The Duran Podcast
Russian promise, Pentagon worries
All right, Alexander, let's talk about the Russian warning to the U.S. ambassador in Russia, where Russia said that they will retaliate to the attacks on the Crimea beach. And this was a warning issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry. After this warning, we actually had a telephone call between Austin and Belusov as well, though the readout doesn't tell us too much, but this was a call initiated by the United States, by the Pentagon. And according to the readout, the Pentagon, Austin told the Russian Defense Minister that the U.S. and Russia, they need to keep the lines of communication open. So an interesting development after the warning from Russia to the U.S. ambassador in Moscow. What are your thoughts on what is going on here? You're the first person that I know of who's connected those two events, even though they are obviously connected to each other. Now, the first thing to understand is this, firstly, we had an attack, a missile attack on Crimea using Atakim's missiles. Now, it is generally acknowledged. I had a discussion. It's an open discussion. It was on his channel with Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, who's much more familiar with this kind of technology than I am. He says unequivocally that it is orbiting conceivable that the Ukrainians could operate such a sophisticated and complicated system by themselves, and they would certainly need targeting data from the United States to carry out an operation like this. Now, so to use a weapon system like that. So we have an Atakim's missile. Clearly, all the indications are operated with the assistance of the United States launched at a target in Crimea, possibly the Belbeck airbase. Who knows? But anyway, I'm passing over a beach in Crimea, exploding in mid-air, dropping canisters, you know, cluster munitions onto this beach. Large numbers of people were injured. Certain number of people were killed, including children apparently. The Russians, as we discussed in a previous program, absolutely furious about this. And they are openly blaming the United States. They're saying the Americans were responsible. And the Russians then summoned the US ambassador for a meeting in the foreign ministry. Now, this was a very, very strong meeting indeed, because the Russians not only said to the US ambassador that this attack can only have happened with the involvement of the United States. But they say that it was an intentional attack directed at civilians, which in effect accuses the United States of complicity in a war crime. And then they say to the US ambassador that retaliation will follow. In other words, that the Russians are going to retaliate against the United States itself. That's the intention. Now, this isn't something that the Russians saying might happen. It is a warning, but it's an warning to the Americans of a forthcoming event. There will be Russian retaliation against the United States in some form over the next indefinite period of time. We don't know when. And directly after that call, the United States obviously alarmed by this warning from the Russians gets its defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, to telephone Andre Bellos of the Russian defense minister. And we get a deeply uninformative readout from both countries, telling us that they both, they discussed the situation in Ukraine and confirmed their willingness to maintain contact, their need to maintain contact. On the face of it, it looks like it was a conciliatory call that the United States was trying to reassure the Russians, both of its non-involvement in this affair and of its anxiety to de-escalate the situation. That looks like what the Pentagon might have been doing. But of course, we don't know for that. For a fact, for all I know, the meeting might have been the discussion, might have been an awful lot more heated. And it's not impossible that Lloyd Austin in turn warned Bellos of the Russians do retaliate against the United States as the Russians now say they will than the Americans will respond further themselves. So we don't know exactly what took place over the course of this call. But clearly, the fact that this call took place at all shows that the Americans are taking this warning extremely seriously and that it's made them nervous and that they are in fact responding to this warning from the Russians by wheeling out Lloyd Austin either to make threats or perhaps more plausibly given the tone of the readouts to try to de-escalate the situation and perhaps to reshoot the Russians that nothing like this will happen again. You said in your video update that the missile may have been targeting this airbase but it also may have been directed at the main Orthodox Cathedral. Do you have any update on that information? It does go coincide with the Orthodox holiday that was taking place at the time of the attack arms and you did also have the terrorist attack in Dagestan which was also targeting Orthodox churches. Now that report was appearing in the Russian media but can I just say something else? What we do now learn is that if this attack of a missile really was launched towards Bellback the airbase then the direction it took is a strange one. I mean this is a ballistic missile. Apparently it is not particularly maneuverable. I mean it's not like the Iskander M which can engage in all kinds of complicated maneuvers as it approaches a target which makes it all but impossible to shoot down. It's a sort of straight line missile and if you look at Russian rather Ukrainian positions launch sites you would not expect an attack of missile to be heading over this beach. Now it could be that someone in Moscow has or not just in Moscow but the Russians have plotted the course of this missile and have felt that it was clearly moving towards Sevastopol as opposed to Bellback which is some you know in a different direction and that this explains why this missile was where it was rather than as I said in a completely