Are we seeing the revitalization of conservative civilization? All over the world, it's been a massive backlash against globalization, its leftist leadership, and its anti-cultural liberal values. And it's just the beginning. I'm Dr. Steve Turley. I believe the liberal globalist world is at its brink, and a new conservative age is rising. Join me every day as we examine these worldwide trends, discover answers to today's toughest challenges, and together, learn to live in the present in life of even better things to come. This is Turley Talks. All right, gang, we are live. Come on in, one and all. We do have a very, very special live stream for you today, this Tuesday afternoon, July the 2nd. We are here today with the one and only Rich Barris of the People's Pond. It reaches busy crunch in the numbers, getting all the front lines, look at the fall up from the debacle on Thursday night, and he's here today to give us the latest on the damage that really is coming out of that. 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All right, we are honored to have with us once again the great rich barris, the people's pundit, you got to click on the links below and subscribe to Rich's numerous channels. Definitely his YouTube channel, go on over to rumble, subscribe to his rumble channel, check out his Twitter feed. I check it out daily or hourly every day. He is awesome. Rich will not say this, he's a humble guy, so I'm going to, Rich is considered by far one of the single best, if not the best, polling analyst out there bar none. Okay, he is the man. And that's why you don't want to just subscribe to his channels. Again, you definitely want to do what I've done. You want to become a member of his locals community. Just you have to just click on that link below or go to peoplespundit.locals.com. That's peoplespundit.locals.com. You will be on the front lines of the best and I mean the best. Yes, as they say in Nacho Libre, polling data and analysis out there. Plus, he's an awesome rock guitar player. And that's probably the most important attribute of them all, Rich. Welcome my friend, great to see you as always. And I appreciate that interest. Thanks for having me as always. It's good to be here. It's good to be here. My heavens, you work so hard and it's just, it's amazing. The work you do is just so consistently, the quality is amazing. Look, before we get into the polling, I'm just curious. I mean, you're a student of politics. Can you just give us your assessment of how significant that decision was yesterday coming down from the Supreme Court, basically given Trump was, as far as the leftists concerned, making the president king now, given Trump broad executive and presumed immunity. We're now getting word. They're delaying the July sentencing date in Manhattan. I mean, for you, how significant was that decision? I really wish the left in this country would take the time to learn and read. And that's not all of them, of course, but certainly the talking heads, the mouthpieces, the surrogates, you know, oh, I guess Joe Biden could just drone strike the Supreme Court. I saw from one person and they put this person on TV sometimes. It's just crazy because, of course, that is not at all what we're talking about here. And it would just be a better situation for all of us if they would stop being so ignorant, right? So this is very significant, folks, because, you know, we get wrapped up in Trump. Certainly the left does. But I'd like to tell my viewers that this was about voter sovereignty. If they were to neuter the presidency by the president constantly here, she looking over her shoulder, what's going to happen to me when I get out of office? And I can't do this. I'll be blackmailed. I can't do that. I'll be prosecuted. This was the last. First of all, it's ever, it's only ever been the only office in the executive branch where you can enact your, you can enact your will. And hopefully they will carry out the agenda that the sovereign voter wants them to carry out. The House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate has abdicated their duty to conduct oversight over the executive branch, over any branch of government. All the FBI director has to say is I can't comment on an ongoing investigation. And all the CIA and the rest of them have to say is I can't disclose sources and methods. And then it's gone. And there's never any accountability or responsibility. The presidency is literally the last and only place where the sovereign voter, I mean, the idea of voter sovereignty in this country is the cornerstone of it all. And I think that's why I really love public, you know, public polling the way that I do. Because it really is all about that. And if we cannot exercise our sovereignty as the voter, then this is all for nothing. This is a show. And in fact, if the Supreme Court, and I'm not being hyperbolic here, if the Supreme Court did not rule as they did, and they pleasantly surprised me by laying out a lot of guidelines that went a lot further than people thought, if they did not do that, then the presidency, as we know, it would have been destroyed. And that would have been it. So it's not hyperbolic to say the Supreme Court saved the presidency last week. They saved the presidency from a bunch of tactics who don't care about the future of the country. Right. Right. We were talking about before our live stream. And I was listening to your live stream yesterday inside the numbers. And when I was going for one of my walks, I like to say one of my runs. But it's probably 80% walk. And that's what almost made me kind of stammer. I didn't even think about it that way. But you said that yesterday. You said that what the Supreme Court did. And that's how our government should work, right? This judicial branch saved the executive branch. Did judicial branch rose to the occasion? We were able to sideline the three radicals who just, I mean, it seemed to me that minority, the descending opinion was so bizarre. And some of the, it's like they didn't read the majority. I don't think they, at all. I don't think they did. Well, or at least they just had, they gave some talking points and marching orders, as it were, for the, for the Kool-Aid drinkers. But yes, I think most constitutional scholars, my name's sake, Jonathan Turley, for sure. We're very, very happy about it. The decision went far and beyond what anyone was actually estimating. Because it was the right move. And I think back in times like this, I like to take a step back. I mean, in times like this, when I'm, especially if I'm analyzing and people are wondering, you know, what's rich going to say about this? And I would say to Trump supporters, don't even be excited that this decision helps your guy. If this was Bernie Sanders as the president, if this was Barack Obama, I would be 100% opposed. If the rolls are reversed, 100% opposed to Republicans doing what their, what Democrats are doing to Trump. And that's, it's like, eventually Trump is going to be gone. Trump is not going to be around forever. The world will carry on the country for better or for worse. And you know, depending on the outcome of the election, we'll carry on without him. And we have to be, we have to live with the, like the, the rumble. We have to pick up the pieces of the dismantled institutions, the rules and norms, the rule of law, the rule of law, the presumption of innocence, all of this that they have, like, shredded in the name of trying to stop Donald Trump. They are narrow minded little people who are leading us down the primrose path to authoritarianism. And they don't even care. And it's unbelievable to me. It is unbelievable. Don't you have children? Don't you have grand, do you have grandchildren? I actually know. I guess to some of them, I do not have an answer anymore. That's the thing. That's why they're trying to get our kids. Some can, some kill them. I mean, no, but I mean, it's crazy. Come on. And I love the way you framed it. You framed a big picture. This is about the institution. This isn't about any particular person. Given that, what do you think are going to be the consequences going forward with Jack's Miss cases, the Fulton County case? Are they, are they more, I'm hearing more or less their D.O.A. at this point? Yeah. They're done. They're done. This is, this is what to me, and I'm not a lawyer. I'm just saying from what talking to different lawyers. And then also there is a political calculation. And the lawyers I like to talk to always try to give it to me in the most legales way. And this is what I think is a lawyer. But of course, they're living in a dream world and there are certainly political calculations to these things. And Jack Smith, of course, I mean, he destroyed Chevron trying to go after Trump. He destroyed one of the cornerstones of their, their achievements. He didn't care. So now at some point, they're going to have to take stock and say, did this do more damage than it was ever supposed to achieve for us? And I think the answer to that is clearly yes. Not only in public opinion, but to things like that, for instance. And I do think that there is, again, a political, I, because the Supreme Court went so far, there were, it went so far as the