The Duran Podcast
Farage support grows. Tories, zero seats fast approaching
All right, Alexander, let's do another follow-up on the elections in the UK, which will be taking place on July 4th, Independence Day. And Sunak is looking like he's going to get absolutely humbled in these elections. Faraj continues to surge, and and Faraj reform UK, they've actually put out their their party platform, their party position as well. And I think I think a lot of people will will be happy with with the position, but but there are some controversial items in in his his party platform as well. Let's let's discuss where should we start? Well, I think I think we can discuss what we would discuss a couple of about week ago with Dr Nima Pavini, which he said that he wanted the conservatives to end up with no seats at all. We're actually coming quite close to that point. I mean, it's astonishing that we are now closer to that point of getting, you know, having Dr Pavini's wish come true than I would ever have imagined. We've just had a big opinion poll, 18,000 people polled for the daily telegraph, remember daily telegraph, deeply conservative newspaper, very connected to the conservative party. Anyway, they tell us that according to this opinion poll, the conservatives will fall from 365 MPs that which they currently have in the House of Commons to just 53, 53. And later we'll go down from we'll go up from 202 to 516, 516 out of about 600 and the the most of the cabinet will lose their seats, apparently about two thirds of them. And Sunak also looks like he might lose his seat, which would mean that he would be the first sitting Prime Minister in British history to go to an election and we voted out of the House of Commons. I mean, it is a complete meltdown. Now, for Raj, you mentioned for Raj, he's saying that the reality is even worse, that there is an even bigger collapse amongst the conservatives underway. I still have to say that it's I still find it difficult to imagine that we are going to get results like this, but this is a big opinion poll, 18,000 people were questioned across the country is very scientifically done. It's in accord with what the other opinion polls are showing. We are looking at the total disintegration, the collapse of the party that has dominated British history for the last 150 plus years, the party of Churchill and Thatcher and Australia and all sorts of other people like this. And it's all simply coming apart. And the interesting thing is that the British are voting for another party, the Labour Party, which is the clone of the one they're rejecting, because the Labour Party is no different. And his policies are essentially exactly the same, but they're essentially the same. The Labour leader, Kiyastama, is unpopular. He's not actually conducted much of an election campaign. I don't think he knows how to. All that's happening is that even as Labour's own share of the votes needs to be dipping, there's a good chance that they're going to poll less than Jeremy Corbyn did, for example, in 2017, because of the sheer scale of the Conservative collapse. We're going to end up with this colossal Labour majority. And coming back to Farage, yes, he did produce a manifesto, which was controversial in some ways. But you know, at least that shows that he thinks and has ideas. And it also shows that he's a real politician. And you see that in the election, because he's all over the place, he's now in every huge channel, he's the person who people want to speak to, because he's interesting. And he knows how to talk to people in ways that neither soon act nor starma do. Starma is the beneficiary of a Conservative collapse. It'll be very interesting to see once the collapse comes, whether the Conservative Party is ever coming back. And the way things are going, I'm starting to have doubts about this, in which case, since there has to be a party on the right sooner or later, another right-wing force will emerge. And presumably it will be based around Reform UK, though maybe we're looking a bit too far ahead, to be sure. Yeah, a big Olensky curse is going to hit soon, but why do, why do they vote for Stommer and Labour? Why not just bypass Stommer and Labour and go straight to reform UK or other parties? The thing, obviously, the British public must know, the British voter must know that there's not much difference between Labour and the Conservatives and that Stommer is no different than soon act. So why just vote past these two parties? Just be done with it. Vote past these two parties and go to other parties. Well, because, right, well, there's a number of things to say about this. First, it's important to understand that the British election, though it's a national election, is an election that happens in 600 individual constituencies. That is the nature of the first-past-the-post electoral system, the Britain, and by the way, the United States has. Now, that means that if you have an organisation on the ground in each one of these constituencies, then that puts you in a much stronger position than any new party, which does not. And Labour does. It has members in each constituency. It has structures. It has contacts with local business people, people who might print the leaflets, who might be able to rally support for the local candidate. It has