The Duran Podcast
Squeezed from all directions, Zelensky panic grows
All right, Alexander, let's do an update as to what is going on with Project Ukraine. And should we start from the front lines this time? Maybe talk about more missile strikes on energy infrastructure. What's happening in Ukraine? Well, I think we can't talk at the front lines, but I think it's a holistic picture now because it seems to me that everything now step by step is falling apart. If we're talking about the front lines, I saw a British commentator speak of what the Russians are doing is that they're applying an Anaconda strategy. They've sort of entwined themselves around the Ukrainian army and they're constricting it to death. And I think that probably describes it quite well. Ukrainian casualties per day now, according to the Russians, and I think this is probably fairly reliable, running at between 1800 and 2000 a day a day. I mean, that is completely unsustainable. Energy infrastructure being systematically demolished. The Ukrainian authorities now acknowledging straightforwardly that the whole winter, there will be blackouts. The economy in absolute free fall, there's lack of electric power. There's shortages of workers because everybody who can, they can, they're now mobilizing and sending them to the battle fronts. And we're being told basically it's the Western powers who are telling them to do that. There's a monetary crisis, a budget crisis developing on top of everything else. They're loan, they're, you know, the freeze on payments, repayments of their bonds to their external private creditors. Runs out in August. The creditors for the moment are refusing to grant a haircut or to extend that loan repayment holiday. Beyond that, that's creating further pressure. Probably Western governments will step in and will apply pressure on the bondholders as they have in the past. And we'll see the IMF come up with something. But anyway, Ukraine running up ever more debts. And on top of that, one gets a growing sense that Zelensky himself, his position in Kiev, now basically become very, very shaky. We spoke in a recent program how all the decisions appear to be made by Yamak and the Russians are stirring the pot there. And saying that the Americans have finally had enough with him. This is from Russia's intelligence agencies, Sergey Narskyi, the head of Russian foreign intelligence. He's come forward and he's saying that the Americans have had enough with Zelenskyi and that they're now looking to replace him with general solution. That this is now the person that they think is the person that will take over. So I mean, the whole thing is very, very bad. But let's just focus a little on what's going on on the battle fronts, because it's what's interesting people. The Russians capture a large area of Harkov region back in May. What they're now doing is that they've taken up positions there. They're goading the Ukrainians to attack them. You get an end stream of reports from the battle group that has established itself in northern Harkov, the Russian battle group, talking all the time about the Ukrainians launching attacks and basically mocking the Ukrainians when they don't launch attacks, which is what they've been doing. So the Ukrainians do launch attacks when it gets to the sense that Zelensky is existing on them. The attacks end up causing more and more casualties. There's reports that entire battalions have been destroyed over the course of these attacks against far more powerful, far more heavily equipped and now entrenched and consolidated Russian forces in Harkov region. And in the meantime, between these attacks, the Russians continue to tighten their grip on the important northern town of Volchansk, which I suspect is their major objective in this battle front. They want to capture Volchansk because it integrates with the battles further south in Kupiansk region and elsewhere. But to repeat a point, I've been making on many programs that we've made before. This is a side show. This theatre in Harkov is a side show. The Russians have only deployed around 50,000 troops in the area. We don't know how many troops the Ukrainians have deployed, but allegedly it's 10, 20% of their army. The big events are happening in Donbas. The Russians punched a hole through the Ukrainian lines back in February when they captured of Devka. They've been capturing village after village after village in this area. That hole is now becoming enormous. They've almost reached what is apparently Ukraine's most important supply road, which goes from Pakrosk, a town in the west of Donbas, all the way to Chassifyar, Konstantinovka, and apparently it interconnects also with the Klamatosk area. And I've now been reading reports. In the British media, you know, the British, very careful to give unstinting support for Ukraine. They're saying if Ukraine loses control of this road, there are alternative routes through which the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine can continue to be supplied. But the roads, the other roads are in poor condition. They don't replace this road. This is what the British are saying. So it's an operational crisis for the Ukrainians. If this road is lost, and in the meantime, you can see that the Russians have started to position their forces in a way that suggests that they have some plan to