layout standards, the presumptive, the presumption standard that they landed on. It's so huge. The bar is very, very high. You shall act very hot. For people who don't know, it's very simple. For official acts, they're immune. For unofficial acts, you would give, they give them the presumption that those were still made within the official capacity because in Jack Smith's entire case, specifically, so with Fannie Willis, you have to tell the jury that you know what was going in the mind of Donald, what was going on in the mind of Donald Trump, his state of mind. And the justices said, you can't do that. He's the president. And there are too many things that you're not factoring in. And he's got to consider, and maybe you have the luxury to sit back and do that. But the president, no matter who it is, does not. And then also, there were warnings in there to the lower court. Yeah, it's remanded, but don't bring us this crap again. If people who don't want it, people who don't read Supreme Court opinions very often, I do. I think I'm fascinated by them. That's the not so veiled way for the majority of the court to say, if you send something like us, like this up to us again, the next one isn't going to be so nice. And I remember, you know, Neil Gorsuch, with all the immigration, you had these like district level judges putting national injunctions nationwide injunctions on Donald Trump's immigration policy. And once Neil Gorsuch said, this is squarely within the scope of presidential authority. And we are tired of settling us for you. One when he did that, that was it ended, because they know what that means. They're going to be embarrassed, humiliated, and they're going to make you make an example out of you. Wow. That's awesome. That's perfect rich. Let's talk about the state of the race here. And I want to frame this in a sort of a three-fold triangular structure, because I learned this from you. And so I think it would be pretty easy here. As I understand from being a member of your locals group, there really are three, not just one, it's not just the debate. There were three dynamics that are working together to cumulatively, in effect, destroy Biden. So you've got the backlash against the law fairs you were just talking about. You've got his record, his actual presidential record that is just, I mean, it is just killing him, and then you've got the debate debacle. So let's do it in reverse or let's start with the debate debacle. You're a pollster, you're an analyst, you're actually conducting as I understand it a poll right now. We are. Yeah. It's wrapping up. How? I mean, just give it to us, man. How bad was this debate for Biden? Typically doing what I do, you know, any suffologist will tell you when you look back at a debate, you're not all that predictive. There's a mixed record there and Alan Lickman is an idiot and he's very pissed. I'm sorry, but it's true. He's the keys model. He cherry pits. Very subjective. He cherry picks what he thinks, you know, while Obama lost the debates. No, we didn't. He lost the first debate. He won the second and third debate. I don't know what you're talking about. George Bush lost the debates against John Kerry. No, he lost the first one. He won the second and third one, right? So, right. So he makes this stuff up as he goes. So they're, but at best, there really is a mixed record. And the two examples people always use in this industry is a more recent one. Ronald Reagan saying, you know, are you better off than you were four years ago is one and only debate that year. And it's thought to have had a pretty big impact on the election. Some people would argue and I would agree with at least some of what they say. And then you have the 1960 debate between Kennedy and Nixon. If you were listening on the radio, you thought Kennedy won. I mean, not Nixon won. He was much more versed, well versed on the policy and everything that was going on, of course, because he was vice president. And if you were watching on TV, you thought that Kennedy won because Nixon was firing and he looked awkward and Kennedy was sharp, right? So those are the two other than that. It's always very difficult to say a debate at a huge impact. Here's why this one did. All right. People have been seeing the memes and the jokes. What happened last Thursday is that the country who are normies, who really, truly are persuadable, they couldn't hide it from them anymore. And then even their own party, who the media was lying to and they were meant, they were duped. I mean, just folks put it in a context a week before the New York Times and the Associated Press, the NBC News were all running stories saying that these are cheap fakes and they're not real. All right. So these people even feel deceived and duped now. And while the most of them, if they voted still would vote for Biden, the damage, well, that's not true. The damages, some might throw their vote away third party and some may not vote at all because they cannot vote for a mentally handicapped person. This was beyond a he had a bad night. This was, oh my God, Republicans are telling the truth. The president is senile, I'm scared. So we're hearing from people that this is not funny. This isn't a joke. And yeah, while people can meme and they understand all that at the core of it, if they're serious thinkers who are tuning in now and are deciding what was going on with the presidential race, they already tended to favor Trump because of one of the other parts of the pyramid you were talking about. I mean, the records, it's an A/B contrast and they were picking Trump period, they're picking A. But then now it's on top of that we have this. So the last poll we did did tighten a little bit and Trump still had a lead. This poll is ugly and there's only one we had since the last poll, the convictions and the debate. Those are the two major events we had didn't seem to be any impact after the convictions whatsoever. So what changed? What did it? It's the debate and we can tell from what people are saying. This is going to probably be the worst result for Joe Biden that we have ever published. It's bad. It is very, very bad. And I understand there are going to be some groups that are saying, I don't know, I'm going to decide it. Maybe I'm even going to vote for Trump and some of them will go home, you know, but right now for an incumbent president, folks, to potentially be under 40% of the vote in a national poll. I don't know yet. Don't twist my arm. But in some of the days that we tracked this week, he was at like 39, then he'd pop back up to like 41. This is ugly all at a time when Donald Trump for the first time in the last, what it's been, I guess, six months, a little bit more maybe where Donald Trump for the first time ever in the history of our polling has hit or exceeded 50% of the vote. So statistically significant that's not happened since he started running and our polling has not happened since it is, you know, the advent of Trump in 2016, 2015, really, it has not been the case. We've never found this. So here we have Trump hovering around 50% and Joe Biden in deep trouble. You know, this, you know, if I had a ball target, I would say this is probably going to be somewhere in the neighborhood of Trump plus six to eight points. It's bad. It's really bad. You know, again, call me on it. We'll find out what exactly it is when it, when it comes, but you've been doing this as long as I have, you learn how to glean things from the numbers. This is, this is, I would, I honestly, yeah, I don't know what I would do if I was Joe Biden. You're going to take it. Now that you, and I know you know this just for our audience, so that would be corroborated by the CNN poll that just dropped today, the national poll, which is Trump up by six. New York Times poll that dropped just the other day. I think they had in a five way race. I think it got Trump got up to eight plus eight, something like that. Okay. And then what was the other one? There was another one that had him up like five point two. You said it's a very good poll. And I'm dead. This Harvard. Harvard Harris came out, yeah, six. Yeah. Um, oh, and, uh, that's a adolescent and I hate to say this, but at listen, tell is the only poll, uh, that, uh, was slightly more accurate than us in the, in the 2020 national light, they don't poll state, right, slightly. And by slightly, I mean, zero, wow, I mean, according to all that technical sin, in the shining, just two square inches per second. That's really, really kind of burns because you're looking at the popular vote and you're like, wow, I'm in a nail, you know, and you're looking at the aggregate on our CP and you're like, none of these jokers are coming close. And then you find out atlas, it did it again. Because they did it to us in 16 to and I'm like, you, they're good. They're very good polling firm and good for them. Yeah. Yeah. They're all, they're all showing the same thing that robbery, but they don't, they don't poll state. Oh, okay. Right. Right. So it's only national. They only do that. As far as I know, the only one that's really publicized is national. They may have state polling out there, but it's not widely circulated. I, I wish they would. Yeah. I wish they