different location. But these were reports that were appearing in Russia. I can't confirm them. What I will say is this they quietly faded away. It could be that a decision was made from someone in Moscow that the situation has become dangerous enough already without stories like that circulating. If it was an attack, an aimed attack at the Cathedral, well to be frank that would be a monstrous thing. This is an enormously important orthodox holiday. It's the sequel to Easter. In the West it's known as the Feast of Pentecost, just saying to those who don't know what this holiday is. It's not particularly celebrated in the Western world except in Germany by the way I understand but it is taken very seriously indeed in Greece and in the orthodox world. Right. Okay so the phone call between Austin and Belusif, the fact that we don't have an extensive readout, does that signal to you that this was a warning or some sort of de-escalation? I mean usually when you don't have an extensive readout what is that signal? I think it signals that the Americans were being as conciliatory as they possibly could and wanted to de-escalate. If it was a warning the United States would boast about it in other words. Would boast about it exactly. If they want to de-escalate, they don't want to broadcast the fact of the world and the usual collection of hardliners, Lindsey Graham, Tim Cotton and all that bunch. So that it seems to me is a much more plausible explanation of what happened but of course you know I don't know and the other thing is Lloyd Austin obviously would have acted after discussions with the White House, with Jake Sullivan and with the President presumably as if presumably because we don't know how far involved the President is in these discussions anymore but presumably there were top level discussions in Washington and noticed that the decision to have this call took place very fast but of course the United States government as we know is a deeply factionalized entity and there will be all sorts of people who take completely different views. If this was a conciliatory call we can be sure that there are some people who would have been furious about it and who would have responded very aggressively and would have said well look I must never apologize for anything we do to the Russians we should instead take the strongest possible line against them and if they make threats like this, warnings like this to the United States the only proper thing for us to do is to warn them even more strongly in response. So you know this might not if it was an attempted de-escalate it might not be the end of the matter not by any means even if that attempted de-escalate was sincere which perhaps it wasn't. Right yeah well Biden right now is incognito preparing or being prepared for the debate depending on how you want to look at it but what do you think Jake Sullivan who I consider to be the foreign policy president of the United States what do you think he's so concerned about what this warning from Russia what's concerning him? Well I think that the Russians... What's freaking about? I think that the Russians are keeping the Americans guessing about what they're going to do and I think that must be in itself alarming and they must be worrying what the Russians are planning but if I have to say whatever I think Jake Sullivan is most worried it's about some major flare up in the Middle East. The Middle East is barely under control of Israel under control at all. There's fighting going on in all kinds of places Gaza is still a war despite the American attempts to. Well the American back ceasefire resolution that passed the Security Council the Israelis are talking about an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon the US is saying they will back Israel in this the Americans must be extremely worried that if the Russians start weighing in and start providing hypersonic technology to people like Hezbollah and by the way to the Houthis as well people like that then of course the situation could get even more out of control and American lives would certainly be on the line because the United States has all sorts of bases strung out across the Middle East and they could easily find themselves attacked and if they're attacked by militias who are obtaining intelligence targeting data from the Russians who are using more advanced Russian weapons well the whole situation becomes very very concerning for Jake Sullivan especially given the mood in the United States which is very divided over the situation in the Middle East there's still a lot of Americans back Israel to the hilt but there is now increasing opposition to US policy supporting Israel in the United States itself and the very last thing I would have thought is the Jake Sullivan would want is for that opposition in the United States which comes from people who are overwhelmingly likely to vote Democrat to be fanned even further by an even more intense flare up in the Middle East so I think that's probably what he's worried about actually right something else happened after the telephone conversations between the warning from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the US ambassador and then the telephone conversation between Volusif and Dostin you had Pescov saying that the Russian president is is still open to the negotiations and still open to a ceasefire given the statement that he made a couple of weeks ago the terms that he laid out a couple of weeks ago and then a couple of days later the Kremlin repeated that statement and you also had Macron talking about how how he's open to dialogue with Putin as well maybe not the given the terror attack on the Crimea bridge on the Crimea beach maybe not the the best time for the Kremlin to say that that they're open to to negotiations but it followed it followed very very closely to to the terror incident the statement followed followed that the statement came after that that incident very very quickly and it makes me wonder who it seems that Putin is very