an organisation which, for example, reform UK only has to a very limited, much more limited extent, at which the new party on the left, the Workers' Party, George Galloway, absolutely does not have. It only got itself up and running. A few months ago, as we know, when basically Galloway won the watch, don't buy election. So that's one enormous advantage that Labour has. It's got the machines, the electoral, the political machines in the various constituencies, which no other rival opposition party does. But the other factor that works for the Labour Party is that the Conservatives are collapsing. Labour is not collapsing because people are not angry with it in the way that they are angry with the Conservatives. So there is less reason at the moment for people not to vote Labour. And the result is that through sheer inertia, momentum, if you will, people are ending up still in their many millions voting for them. Now, it's a little bit a situation where you're sensing that a structure is being created, which is, you know, the Labour, a new Labour government with a 500 seat majority. A structure is being created, which is itself ripe for ultimate collapse. We come back to that comparison that was made a couple of weeks ago with the 1906 election, which the Liberals won with a similarly gigantic majority. And it was the Liberals very soon afterwards also collapsed. Within 20 years, they've basically gone. They were no longer a major force in British politics anymore. But for the moment, the stars, if you like, are aligned with them. And in this election, even though their vote might not be particularly impressive, simply because of the Conservative collapse, simply because they got a presence in all of these constituencies and an organization there. They will win, and they will win big. It's not a vote for them. It's the product of the collapse of the Conservatives. If I could just say something about the Conservatives, I think this was a long way coming, actually. In my opinion, the Conservatives never really regained their balance from the time, the day in 1990, when they ousted Margaret Thatcher. Ever since then, the Conservative Party has never looked really convincing, and has never really explained why people should vote for it. It came to power in 2010, it returned to power in 2010, because Labour had to deal with the financial crisis, the 2008 financial crisis. And so that created a swing to the Conservatives. The government that was formed by Cameron, I don't know if it was ever particularly popular, it was often spoken about as the public schoolboys government, because basically that is what they were, and they never came across as very serious people. The Conservatives, even in those very favourable conditions in 2010, failed to win a majority. They only just managed a majority in 2015. Then Brexit happened, and that might have been their opportunity to rebuild and rejuvenate themselves. And instead they threw it away. They went for to raise a May, and then of course Boris Johnson came in, and he did win a big majority, basically by promising to get Brexit done. But then as soon as he was elected with his majority, what does he go off and do? He embraces Zelensky, project Ukraine, that becomes his priority, and well, the rest is history, basically. I mean, he squandered the opportunity for the reconstruction of the Conservative Party that Brexit provided. And frankly, I also get the sense that the party as a whole was never really very enthusiastic about going down the route of using Brexit to rebuild itself. Anyway, many, many of the Conservative parliamentarians and political leaders, ministers and officials, of course, had a closed Brexit in the first place. So in a sense, it's a party that's been living on borrowed time for several decades now, also surviving, basically through the weight of inertia. Brexit came along and gave it its brief final chance, and they threw it away. Boris went insane. He met Zelensky, and he went insane. And Labour is going to reverse Brexit. It may not be called the UK during the European Union, it may be done in other different ways, but it's going to be a final reversal of Brexit. I have no doubt of it. In fact, my own personal view is that if they win, not this election, but the election afterwards, they will probably actually move towards rejoining the EU, always assuming it's still there to rejoin. But I have no doubt of it at all. They are completely hostile to Brexit, and Starmer has never really made my secret to the fact. But for the moment at least, as I said, people are so angry with the Conservatives, there's such a sense that the Conservative Party is basically an exhausted force that, as I said, is never really given a real sense of what it's about since Margaret Thatcher fell. Brexit gave it its chance, threw it away. People cannot see any reason why they should support it anymore. And at the same time, there was a very angry with it, because they feel that to the extent that it made a promise over Brexit, it betrayed it. Right, we will end it there. The Duran.logos.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, but you telegram RockFit and Twitter X. And go to the Duran shop, pick up some football, merch, football 24 as a code. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.