would do it. The methodology seems to be amazing. So, so in effect, you're saying we, we, I mean, not in the way that any, any Biden supporter would want, but in effect, we did see history. It looks like on Thursday night, something akin to 1969, probably even farm for, well, it'll turn out to be even far more consequential than 60 or 18. I do think that this one is going to go down in the history books as one that they're going to make. That would probably be the strongest case for debates mattering again. And you may even see like a reemphasis on the importance of debate, debates after this industry began to come to terms and come to grips with the idea that maybe we over high rise things. Right. But this isn't that it is not simply the case that somebody had a better performance and that somebody delivered their vision better, right? I mean, all the things we kind of like obsess over and talk about when we talk about debates, this was very different. This was the country, the remainder of the country who didn't know already, understanding and coming to grips with the fact that the media lied to them, the democratic party lied to them. Forget about the emperor has no close. The emperor has dementia and it's so funny. I'll share this with you. So when we're watching Thursday night, I was following you, you were on my Twitter feed that I was following and a few others. And then yeah, and then something weird happened with locals in rumble. I don't know what the heck was going on there, but I don't believe in consequences. And all of a sudden the independent content creators can't get on that independent content created. That was weird. Well, I mean, you pivoted well, you went right to Twitter. That was awesome. And I could tell it was like it was happening to everyone right around the same time. I was just, I was on my couch, had my laptop was watching it, had all the different commentaries. Like, I don't know. I think it was probably about a half an hour 40, maybe around their first break, 40 minutes, 45. The consensus was it doesn't, this isn't going to come down to who answered what when. It is a come down to Trump, you know, hammering. I mean, again, great commentary, you know, hammering the southern border when you need to answering the abortion issue perfectly like you had to and all this stuff. Yeah. No, he gave it. Like you said, that's a textbook for any Republican right now. But, but right around that time, like 40, 45 minute mark, he was just amazing consensus where everyone was saying the story here is the world is seeing what we've been seeing these last three and a half years. Everyone is seeing it, and it is stunning to them. I mean, like you said, the normies, I think who just, they're not nerds like we are. They're checked out. They're living their lives. God bless them. I wish we could. We were actually just talking about that earlier, wish we could just sit back, wish we could do it to not have the weight of the world on our shoulders and all that. And, and they just happened to tune in just to see what was going on because CNN is with the quick little headlines that they would see in their browser when they fire up the computers. CNN is telling us everything's hunky door. You know, Trump, the evil, you know, orange man is going to get put behind bars. Oh, good. That must be good. And then they tune in and it, it literally, I mean, I've heard one of the reframes that I've heard to describe it was jaw dropping, just they couldn't believe it. But what makes, again, your analysis so awesome is that this is just where it begins in terms of what's weighing Biden down because you've been talking about, I mean, it's not just, it's not just the debate. It's his job performance. I mean, it's his approval numbers. Can you just flesh that out just real briefly just in terms of how that's crossing them. So he's already having issues in struggling with how he's handling his job. The White House always seems to think is if you, you'll ask them, they'll say, he did great things. The problem is a communications problem. And we're just not conveying it to the American, the American people. That's not true. The problem is that they do know what he did and they don't like it. It's not popular. He is not a popular president and he is not his positions are not popular. And on every in this poll that we're doing, wait until people see the trust to handle issues. Who do you trust more to handle X, Y, Z, Donald Trump or Joe Biden? Trump is clobbering him. And that is one of his biggest issues. By the way, the number one issue is is inflation and cost of living. And of course, they trust Trump to handle this issue by a massive margin. Are you? Sorry, Richard, sure, it's not saving democracy. Like Fox News poll told us a couple of weeks back or these people are out of their minds. That was clearly an outlier look. They had urban America tied and they had by the world of America. I literally sent there a polling editor who asked me about our methodology before they covered a poll, the Rust Belt poll, which they did cover, I'll give them that. I sent back an email to them and I said, are you sure you guys didn't mislabel your area demographic? Like you need to check. This is bad. And if you did not, this needs to be published with the caveat. This is a joke and you will, you're going to be made fun of and humiliated until you as we are doing now, exactly as we are doing now. But they were widely criticized by even left-wing experts on Twitter. Yeah. They see an end. They were like, this doesn't really make sense at all. So yeah, I guess that's part of, you just brought up that issue, preserving democracy a year ago, a year and a half ago even, if we were to ask people who do you trust more to preserve democracy, preserving protect democracy, Joe Biden would have had this massive lead on that. But because of the law fair, which is the other side of this issue, because of the law fair, they overstepped. And now too many voters see him as the threat to democracy and the law fair. It's like a very, very common sense story to tell. Your presidency sucks. You're unpopular. Your policies stink. The country's hurting. And you're going after the guy who was a better president than you. Everyone thinks he's a better president than you. The majority does and wants to reelect him again. So obviously you're persecuting him and trying to put him in prison because you can't win. It's such an easy story to tell. Now that issue, if it's not tied, Trump has a slight edge. It's unbelievably how they forfeited this hand because they are, again, because their fanatics and fanatics don't think rationally, they don't think about what the damage will be. Will the true blowback be their own Metro people? Yeah. You know, if you see where they eat lunch, guys, you know, I know if you're watching this show, Dr. Steve does a great job explaining to you how the ruling class works. They really thought that they would be tea and crumpets, pinky, you know, in the air, appalling. He's a felon. You know, meanwhile, they've been telling the country for decades, get, you know, give a rapist the second chance, give a murder or a second chance. So all of a sudden they're stunned that the country doesn't care about a felony. You know, you're the one who did this. Make your bed. You made your bed now sleep. Same thing with Joe Biden. That's the story of it all. That's the amazing thing, even with the primaries away, they were the primary that talk about a people who have to sleep in the bed they made gang. If you want to ask richer questions, just click on that link below. Remember, unfortunately, we've been demonetized by YouTube. So just go to fight.turleytalks.com. Click on that link. Sign up for any levels. Support your life. Whatever works for you. You have instant access to our private virtual platform where you can ask rich your questions. He's very kindly here to answer that. Yeah, you know, let's kind of close that loop here with the blowback against the weaponized legalism, the law fair. Obviously, it's taking away an issue that was to their advantage a few months ago. But it also seems to be the heart of what's happening in terms of this realignment among non-white working class voters, that you were the first one to be seeing. You need, and people need to know that. I love, I name drop, you know, one of the things that got grilled on me when I was a PhD student is you've got to make sure you cite, you got to cite, you got to cite people. My name dropping is my oral form of citation. And I'll just never forget when you started talking about this. And this was months ago, this was like at least six months ago, that you were seeing that more than that, non-white working class, beginning to move over to Trump. How much is that the blowback of the law fair played into that? I got mocked by media for saying that the law fair made Trump relatable among non-white voters. I have thousands and thousands of interviews with non-white voters and filled with examples of them telling us just that. This system has been like this for a long time. It's just that white people didn't, it didn't happen to them. And then so they didn't really care. Now it's happening to Trump and