serious about negotiations in a ceasefire yeah I get it I'm gonna actually push back a bit I think on the contrary it makes complete sense given Russian policy and given the direction of events that you know the way in which the diplomatic pieces have been falling in Russia's favor that the Russians at the very same time as that they're telling the Americans look we aren't going to retaliate against you make under you'd be under no doubts about this that the Russians would simultaneously be issuing statements reassuring their own allies and the world that despite this escalation they are still interested they're still prepared to sit down and to negotiate because from a Russian point of view they know perfectly well that if they seem to close off the option to negotiations entirely that would be deeply concerning for all sorts of countries around the world Brazil which has staked a lot on getting negotiations going India whose prime minister Narendra Modi is about to visit Moscow China too which has its own peace plan all of these countries so I think that the Russians want to reassure everybody that in fact look we are absolutely furious about what happened we are definitely going to retaliate against the Americans but we are not so angry that we've you know lost taken leave of our senses we still are willing to find some kind of process whereby provided our core conditions are accepted we can find a way out the Americans don't want to negotiate the Russians always say that they want to negotiate they've been saying this ever since the very first day that the special military operation began they have never foreclosed the option on negotiations and given how well it's worked for them taking that stand they're not going to foreclose it now right right okay the Biden administration according to CNN they're also getting very close to green lighting contractors to to go to Ukraine US contractors the the explanation is that these contractors are going to to help repair and maintain equipment and they're going to be removed from far removed from the front lines from where the the actual fighting is taking place what do you make of of this decision from the Biden White House once again all of this follows the sequence of events we've been talking about so I mean I think all of this stuff is kind of connected in one way or another what do you make of this CNN report if it's well again if the United States has indeed spoken to the Russians and said that they understand Russian concerns and they're going to try and make sure that something like what happened in Crimea doesn't happen again that the United States doesn't want an escalation it doesn't want things to become involved well it will be again entirely in character for the Americans to announce some escalation elsewhere and of course the point to say about remember remember this is a very hard line very aggressive very belligerent administration they're not going to take it eat it's not going to be easy for them to make conciliatory sounds to the Russians so this is an announcement that they've made that they're going to allow black rock and all the others to operate in Ukraine of course the reality is they've been there all along there are no short there's no shortage of foreign mercenaries and people of that kind including by the way American mercenaries fighting in Ukraine there's lots of technicians people involved operating things in the in Ukraine and of course what this might in part be intended to do it might be intended to formalize in some way the situation with systems like the attackers we all know the Americans are involved in operating the attacking the Russians have just told the Americans that they know that the Americans are operating the attacking or helping to operate the attacking more likely than not these are people who have left the US military in order that they can go to Ukraine as contractors so you just now confirm the fact that they're there so that's probably what this is all about but it was the Russians will see it as another escalatory move which in a sense it is yeah i agree with you on that um just a correction uh i think you said black rock black water it's a black water i'm so sorry black water black rock i always could just confuse to completely close the organization not not so different you know so different to see a complete slip of the time i'm afraid yeah that's so different yeah um yeah i thought the same thing with that cnn article i think on the one hand it um it prepares the the u.s public for the fact that contractors will continue to appear in ukraine but it also covers the biden white house tracks in that if contractors are uh are discovered to to be in ukraine from the for the past two years well it kind of covers the biden white house's basis yeah they were there but you know we we gave the decision yeah yeah all the more service they're being if they're going to be killed and i mean it's and now a certainty after the warning that the Russians have given that the Russians will be hunting and notice that it's come at one at the same time as a further categorical or categorical seeming statement from the white house that the uh question of sending u.s troops to ukraine is completely ruled out yeah i don't know how much we can we can trust those statements no but it may all suggest it may all suggest that the uh that the administration is preparing americans for the probability that american personnel are going to be killed in ukraine over the next few weeks and months so when the body backs start coming back well you could say these are just contractors they were centers contractors we've formalized the fact they're not actual u.s military and don't worry we're not going to get drawn into a war with russia because we're not sending troops there yeah but isn't that how it always starts of course it's exactly how it starts that's exactly how that's how that's exactly how it began in vietnam but i mean as i've been saying since the summer of 2022 the the