create some kind of a big cauldron. They're now attacking Ukrainian troops in places like a town called Torresk, a village called New York. This is in the central area of this potential called encirclement, pinning the Ukrainians down there. They're advancing, as I said, from the south gradually closing in, and also they seem to be preparing an advance through Chassifyar, which presumably will be the northern pincer of this cauldron, if it really is the plan. And bear in mind, about a week ago, two weeks ago, just before Putin spoke to the foreign ministry people, and laid out his peace proposals, Istanbul+, the day before he had a meeting with his top military officials. And you now see increasing amount of speculation that what that was, was a discussion of the major Russian offensive in Ukraine for the summer, which is now about to happen, so that the Russians have been working towards this point, and they finally almost reached it. And perhaps that big offensive, you know, maybe this big encirclement operation is going to happen. Over the next couple of days. Now, one Russian general, I say Russian, he's actually churching, a man called Al-Oudinov, again has predicted that this will be the last year of the war, we shall see. Yeah, so Blinken in a statement yesterday said that the situation in Harkov is stable, thanks to US weapons. Everything is stable now. Yes. It's the usual stories that we're hearing, the Americans always tell us these things. The British sometimes, the British, by the way, have suddenly become much more pessimistic, even as the Americans preserve sublime levels of optimism. Now, it's absolutely true that the front lines in Harkov region haven't changed dramatically for several weeks now. But the reason for that is because the Russians instead of advancing are goading the Ukrainians, as I said, to attack them. And of course, this plays again to the Russian advantage, because what they're doing is they're taking apart the Ukrainian troops who have been sent to Harkov to try to counterattack the Russians there. And to the extent that advances do continue to happen in this area, they continue to happen in this town, Volchans, which is the one I think that the Russians ultimately do want to capture. So Blinken again shows his complete lack of understanding of what has been happening on the ground in this war. It might help him if you actually listen to what Ukrainian commanders are saying. One of the leading commanders of the Azov Brigade has given an interview, for example, for Ukrainian television in which he straightforwardly said the situation is getting worse and worse. Ukraine is suffering unreplaceable losses, and it is losing the war. He is the person you should listen to, not Blinken, who has said there's no real contact with reality. Yeah, so the Russian intel services, they've said it, they've said in the past many times that that Alinsky is going to be replaced by the collective West. So they're coming out and they're saying it again. What do you think the reason is for them saying it again? Are they really in possession of some information, some reliable information that does point to the fact that Zelensky is going to be removed? Or are they just messing around with his mind? Because everyone knows that Alinsky is in a panic over his legitimacy. Everyone knows it, everyone sees it, and they just said, okay, let's just mess around with him a little bit more and talk about how the West is going to drop him. I think it is 70% messing around with his head, and also making him more things more unstable in Kiev itself, and creating problems between Zelensky and the Americans. Because we know from the Financial Times that his relations with the Biden administration are very bad, and that he doesn't trust them anymore. Remember, the Financial Times used the word paranoid to describe his feelings about the Americans, saying, you know, they're playing all that. But of course, I also think something else actually. I think the Russians are much better informed about the situation in Kiev than they were two years ago when the Special Military Operation began. Because I'm going to make a guess, this is a pure guess now, that all sorts of people in Kiev are now seeing the way things are going, and they're probably saying to themselves, the time has come to start cutting deals, including with the Russians. And I think part of those deals include passing information to the Russians, something which you didn't see very much of earlier in the war. So I suspect the Russians do have more information than they did, but I think mostly it's about, as I said, playing with Zelensky's brain, messing him up, increasing his paranoia and anger towards the Americans. He's again being complaining that Ukraine isn't getting enough weapons. He always complains Ukraine isn't getting enough weapons. Apparently, his officials now say that $60 billion wasn't enough. They need $800 billion. I've actually seen that figure floating around. So I mean, you know, it's, it gives you a sense of, you know, the extent of the demands that they're making now. Yeah, the UK media reported on that. They needed $800 billion. I think is what they said. Yeah, just make it a, just make it a trillion. Why not? Well, absolutely. Why not? Yeah. What's a trillion? Just print it, just print it and give it to him. Yeah. Yermak