everyone gets to see it. He's our boy. It's like, you know, get slapped with a felony. You're in the fam. Yeah. And now you know what I'm dealing with and you can be our champion. You know, like this is, and media seems to think that was like a joke and that was funny. They seem to think that was a joke and funny. Tell me you're a stupid white liberal privilege idiot with no black friends without telling me you're a stupid liberal white privilege idiot with no black friends, because only a stupid liberal privilege idiot with no black friends would think that's funny. You know, how many minutes or days or time, and seconds have you got clocked in an American ghetto in this country? This is how they feel. And they were ignored even by their own party for a very long time. And now they made a billionaire white guy from Queens relatable to them. And if you think about it, it kind of makes sense. He's always been a pop culture icon, even in that community, those communities. And then they always kind of like had a, you know, you know, if you're successful, you know, you made it if you're like a Trump, you know, you know, you've, you know, you're the man, you know, you got it, you, you got it down. If you're, if you're, you know, if you're like Donald Trump and everyone wants to aspire to have their name in gold, like Trump, man, he's the dog, you know, so it's an easy transition. And I don't understand how people are having a hard time comprehending this. And then there's this other element to this, which is, there's only two groups in this country that really have been trending democratic white college educated voters and seniors to a degree. Yeah. Yeah. Now they have been polling more democratic than they vote. Like the New York Times poll in 2020 had Biden winning seniors 50, 46 or 48, 42, something like that. You know, about six points and he did they, he did not want Trump won seniors. So Trump tends to do better with them than he polls. That being said, we saw it as well. And there was this feeling, Stevie, there was this feeling like this won't happen in this country. And this law fair is just a show. And then when they took it that far, you know, you had the boomers and above going, Oh man, no, this really is happening. Like it took them, they had to see it with their own eyes. They had to hear it with their own ears. They didn't really believe that it would ever go down this road. And now that it has, it's turned a lot of them back off from the, from the Democrats. Then what people would say, why do they want to even vote Democrat in the first place? They're in the golden years of their life. They're adverse to serious change. They don't want to hear about a guy who's a wrecking ball coming into the city and smashing the status quo. They want calm before the end, not calm before the storm, calm, that's a very human nature thing to understand. You know, and even though they tend to be more, you know, conservative and vote Republican times change. Right. I think we were talking about, or would via Twitter, the European elections that are going on, particularly in France, Marine Le Pan is getting her best support from the under 30 focus as Matt Goodwin said, they're all de aligned from the establishment politics where the older votes, even in, in Europe, the older voters, they're more aligned. They're more like, look, I've always voted this way. You know, there's, there's a tradition that they still kind of cling on to where's younger people like, forget it, let's, you know, let's, let's try something brand new here. And so I think we're seeing something comparable with, with Trump as well. Sure. For sure. Give us the map here. And then I'd love if we can to just get some questions from our audience. But we're seeing Trump, I mean, as I understand it, please correct me, we're seeing Trump basically sweeping the swing states at this point. I mean, he's at the, at the, at the lowest is he's going to be tied or up one or two. But I mean, the latest poll that just came out with Pennsylvania, it was pretty impressive up for, um, we've got him, Mark had him up three, which is a very liberal poll. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Yeah. Yeah. Um, we got him up. I mean, that Des Moines Register poll in Iowa, my heavens, that 18, I mean, that's like Steve month and a half before this poll comes out, we have Trump up by 15 points in Iowa and get completely my, you had a 50, we have him up 14, 14 in Ohio, 15 in Iowa, month and a half later, the great and soldier puts out Trump as 18 and everyone's hair is on fire and they realize it's true. If you like that kid and go, wait, wait, that was me. I did that, don't look at the, the, thankless, this job can be my friend. And it's like nobody is ever big enough to be like, especially so-called men, you know, they think they're men. No one's ever big enough to say, you know what, I was wrong. I was wrong, Rich. Sorry about that. Hey guys. That's right. That's right. People's pundit. It's a thankless job. It's true. I almost get, I'm speaking to the choir here, approaching elections, I almost start having panic attacks. I'm like, oh my gosh, I'm going to have to deal with. If it doesn't go well, I'm going to have to be talking people off the ledge versus all these people telling me I need to go and jump off a ledge, you know? Yeah. It's not a great part of the job, bro. The emotions are so high, but oh, well, hopefully, hopefully we're not going to have that problem November. Well, the good news I think is we all know 2020 happened and everybody recognizes that and they recognize that that was not pollsters fault. That was, well, you know, it's fault beyond our stars and, but it looks like I don't want to be, you know, complacent here, but it looks like we're getting to into the possible too big to rig arena. What other? I mean, if you got him up 18 in Iowa, sweeping the, I forget the Sunbelt at this point, sweeping, sweeping the swing states. What else do we talk? What else is in play? You and I were talking about, I mean, dude, New England, Maine, I mean, New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota. You were talking about New Mexico yesterday, freaking New Mexico. The numbers of the numbers, folks, I mean, when you're looking at the national numbers and of course, you have state level data as well. Now, take the state of New Mexico, for instance, in our new poll, Trump is probably going to be ballpark around 45 47% of Hispanic vote without leaners. All right. I actually think maybe Trump's going to inch ahead here soon if this keeps up, which is unbelievable. Does that matter? Well, first of all, we got him at like 37% of Hispanic vote in 2020 and he got about that. So we were right on in New Mexico, the white vote split in 2020. It did not in 16. Trump won the white vote, but he got clobbered with Hispanics in 2020. He did better with Hispanics, but the white vote split between him and Biden. So because they're 37 up, which 40% of the electorate, there's a small Asian population and Native American population, but for large, for the most part, Biden's entire 10-point margin in the state of New Mexico was due to his margin among Hispanics, which was weaker than it was nationally. Okay. So people need to understand this. Trump did better and does better with Hispanics in New Mexico than he does in the nation over all twice, not once, twice. So if past his prologue that he's doing this well nationally with Hispanics, let's say he just ties Biden among Hispanics, Dr. Turley should say he ties, all right. And then the margin with whites goes back a few points his way, which very much appears to be the case and he wins whites. That is going to be a nailbiter and Biden is going to have to rely on what is 3 to 5% of the electorate, giving him such an overwhelming margin. It breaks a coin tossed high. That's how close New Mexico would be if our numbers, and I'm sure they are, are correct. The state of Maine, I've been telling people and we, I was talking to you about this before, the, you know, we went on live on air. Hillary Clinton got, or you know what, kicked in. When she was 32 to 35% of the white working class vote, Joe Biden inched a little higher in the high thirties in 2020, and that's how we all done tiny little amounts in states like Wisconsin. If you, you know, put aside rhymes and the shenanigans, right? So if he can no longer do that, these states become, first of all, the traditional battleground states become unwinnable for him. And I'm not the only one who is trying to explain this to people. Little leftists and one of the authors of the emerging democratic majority on his Twitter, I mean, on his, uh, sub stack weekly is writing columns about how this is a major problem. And now it's not just the white working class, non white working class. He's on the page too. But that's when you look at states like Maine. And just to give you, and I, let me just make sure I get this number correct right now. Um, 25% ballpark is where Joe Biden is out with the white working class vote right now in this ball. 25, 26% and granted, we're asking different scenarios. Just Trump versus Biden. Who would you pick? Trump Biden and generically someone else, Trump