerne, where only they will be present. Even the Americans, I mean, the Americans are sending Kamala Harris, which tells you what the Americans actually think of this conference. So, I mean, it's going to be the European political class talking to itself applauding Zelensky, even as it becomes increasingly clear that the European public is cooling and turning against him. And not just the European public, because it's now increasingly obvious to me that within Ukraine, the government, people within the elite, are now turning against him. And they are being encouraged to do so by powerful people within the United States. And that's where we come back to the Financial Times article, because we know this is the second article that the Financial Times has published in, I think, just over two weeks about Zelensky, and which is deeply critical of him. If you remember, there was an article about two weeks ago, which said that Zelensky was becoming paranoid, that he was becoming increasingly out of touch, that his relationships with Biden and the US administration had become awful, that he was constantly demanding the impossible from the Americans that officials within his own government were becoming increasingly exasperated with him. Well, what's happened now is that there has been the resignation from the Ukrainian government of the infrastructure minister. This is not unusual. It happens a lot in Ukraine. And by the way, and just for the record, the infrastructure system in Ukraine has been plagued with corruption issues. The infrastructure ministry was said charged with creating all the great fortified lines in Harkov and elsewhere, which never existed. There might be good reasons why this particular minister has been asked to resign or has resigned, which have no connection to what we're being told by the Financial Times, that the Financial Times is spinning this story as another example of the chaos and dysfunction within the Ukrainian government. We're told that Zelensky and his officials have been freezing out this official for some time. He's not been invited to intend key meetings, including meetings in which he interacts with Western officials. The Western officials supposedly have liked him and have worked well with him, that they're angry with his dismissal. And there is a comment by a Ukrainian official who chooses, obviously, to remain anonymous, that this is another one of those inexplicable, supposedly inexplicable, personal decisions that Zelensky is making that is causing concern and alarm amongst Ukraine's supporters in the West. So it's another article appearing in the Financial Times telling us that Zelensky's government is collapsing, that is becoming dysfunctional, that Zelensky is making inexplicable and bizarre decisions, and that obviously he is antagonizing the Western powers, and that it looks increasingly as if he's not the right person to go on leading Ukraine. I cannot help but think that articles like this, planted in the Financial Times, strongly near liberal, near calm newspaper, are fervently supportive of the project Ukraine, very, very close to the Biden administration, extremely close to the Biden administration. The fact that these articles are appearing, one after the other, is a clear sign that the Americans are losing confidence in Zelensky, and that exactly as Putin said, they're preparing to move him out. Yeah, but the Europeans, the EU, were at least a part of the EU, faction Ursula, Schultz and Alina, these guys, they want to keep Zelensky in. I think that's basically the only thing that's holding Zelensky in power at the moment is this EU group of people that for some reason, maybe they're completely invested in Zelensky, whatever it is, they don't want to see Zelensky go, and they're showing him as much support as they possibly can. Absolutely, that's exactly correct. Of course, they're doing that. They're going to all turn up to his conference in Lucerne. It's absolutely clear now, by the way, that Zelensky was the major organizer of the conference in Lucerne. Apparently, he's the person, not the Swiss, who's been sending out all the invitations and doing all of that, which confirms your analysis, that it was all about getting the global community to legitimize him as president. But all right, most countries are either going to send very low ranking delegations, or are going to boycott this thing completely. Only the Europeans are there. But notice again, that the Americans are sending, they're only sending Kamala Harris. Biden himself is not going, which is, to my mind, a significant vote of no confidence in Zelensky. The Europeans are backing Zelensky, but the reality is, as everybody knows, that it is the United States that runs the show in Kiev. So, if the Americans decide that Zelensky must go, go, he will. And all of these people, Analina, Uxula, Olaf, and the others, who are crowding around Zelensky, telling him, "You know, you're a great man. You're the hero of the hour. You're the person we completely and holy support." Again, they're quite likely, if they're not careful, well, of course, they're never careful, but they're very likely to find that the rug has been pulled underneath them, again, by the Americans, when the Americans decide that Zelensky must go, which I think is starting to come. By the way, I'm also getting the sense that the British, who are obviously joined to the Americans up the hip, that they're cooling on Zelensky as well. So, just saying. So, you know, the Anglo-Americans are the people who make the decisions in Kiev, not the Germans, not the French, not the Italians, not the Dutch, or the Belgians, and certainly not Uxula. And