similarities are astonishing they're getting greater every day and again americans for whom vietnam would be a warning um really ought to start noticing this and commenting about the fact that their their government is doing exactly the same kind of things that the u.s government did way back in the 1960s which ended in the debacle which was vietnam yeah uh i found a question do you get the sense that that we're in a very strange place right now with regards to to project ukraine and the conflict ukraine and that we're definitely heading towards towards escalation and most likely a war between russia and and the united states russia and data i mean that's that appears to be the trajectory of things but on the on the opposite on the opposite end it seems like we could get some sort of an agreement out of the blue any day now it feels like it in a in a way that you know given the the dynamics of of the election and everything that's going on in the united states that that may be there are some forces in the u.s that that can somehow talk some sense of the by the administration to to get to some sort of uh a starting point for negotiations in other words finally make a counter offer to to put its offer i mean we're definitely leaning more towards the trajectory of conflict but but every now and then you do hear some talk about diplomacy taking place back channel communication taking place phone calls between austin and ballus have taken place and maybe there there could be some sort of of an off-ramp given the the problems that the biden campaign has and the anger in the united states uh in and around all of these these conflicts that are yeah that the u.s is uh is bogged down in but there there are there are a lot of straws in the wind which put point in a more conciliatory direction macron i mean i think one of the big shocks if i could say so were the european parliament elections when parties that suppose the war did well and can i just say we've now got polling data which has been coming out it's been very thin the amount of polling data that's been provided but about the reasons why people voted the way they did but it's it turns out that especially in germany people who voted for the if you like real opposition parties the if day and um saravagan ex group the the especially young people one of the reasons that they said they voted it was very high on their list of concerns was the war in ukraine so it's it's had it is having a crystallizing effect with the european public as well merch merch changed his position a bit and that's exactly that's the other thing that's a sign opened up yeah suddenly the cd u has begun to understand mouth freedom mr opposition leader in germany somebody who very much wants to be the next chancellor of germany um cd u's still not doing especially well by the way they're at 29 30 percent in the polls by historic standards that's a very low level for the cd u's to be defined itself in if if he were to win an election with that kind of level of support he would probably find himself obliged to enter to a very very unhappy coalition with perhaps the spd or the greens or who knows who so he he's now seeing how german opinion actually feels about the war the trends in german opinion and so he's now indicated a shift he's talking about negotiations about the need to seek compromises about some way out um he took a much more conciliatory line this is in an interview he gave um on sunday then he has up to this time when he has on the contrary been the arch hawk demanding you know the most extreme escalation that they could possibly be so clearly a shift from mouth and the cd u reflecting change in germany there's also been a shift in france macaron is now saying that there's no prospect of french troops been sent to fight in ukraine anytime soon he seems to be moderating his language also and he's also talking about a negotiated settlement and of course in britain there's now uh this that the election has been shaken up by forage's comments talking about western responsibility for provoking the wall and he's just received support from a former british ambassador to moscote him brenton who's come out and written a strong piece of telegraph basically saying the forage is right so you know you you could see that there is this current of opinion in europe and i suspect that the probably has always been this debate in the united states between the china hawks the russia hawks between those who want a more realistic foreign policy those who seek escalation they're all there the trouble is i can't see a serious negotiation being undertaken by this foreign policy team that the president that biden has appointed for himself you look at salifen if you look at blinken even more at blinken his feelings about russia are so visceral that i don't really see him coming up with any kind of proposal that the russians would ever be interested in working with and well we've been hearing about this trump peace plan which was actually put together by general calog who is one of his chief advisors now it's just basically another attempt to get the freeze going the russians have rejected it the Ukrainians have rejected it the russians rejected this whole plan very emphatically over the last couple of days i think before we see any real peace moves towards peace take shape we've still got to wait for events on the battlefronts to take us to the point where you know all of the sentiment for negotiations finally crystallizes and people understand in the west that there is an urgent need for negotiations and for concessions to the russians at a level which up to now they've not been prepared to make i think with some way off from that and to be honest i don't see this happening before the election right okay we will end the video there the duran.looks.com we are in rumble out to see but you tell the grant rocket fit in twitter x and go to the duran shop pick up some football merch use the code football24 the link is in the description box down below take care you