Biden, JFK, Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, if that was the case in their state, their particular state. He is in budget. Wow. He's not cracking 26%. This is a massive problem. It is not even mathematically possible for him to win the electoral college. At that point, he would need to win white college educated voters by more than he did in 2020. And his problem is that his margin with them has slipped. Trump has regained some ground with them. And then you got to look around the map and say, where else would this affect? Where else would these margins? And it's not just race folks. It's ethnicity. All right. So you have a lot of French. Yeah. And Catholics, cultural, right, in Maine, in states like Maine, in states where you're from in Connecticut, tons of different ethnic Catholics. When you're looking at like that plus 18 and released in Iowa, that's a disaster for the state of Wisconsin, for Joe Biden, because you're talking about a blend of Norwegians and Norwegian Catholics. And there are other Scandinavian voting groups that some of them have been more Trumpy and have been trending Trumpy for a while. But you have like Finns and Swedes that are not or tend to be much more liberal. And you know, that's why you have the three counties in Northwestern, North Western Wisconsin that remain liberal and remain Democratic at the presidential level. Trump gets in the mid 40s there, low 40s there. When you're talking about numbers like this, you're talking about winning over a lot of those Scandinavians that you just didn't win before, they give you a look in 16, they shot away from you in 20. They're on the table now. I mean, this is a total disaster for Joe Biden. So when I see a poll in New Jersey, for instance, because of the non-weight vote shift on top of that, you have to believe New Jersey is closer. It is. It has to be. Folks, a Trump plus six nationally is an eff wipe out of epic proportions. I hate to say this, but Nate the Slimer, the idiot failed statistician from 538. You know, oh, sorry, he was fired from there, was right about his analysis. You know, maybe Biden doesn't need four and a half points anymore. But Manny needs every bit of four to win the Electoral College. If Trump takes it by two or more, the popular vote, it's a wipe out, a total wipe out. You're talking about states, nobody would have ever expected to go. And by the way, that includes Virginia again. I mean, we're throwing all these states back on the map. You don't just win Iowa by 18, folks. And then, you know, Connecticut remains D plus 20. That's not how this works. And all of them will go together. And some of them will survive for Democrats because of their partisan voting index, how strong that partisan voting index is, how strict it is, others will not, especially those that are more, you know, like their voting patterns are being exacerbated by realignments. And they, man, you're just talk about being exacerbated. This, that shift will dramatically increase the impact of that already existing realignment. And you'll just see dominoes falling on board. Wow, man. Gang, if you want analysis like this every day, click on that link below or go to peoplespondit.locals.com. Become a member of Rich's locals community. I am. And you're going to get, you're going to get analysis like this virtually every single day. So make sure to click on that link below. Rich, you want to take some, some questions here from the audience. Yeah. All right, gang, remember, if you want to ask Richard questions, just click on the link below. We're going to fight dot totally talks.com sign up for any levels support you like. And you have instant access to our private virtual platform. You can ask Rich your questions. All right. What do we got here, Micah, Josh? All right. This is from Rich Smith, Dr. Steven, Mr. Barris. There are some polls that are deliberately inaccurate to prop up Democratic candidate to make it appear that they're doing better than reality. Even how bad Biden is doing. Should we expect these fake polls to be reported by the fake news? And if so, when will they start? Yeah. So I think you might start to see some pretty soon. I saw a leak from the Biden campaign yesterday to CBS news saying that essentially the polling in their corner has been relatively unchanged. Biden lost a point. They're basically still tied. And that is a wink wink to the pollsters that you're talking about to set. You know, that's a wink wink to them. That's like a green light. Like it's all right to play a little game here. But I think there are the consensus is what matters. And they're, for the most part, going to get even worse, I think, personally. You're going to see a rash of garbage right before Labor Day to try to set the narrative because that Labor Day landmark or that Labor Day pivot point is still so important in the minds of these polls. They don't understand. We live in the age of information now, and it doesn't work the way it did in 1988. We're not going to see this do caucus the Bush 20 point swing. It's not going to happen. It doesn't work that way in this country anymore. And the times are very different, but they don't know that. So I would expect them around there. Those polls certainly do exist without a doubt. The reason why I think you may get some a little bit early is because the Biden family is going to try to pull out all the straight polls, all the strings that they can to try to salvage these calls for him to be replaced, and which is a very complicated thing. It's only possible, in my opinion, under one circumstance or one scenario, but it's still nevertheless very difficult. And that's why I would say get ready for those deluge, like before Labor Day, but probably expect some, you know, maybe, maybe soon that everyone's going to want to save face. And they're going to want to show you what the state of the race is now after that debate. But as these calls, you know, ratchet up, you're going to get friends of Biden, people who support Biden going to their polling firms and saying, Hey, let's get something going here. We need to, we need to try to say, we need to try to push polls, push polls, yeah, we need to make it. Yeah, we need to throw the guy a line, you know, throw him a life jacket, he's drowning out there. And that's why I think we're going to see some of that ironically, he still is the strong candidate. It's insane. Among all of them, they don't have a bench, man. They've got no bench. They don't have a bench. Don't blowable. None. America, the free Mr. Barris, let's say Joe Biden stays in the race. Should we expect any Democrat bumping holes as we get closer to the election? Will there be any coming home for these voters? I'm with Harry Anton on this. For the better part of a year, I've been looking at the black vote chair for Donald Trump. I've been looking at the black, the Hispanic vote chair for Donald Trump. That's where the coming home needs to come from. Also, there are some who are younger. I think that many of these people, the Biden campaigns in danger of them, forget about them, coming home. It's like they don't even feel like that's their home. They can't vote for him anymore. So they, they may not and they'll just abstain from voting altogether. That's a danger there. But I'm like, Harry, keep waiting for this stuff to happen. And it's not happening. And it's like, when is it going to happen? Is it going to happen when he's charged with 91 felony counts? Okay. Here we are. That time is coming gone. It didn't do it. Okay. Finally. It's going to happen when he's in, he's, he's convicted by a hacked judge and jury, you know, fine. Okay. Maybe that's the point. And then that, that time gets here. That time comes. We rerun the numbers. It doesn't happen. Okay. Maybe it'll happen after he puts on a good debate performance. Look at what happened. It's the debate. Question of people who are skeptical and are wanting, you know, don't, don't think that what people like Henten and I are saying, my question to you is when are, do you expect them to come home then? Because this is not again, this is not the same thing as Bush v. Kerry. It's not the same thing as the caucus first Bush. We know these men. They are both been president. They both have universal name ID. There's no getting to know the country reintroduce yourself to the country. Trump's retrospective approval rating has shot through the roof. A lot of that has been fueled by women and non white voters. I just don't see when this is going to change. When is this going to course correct for Joe Biden? That would be my, my counter question to them. I don't think it's going to at this point. So now I just, I think it's not, I think it's very, very unlikely. What was a heavy favorite at this point? I'm not saying that to get complacent. But I'm simply saying he is the favorite and it's not really a slight favorite. Right. Well, yeah, even Nate Silver is admitting that right now. This is not close. Right. What that was his headline. Even before the debate. So before the debate, that's what I'm saying. If you really looked in the numbers of our last poll, which was like a Trump plus two, if you looked in the numbers, every demographic that Joe Biden needs to make sure he