as I said, they're, you know, embracing Zelensky, but if he's out, he's out, and they will look incredibly foolish when that happens, and will the Americans care? Of course not. Does Sunak go into the Peace Conference? Does that signal that the UK is supporting Zelensky, or it's meaningless, Sunak? It's meaningless. It's completely meaningless, because he's going to be out in a few weeks anyway. So, I mean, nobody takes Sunak at all seriously any longer. So, I think that it is meaningless, and the room is in Britain, is that when the election is over, and the Conservatives crash, Sunak will leave British politics and Britain completely, and he and his wife will go to the United States. To work for Obama, that's my prediction. To work for Obama, yeah, that's my prediction. That's why Obama was a dead doubt. If you're dead anyway, that's just a guess. Let's talk about another front, possibly opening up, that's Sumi. Fifth, a fifth front. What are you hearing? What do you... This is a very strong... The possibility of Sumi. This is a very, very strange business. So, there's a village in Sumi region, Sumi regions, a big region, lying west of Kharkov region. There's been lots of speculation over the last couple of weeks that the Russians are about to advance in force into Sumi region. Now, the key thing to understand is that Sumi region lies quite close to Kiev itself. If the Russians were to deploy hundreds of thousands of troops in Sumi region, as some people in Kiev have been saying, that would bring those troops very close to Kiev. In fact, we might start getting the siege of Kiev too, only with a much more powerful army than the one we saw in 2022. I mean, that would be a real crisis for Ukraine. So, the Ukrainians are very, very nervous and very, very worried and frightened about this. And Zelensky, in particular, it seems, is in a state of panic that this might happen. So, yesterday, we got these reports that a village in Sumi region had been occupied by the Russians. And indeed, the Russians are there. And when I say the Russians, it turns out that these are... what you might call irregular troops of the Russian military. I mean, they are part of the Russian military system. But they seem to be made up of Chechen forces, of the Chechen forces, and ex-people from the Wagner organization. Anyway, they've crossed the border. They've occupied this village. There's an awful lot of shelling and bombing by the Russian military going on in the area. But it's not clear for the moment that there's a real plan by the Russians or that this is a real plan by the Russians to advance beyond this village. So, what exactly is going on? Maybe the Russians are testing the Ukrainian defenses. Maybe this is just a reconnaissance force. Maybe it's the first stage of an offensive or maybe they want to spook Zelensky even more. They're now scared Zelensky is. And so, they occupy a village in Sumi region. That's going to cause Zelensky to get hysterical with his generals, which he apparently is most of the time now. Call them, say, "We got a crisis in Sumi region. We got to divert even more troops to Sumi region." And to try to stabilize the situation there, because the Russians are coming, they're about to march on Kiev. I can't afford to leave Sumi region. We can't afford to leave Sumi region. Unguarded, that will strip other Ukrainian forces along the front lines of even more troops. It will draw off even more Ukrainian reserves. It will thin out the lines even further, and that will enable the Russians to attack even more strongly in other places. It's very difficult at this moment in time to know what the Russians are planning, and they want it that way. They want to keep all of us guessing. And of course, the person they want to keep guessing most of all is Zelensky himself, and they're doing it with great skill. But anyway, they've occupied this village. We'll see what they do next. All right, let's wrap up the video with other news from the front line. What else is going on? Well, it is more of the same only. It's in some ways getting faster. So over the last two weeks, lots of talks that the Ukrainians were going to organise some kind of counterattack in Harkov region, that they were going to push the Russians back across the border. I suspect that is what Zelensky and maybe Sizky promised the Americans. They said that you give us the permission to launch strikes deep inside Russia. If we get it, we will launch these strikes deep inside Russia. That will enable us to go back on the counterattack in the Harkov area. We'll push the Russians back, push them back across the border, even occupy maybe some parts of Russia, some of the border villages, which we've been trying to capture for a long time, and that will main might force Putin into negotiations. I suspect this is one of the discussions that has been going on. Anyway, there have been sporadic Ukrainian attempts to counterattack in Harkov region. Every one of them has failed, and the information that we're getting, and it's now confirmed by pictures of film and all that, is that it's the Russians in Harkov region who are still advancing. They seem to be capturing more and more at the standard Volchansk, and they seem to be outflanking the Ukrainians in the other place that has been fought over, which is a place called Libsy. But in a sense, this remains still a sideshow. The main fighting is in Donbas, as it has always been. Now, the Russians have apparently come very close now to capturing a district of Chassafyar, which is at the very eastern end of Chassafyar, west of an aqueduct that cuts through Chassafyar. The Russians are very close to capturing that