carries the state of Pennsylvania, they're out the window. Forget about Michigan and keep seeing all these different polls. Maybe you'll keep Michigan. Maybe you'll keep Wisconsin folks. They vote together every time the last eight presidential elections. And I keep bringing up 88, but it's true. That is the last time Wisconsin did not vote with Pennsylvania and Michigan, even with tiny, tiny margins. They still have consecutively for eight elections and they bucked the trend in 88 that went to caucus Wisconsin and Bush got Michigan and Pennsylvania. Many people like believe that Michigan's probably the hardest for Trump this time around, but I've got to tell you, I don't know that that's the case. I don't know because this realignment is real. And that seems to be impacting demographics that are much more impactful to Michigan, the result of Michigan, you know, like Wisconsin is wider. It's less urban than a state like Michigan. So if Trump is doing much better in urban areas, you're not going to really see that with the white liberal. That's coming from non whites, it's coming from working class, urban and metro voters. Absolutely. I'm fabulous. Again, I think I just summarize your analysis where I talk about Trump's sweet spot where he has galvanized the rural white vote at the same time he has minimized the urban non-white vote for Biden. So he's galvanized the urban or the rural white vote for himself, but he's minimized those margins of the non-white urban vote for Biden. And that combination is just, it's over. It's unbeatable. It's unbeatable. There's like this idea out there among some Republicans who, you know, while you were saying before, like I've been talking about this non-white vote shift for the better part of the year, he's like, you know, influencer hacks who are like, you know, dismissing it. No, we see this every election. No, we don't see this every election. And the truth is Trump has been chipping away at the non-white vote for years. This just appears to be the cascading point. And you don't have to win it. You know what happens when Trump slices three to four points in Wayne County? Or he's not at 40% in Allegheny, he's at 44 in Pennsylvania, Allegheny, Pennsylvania. They can't win. They cannot win like that. Yeah. I just noticed so much of the polling analysis. And it's usually just by, by Neo fights, they don't even know what they're doing, but it's so myopic. He's not going to win Virginia. He's not going to win Virginia. And then I listen to you. He doesn't have to. That's not the point. If they're tied, he's going to run, he's going to run a route of Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Well, we know he's going to get Iowa, Wisconsin, I mean, that's if he's North Carolina will be eight, they're not, yeah, they're not reading the cross tabs, as it were of their own electoral map. Yeah. What do we got next here? For Sir Barris Terry, will Trump move to dismiss all remaining cases signing Clarence Thomas's theory, which actually is not even legally appointed? That's a really good question. I do actually, he's a nice guy, I've spoken, I do speak to Trump's lawyer quite a bit, although it's some things he can need. You know, we speak in like the more media capacity, like what can you ask him as a public question, right? And we're going to have him on the show again. He's a great guy. Will Sharp I'm talking about. By the way, if you're in Missouri is running for the attorney general's office. If you were in the state of Missouri, you could go with the rhino or you could go with the guy who successfully argued for Trump in front of the Supreme Court of the United States. Personally, for me, I'm going to go with the guy who's got the life achievement that is up there with, you know, he'll he'll he'll be remembered as one of the greats because of that decision. He really will be. I don't know the answer to that because I don't. I haven't spoke to him about that and had the chance to to discuss that, but I will say this. He's a very aggressive guy. The whole team is. I would not be surprised if they did. Now, by the way, then even you could argue that the New York case is even applicable here. Certainly, Georgia is without it yet, but part of the New York case is that they made this convoluted argument that, well, we waited so long to charge him because he really was concerned about, you know, being reelected. I mean, they did this. It was like way past the time where it was relevant or had to do with his official being like an official act as president because they are the ones who waited because they are the ones who made this like alternative theory of the case. They raised it up. Right. Now they opened the door to being subjected to this decision on, you know, last week, they did again. No, I know. They made every disgusting bed that they are being forced to lie in right now. And they thought they could pressure those justices and scare those justices into the decision they wanted. For you more so, since you are a native New York, I just lived in your shadow just about a half an hour away in that area. But dang, man, the mess they have made of that once unbelievable city, it's just, it's Madden. It actually it is. It's manning. You know, my daughter is in New York right now and it's, you know, I want her to enjoy it and, and, and to have this, this Manhattan experience, but it's, it's hard when you've got, you know, you know, vagrants, vagabombs as a word, just everywhere. It's just, I mean, in restaurants, when you're trying to eat, I mean, the smell and it's just. That was just going to stay. Yeah. It's just on. It's just so sad. I mean, it's just anyway. Well, all right. Well, we could go on and on with it. We're going to sound like old city deserves my day. The city deserves what it goes though. They do. They voted down. They're prosecuting the two men. They're prosecuting the two men and, and, and, you know, going up to the two men that, that literally saved that city from that. No, I know. I know. I know. Giuliani was astonishing. It was, it was a renaissance. It was in New York. What was it? Dave Dinkins before him. It just was a disaster. Yes. I remember as a little kid, not even being able to go to the ATM machine with my mother. I will never forget that. At nighttime, definitely not. On the daytime, my brother and I used to have to turn and watch her back. It was awful. It was, and I, we loved the city, we loved it. I loved it all my heart. Then when that renaissance did happen, it was like, wow, this is the, this is the New York. My grandfather told me, great city for all, this is such a great city. No, no where else folks matches New York when New York is good, man. They ruined it. Yeah. Yeah. It's all this. It's heartbreaking to me. I love my city. No, I know. I know. Not my city anymore. I know. I'll be, I'll be up there for the weekend and a week from this weekend and I even just then, you know, I want to enjoy it. But gosh, you know, when we were there last time last, yeah, around this time last year, I was shy. I hadn't been there rich and it's probably been about seven, eight, you know, about ten years. I haven't been in New York. And dude, I was like, I can't even recognize it. This place. It's just so sad. All right. What else we get? We're all getting all this is sad and we're going to start breaking out our rum and start singing song. Yeah. I know, right? Yeah. Do you feel, do you both feel that this latest development of the legacy media's revealed gaslighting regarding Biden's dementia will put the final nails in their respective coffin. Whew, you know, I could say I certainly hope so. I don't know, though, because this is one thing that is different about this time. The Republicans and even independents, most independents, nobody really believes corporate media is impartial anymore. There is a chunk, however, of the Democratic Party that is right now, as we speak, wrestling with the reality that they are very clearly easily duped by the media because the media favors their party. And yes, you're just going to have partisans, but you will have those free thinkers out there still who say, man, they lied to me. I wonder what else they lied to me. Yeah. And it's like, once you get that red pill, man, it's like, you can't unsee it. And I want to just, I'll say you, I think what the best course of action here is, is not to try to bring back the credibility of an industry that has shot it to hell. We should just admittedly be, or we should drop the pretenses, we should drop the pretentious nonsense and just admit this is party media, like it was in the beginning of the Republic. We all have a view. We're trying to push that view. And we are trying to influence you. We want you to agree with our point of view now decide instead. We have a, you know, a lie, it's a lie that we're operating under a lie. They're not impartial. They're not credible. They're not professionals. They're not even mature. Right. They're not even mature. There's some of the most immature simpletons in the world. I don't know if you saw the Tucker with, clip with Tucker answering questions the other day. With that Australian reporter, he eviscerated at her. He was like, I'd like to think you're not an