district. Out of heavily fortified, they've got troops to the north and south of Chassafyar. It looks like there's going to be a major Russian attack on Chassafyar at some point over the next few weeks. Almost certainly, Chassafyar is going to fall. That will create another massive hole in Ukrainian defense lines. They've accepted the Ukrainians themselves admit. If they lose Chassafyar, the way is open for the Russians to capture all kinds of other towns and to reach Kramatorsk, the big city in Donbas, still under Ukrainian control, and to advance even further towards the Nipur, if that's what they choose to do. So this is a very important battle, and the Ukrainians are losing it. And elsewhere, another, we had more news this morning that in the Avdevka or Cheretino area where the Russians have punched a huge hole in Ukrainian defenses. They're making that hole bigger. They apparently, allegedly, the reports are saying they've captured another important strategic village there called Novo Alexanderovka that they did it this morning. And it looks as if not only is that hole getting bigger, but now the Russians are reaching the main supply lines that the Ukrainians use to keep their troops in Donbas equipped, and they're becoming very, very close to Ukraine's main supply bases in Donbas as well. So it's a crisis that gets worse by the day, and which the Ukrainians show no ability to reverse. They're desperately short of men. I mean, I think you've seen the pictures of the old men, you know, weighed down with their helmets, and that apparently is, so I'm told, pretty commonplace size amongst Ukrainian soldiers now. There's more reports that Ukrainian soldiers in many places are fleeing rather than standing up to fight, which is a change from what we saw earlier in the war. There's fewer and fewer signs of Ukrainian tanks. The Ukrainian tanks are becoming few in number. The only infantry fighting vehicles, you know, the vehicles that the Ukrainians actually use to transport infantry in. The only ones that I see anymore are the ones the Americans have supplied, the bradleys and the strikers, and they are relatively few in number, and the Russians have been systematically annihilating Ukraine's artillery systems. I mean, there are fewer and fewer guns, firing fewer and fewer shells. So the situation on the front lines right across Ukraine is getting weaker. And, you know, there's also confirmation that the energy system is now in deep crisis, the economy, the fact that they're trying to enlist more and more men means there's fewer men working in the economy now. It's apparently now having a major impact on the economy together with the collapse in the electricity system. The grieve near the Ukrainian currency has gradually started to slip, apparently at the rate of about 2% a month. That may not sound big, but in a situation where the economy is effectively contracting and is no longer supplying goods, it's perhaps a warning sign that a really severe inflation crisis is around the corner, despite all the Western health. From every conceivable point of view, from every perspective, the situation is grim. And in any rational universe, in a responsible Ukrainian leadership at this point would understand that the war is lost and would be tried to open negotiations with the Russians. Zelensky won't do that. There doesn't seem to be anyone else in Kiev who's prepared to do that either. They're quarrelling and fighting and intriguing with each other. The Americans want to keep the war going. And so do the Europeans, because they have their own particular political investment that they're worried about. And so the war goes on, even as Ukraine itself is being destroyed. Yeah, just a final thought that listening to everything that's happening. A big picture of you. It looks like the Russians are waiting for the right moment to crash the whole thing down. Absolutely. That's how it looks. They may be timing it to crash it all down. Harkov direction, Chasov-Yar, Sumi, the economy, the Grivna, Zelensky's troubles. If they time this thing right, the whole thing is just going to collapse slowly and then all at once. That may be what could be happening. They should negotiate this thing right away. Absolutely. I agree with that. I think by the way, a lot of people speculate about Russian timing and why the Russians are doing this in this kind of way. And I'm wondering, I think what the Russians are doing always is that they want to make sure that they have all their pieces in place. I mean, they've been training large numbers of troops over the last year and a half. And I think that not all of those troops are ready. And it was very interesting that at the St Petersburg Conference, which has just ended in St Petersburg in Russia, Putin actually said, you know, we've been taking it very slow, but we might suddenly decide to move fast to hurry. And I think that's a thing that people ought to remember. Attrition wars, we were saying this, by the way, in the opening weeks of this war, attrition wars, when they end, they end suddenly. Everything falls apart at once. It happened in the First World War. It happened in the American Civil War. It happened, by the way, in Vietnam. And the front lines for a long time seem stable, but they become thinner and more fragile. And then suddenly, everything collapses in on itself, very dramatically, taking a lot of people by surprise. All right, we will end it there at the durandatlockus.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, but shoot Telegram, Rockfin, and Twitter, X, and go to the durand shop, use the code football 24 and pick up some football merch. Take care. [Music]