idiot, but I think you just answered the question for me. Like, these are who they are. They're not smart. And I think that, you know, that the, I'm not sure how much more damage can be done in the media's credibility, but here in the case of this debate, what really is different and just to be, you know, rapid come full circle to punch that point home is that it has to do with them being blind to and they have no choice but the kind of grips with it. No, brilliant answer. I think that's absolutely right on. Yeah, I what Rich said is so key, the original media late 18th century into 19th century was for lack of a term, a very overtly partisan media here where we are and we're on the border of Maryland and Cecil County. There were two newspapers, Cecil County, Wig and the Cecil County Democrat. They did not have this fact value dichotomy where we're just deal with facts CNN, right? Yeah. They, they recognize that facts fit in with your values. And so they argue, they often use, Rich, it's kind of cool. They often use the first person plural. We believe or we hold, right? So they really wanted you to come into understanding their, the world through their worldview. They didn't, they made no phones about it. They made it clear we're coming at it from this political angle, just like Rush Limbaugh used to do, right? But, but when you come at the world from this angle, it suddenly makes sense. It's like what C.S. Lewis said about the sun. I don't, I'm not saying our politics is like this. He said, I believe in God the same way I believe in the sun. Not because I can see it, but by it, I see everything else, you know. So you open up this worldview and all of a sudden the world starts to make sense. And, and then in the early, early 20th century, they bought into this notion of scientific rationalism that they could be this objective disinterested observer of events. So the reporter is never part of the story. They always talk in the third, the third person passive and, and they, and Rich nailed it. They continue to try to put on that veneer of objectivity while at the same time pushing radical partisan politics. It's just ridiculous. I mean, again, I could say let's just drop the pretenses. Right. Is that just free to be MSNBC, be live it, love it, you know, be left wing. It's okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don't insult our intelligence anymore. Don't insult our intelligence pretending like you're, you know, so you're something you're not. And that goes by the way, for also several and right wing media, Fox News is super offender of this. Come on. Um, you know, fair and balanced. Yeah. Right. It would have been more fair to say you're balancing on the left. That's it. No, just be real or fair and balanced. We're going to get the establishment. The word it needs. You know, you're, you're, we'll have Lindsey Graham on every night. Oh, all right. That's fair and balanced. I forget. Yeah. I wish we would go back to that. Yeah. Really do. I think it would be more productive society. I think we are. I think that's where it is going. That's where that's the, that's the just the nature of curated content. I just think that's where people are going. We got a couple of more for rich. What do we got? Connie, um, if they sentence Trump to jail house arrest, do you think that will destroy his polling with the normies since it did go down some after the verdict? Um, I don't, I would disagree with that. I don't believe it did, uh, go down after the verdict. Uh, the one poll that started that entire narrative was a sampling era. I mean, that was statistical noise, um, you know, that for a, for movement, for instance, the Anselm college, St. Anselm college poll in New Hampshire before the verdict, before the debate, uh, Biden was leading by 10. Now in this new poll in New Hampshire is a blue state now. Come on. Let's get real. Yeah. It is a, it is a competitive state, but it's a blue state now trumps up by two. Yeah. That is movement. Yeah. So to go from being tied to Biden plus one, Biden plus two, uh, I just don't see it. If you look at the aggregate on real clear politics, it actually got slightly better for Trump and the aggregate after the verdict. And I don't think if they slap him, if they slap like an ankle bracelet on him, or they sent him to jail, but they defer it even, or they just outright sent him to Rikers Island, which I'm not sure how they would logistically do, but let's just say that, you know, they did. I am really now starting to like almost 100% wholeheartedly subscribe to the fact that that would backfire on them spectacularly. And he would become a Nelson Mandela like figure and he would win from a jail. So I really do think that absolutely. Yeah. Or even Lula and Brazil. I mean, it's just, it's the track record of, uh, yeah, locking, locking up a candidate doesn't tend to work in favor of those locking them up. Yeah. Thanks. And so we haven't had that situation in our own country, but we have certainly had other examples, two of which are huge examples that you just mentioned. Yeah. Now it appears all signs indicate here that we would, that is the temperament. That's the environment that where, uh, the voters are, are creating right now. You take them out. We'll vote for them in jail. We swear to God, I will, you know, like that is the way it's coming across. And I, you know, I think I subscribed to it at this point. Yeah. Good. Because what would hurt him? Like what has happened to him over the last year is incredible. And yet it has not, it has not stopped it seems to have even just made him stronger. Just like what you're saying, the blowback, the, the, uh, non-white working class feeling that they can relate to him more. I mean, it just, it's, it's solidified, is support the MAGA, uh, crowd is more energized than ever. Like you say low propensity voters, more energized than ever to come out and vote. I mean, it's, it's not working. It's not working the way they thought. That's for sure. And you just said that by the way, that's a very important a year ago plus Trump was doing very well, but he was doing well because of the low to no propensity voter. I did not vote in 2020. I've never voted before in my life. This is the first time in my lifetime that those are benefiting a Republican presidential candidate. He does a democratic candidate. Um, so that's in and of itself significant, but that is now evened on because when you tighten the likely voter screen a year or so ago, more that would benefit Biden. That advantage for Biden is gone because this is hyped up, right? So many of those people and you watch some pollsters will screen them out. Steve, watch. They will say, well, they don't have a vote history. I'm getting rid of them. They'll do it. And I guarantee you those people are going to vote. Dang. Absolutely. Again, we sell something just like in France, uh, last, uh, Saturday, they're one of their biggest turnouts ever, one of their biggest turn. You and again, you nailed it for the first time. I think you said it, you're actually seeing where the, the greater the turnout, the better for the Republican. Does that? Yes. Right? Yeah. That's the same thing with France. The bigger the turnout, because again, these low propensity, no propensity voters. The Brexit, Britain, the big, the more they come out, the more their vote and the pen, the more their vote national rally, they've had it with the politics of the establishment. They've just had it. Yeah. And I think that this is a reckoning. I sent that to you the other day, that article from Bloomberg did. Um, I think this is a reckoning in the farm, you know, the, uh, the political class, whether it's foreign or domestic refuses to come to, right, you know, to, to accept the reality that their governing system is, is leaving people behind and their governing system is not representative anymore of the body politic and they just will not evolve. So they will be forced to one way or the other. You know, I mean, that's, it's that, um, yeah, that they will either adjust or they will, they will demise in a form of being just, yes, there we go, the way of the dodo, it doesn't work this way forever. And they, they should know that this, you know, in history knows that you cannot continue and maintain a status quo that is illegitimate or ineffective. The Tories are not to find that out on Thursday, ironically, on independence, all these. Perfect example of, uh, a kin, or I would say a canary in the coal mine for conservatives. This is what will happen to you. If you run out there promising the world, um, and not delivering when Trump gets back into office, because you have one lay mass excuse after another. And by the way, voters aren't stupid. That's right. Let me just look at the last at last glance. If you compare just Trump versus Biden, okay. He is running about five points ahead of the Republican general, a generic Republican candidate for Congress. And that's been remarkably consistent. He is holding them. Can I, the question we have right there is perfect. This is a Michael, how much impact will the high Trump numbers work down ballot races? I think Republicans have some work to do before they can maximize that impact. For instance, on abortion, um, which you brought up before, which Dr. Steve folks brought up before Trump's answer was flawless on abortion. They're going to get baited on all these stupid stuff. There's a lot of high, or I would say there are a lot of low propensity, but high turnout people when it comes to Trump being on the ticket that you could benefit from, but they don't hold the exact same positions. Many of them that the Republican party does, especially not the establishment Republican party whom they no longer trust either. So I think they have work to do. I think he could have huge and positive impact on down ballot races. I'm not. I don't see a single state where Donald Trump, you could point to Donald Trump and say he's going to hurt so and so in that Senate race. He's going to hurt this, but how many times is the first time we've ever not been able to do that in 2016? Very easy. He's going to hurt Mark Kirk. He's going to hurt Kelly A on. He's going to hurt Pat Toomey. He's going to hurt blah, blah, blah, down the line at the end of the day that he helped those people. Right. But in 2020, they made the same case. Same thing. Then the Georgia run off. This is all Trump's fault, right? Yep. On and on, not a single state can they point to this time and say, because Donald Trump is the nominee, it's going to drag the down ballot races down. It's exact opposite and he is out polling them and it's not just the margin. It's the level of support that he has. So Trump's level is higher. It's not just that he's leading Biden by a greater margin than Republicans are leading Democrats. His level of support is five points, at least higher. It's significant. And it's been like this. Yeah. For months. Yeah. All right, a couple of more and then we will let Rich go David. How much of the electorate knows what a Neocon is, how much know about the divide between establishment, populist Republicans, how small a percentage of voters are political keeks. Yeah. Oh, I think there are three different questions there. Yeah. I'll see the couple there. The whole con thing I would say is probably in the neighborhood of like 20 to 33 percent who could accurately, you know, in some way articulate what a Neocon is or accurately describe what a Neocon is. And for those who don't know, a Neocon is a fake Republican who hit in the Republican party because of the era of Reagan. They were comedies, comedies back in the day, Bill crystals and, you know, obviously an infamous Neocon. His daddy started. He was one of the founding fathers of that movement and his name was Irving Crystal. He was a freaking left wing communist and he had more aggressive views on foreign policy than other leftists did. So being abandoned by their party, they sought refuge in an administration that was a more aggressive foreign policy administration, AKA Ronald Reagan. And he had the ABCs right yet is, you know, anything but communism as a slogan. So we would let these people in because they would, you know, basically pledge to put their domestic ideas aside in favor of helping him with the foreign policy and what what Neocon's want is to use the primacy of US power to shape the world in our image. They want to use military might to make the world bring them to heal and make them more like us. I don't it's a garbage theory. It's a garbage international relations theory. It's not viable. It's not the real world. But unfortunately, we have to contend with them. I think probably and because of Republicans, you're looking in the neighborhood of a quarter with third who could really identify truly what that is because Republicans are more informed about stuff like this. And that's just the truth. And then how small of wait a minute, what how much divide between the establishment and about how much know about this divide between the people and the political class. That's a really good question. We're trying to figure that out right now. I think it's a huge amount just from what there's some of the answers are that we get for unrelated questions or they're related, but they're just not directly aimed at asking people that we just introduced the populism index is the second month. We're running it. These stance people do whether or not they identify as a populist or not. And then we're looking at who those people are. And by the way, the I don't knows are very, very interesting because of course they don't not know. Right. Right. They just they're just saying that for obvious reasons and how small of a percentage of voters or political geeks, man, that's a that's I'd have to get back to you on that, but I probably could find you, you know, something that that comes close to answering that question. I want to say it's probably pretty small. That's like two percent. Yeah. That are real true. Beautiful geeks. Yeah. Yeah. Who who eat sleep, drink this stuff. I mean, yeah, who who tune in at nine o'clock live streams and so forth. Yeah. I think I think it's very, very small, but we love all of you. We love all of you. One more for rich. Sure. Anita, recent reports indicate that there's not enough time to replace Joe Biden. Is that true? Yeah. What is what is your view, Rich? You're talking a little bit about this on your live stream. It is incredibly difficult to replace Joe Biden at this time when Lyndon Johnson was replaced. He backed away. He he gave up. It was March 31st. Things have changed state laws. Have you even changed since then? I think, look, I think Steve, they would bend every law in the RNC to get what they want. You know, the problem of those state laws, and there is probably, and I don't want to give them any ideas, although it's a worse idea even, the only way to get around the problems that exist with replacing Joe Biden is to use Kamala Harris. Yeah. And that would cause friction within the party. If you leapfrog her, it'll cause friction within the party. There is just no good solution here. You took away forcibly, basically. You took away your president's ability to run for reelection, and you replaced him with, you know, an even worse choice. Yeah. I mean, I really do believe that. We've pulled Whitmer. We've pulled Newsome. Newsome and Harris are from two different dueling factions in the inside of California. That's the craziest thing. Yeah. Put it on about this. It's not just one issue. There are many issues, and, and this is why Kamala partially helps with this problem. You just told tens and tens and tens, hundreds, millions of people that their vote in the primary. Yep. Doesn't matter. You know, doesn't matter. And the optics of that alone, not adding everything else we just brought to bear, are way, way worse than anything we've seen in a modern presidential election. And then there's that tiny little windows for folks for states to get you on the ballot, because they are the Democratic Party. They'll probably be able to bend some elbows, but I'll tell you right now, if someone replaces Joe Biden, or really they tried to do that, that person would not appear on at least Ohio. Right. That's not happening. Right. Changing the new law. New York would be difficult. New York is extremely difficult to deal with this small little window of time and to drop Biden after he, I mean, a lot of these states, folks, to be on the ballot, you're actually qualifying by getting a certain amount of the votes in different elections, prior elections, and or primaries. And you just can't say you did that when somebody else stopped the ticket. Right. Stop. Couldn't agree more. Rich, you're the best man. And that's why, gang, you've got to join people's pundit.locals.com click on that link below. It's the best political and data analysis out there, bar none. Rich is my go to guy for the latest polling landscape and oh, you got it, man, you deserve it. You get the exact same info I get every day by just going to peoplespundit.locals.com. It's again, it's just, it's a resource like no other rich. We are on the front lines to some extraordinary times and I honestly cannot think of anyone. I'd rather have on those front lines than you, my friend. They're the best. I appreciate that. Thanks for having me on as always. Anytime you need me to come back. I'm here for you. Oh, we'd love that and have a blessed 4th of July with your wonderful family. We're chatting a little bit before, before the live stream and your pool. I hope you have a going to pick up going to pick up my fireworks haul tomorrow. It's going to be a good time. We're going to try to take it easy, but just have a blast and celebrate. I mean, it could have been a lot worse folks. The court two weeks in a row handed down just country saving opinions. There's a lot to celebrate this year. Do so. Just do it smart and do it safe, you know? Amen. We'll see you on the other side of it. Love you rich. Thanks so much, man. God bless. Thank everybody for being with us. We'll see you. Thanks so much for listening to this episode of the Turley Talks Podcast. Don't forget to subscribe, leave us a five star review and share this episode with your friends. Help us defeat the fake news media and rank us the number one news and commentary podcast all over the world. Come back again tomorrow for another episode celebrating the rise of a new conservative age. [music]