said that there's going to be a second piece summit and that the Russians may be invited. What do you make of that? Well, the Russians have already pretty much indicated that if there is, they are not going. I think that my own view is that this piece process that, I wasn't really a piece process, but this process that was started back in August with that first meeting in Copenhagen, which Sullivan organized. This is, you remember, it was the time when the Ukrainian offensive was still underway. And it was clearly set up in expectations of a Ukrainian breakthrough. And the idea was that they'd get all these countries from around the world. The Ukrainians would be on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. So this would be the moment to present the Russians with an ultimatum. And most of the world would support it. And of course, it didn't turn out like that. But again, rather than drop that plan, they persisted with it. It became increasingly clear that more and more countries were becoming bored with that process. So they got the Swiss to try to take it further by arranging this piece summit. We've said an awful lot about the piece summit and the way it completely fell apart. My own sense is that this process is dead. I don't think anybody outside a few people in Washington may be London also take it seriously anymore. I doubt they even do in London, actually. The piece summit that happened in Switzerland has attracted very, very little reporting here. Well, the Europeans, I imagine, are still hoping for something. Well, the Europeans probably are. They've been out to Zelensky, they're having Project Ukraine. We have a new Secretary-General in Marketo's day. It was going to be taking over. He's hawkish on Ukraine. He absolutely despises Russia. Oh, absolutely. He loves Russia. He's one of the most viscerally anti-Russian political figures in Western Europe. So he's been brought into become NATO Secretary-General. Of course, Stoltenberg clung on to make sure that whoever took over from him would be as hard-line as he himself was. So this is what they've engineered now. So there's not going to be any shift of policy, but you can also already see what's happening. The Americans are now basically dumping Project Ukraine onto Mark Ruta and to NATO because they're saying that from now on, the US will take a backseat and NATO will take over. And it's been sold as a way of proofing support for Ukraine beyond the American election in case a certain person wins that election and that this has been done to help the Europeans. But the reality is, without the Americans, nothing can work. Everybody knows it. NATO is being set up now to take charge and take responsibility when it all goes to pieces, which it will. Everybody can see everybody who is observing the situation closely can see that. All right. Anything else to add? I'm going to say this straightforward. I think not only are we at the end of the Copenhagen process, I think we're at the end of any negotiation process at all. My own senses that the Russians set out their proposals at this foreign ministry board meeting when Putin gave his speech. I don't think the Russians have any expectation whatsoever that the Western powers are interested in negotiating a deal with them at all. I think they've written off Zelensky. They don't believe Zelensky has any possibility of negotiating with them. And they say he's illegitimate. So I think the Russians have just decided now that there's no point any further. They've set out what they wanted to set out. Now they'll just continue and win the war. And I think that is now the thinking in Moscow. I think that they've looked at what the Americans have to say, what the Europeans have to say. They've looked at the situation in Kiev. They're aware of the situation on the battlefronts. All their pieces are in place on the board, the chess board, which is the wall. And now all it's left is that they're going to move the pieces. I don't know how long it's going to take. I don't know what their military plans are. But I think that from this point onwards, the idea that a negotiated outcome to this war will come. I think that is passed. I think that is over. And I think the Russians have also, by the way, concluded that the talk of NATO direct intervention in Ukraine is a bluff and that the rest won't follow through. And I think they're probably right about that. I think that the European elections, which we've just seen, basically confirm it. So I think from now on, this is purely a military conflict and the outcome will be decided entirely on the battlefield. There won't be any negotiations at all. Yeah, that was the last deal that Putin offered. Yes, last week. That was it. That was the last chance. They said so. I mean, they're basically saying so. And remember, the window for that, for Istanbul+, to be implemented at all, is closing. Because before very long, the Russians will have moved beyond the Donbas. And the moment they do that, the moment they're starting to take control of territory, Russian speaking territory beyond the Donbas, places like Volchants, for example. But other places in Khadaka region, in Sumi region, who knows where. The moment this that starts to happen, then really the whole situation changes to the point where Istanbul+, as Putin presented it, no longer is no longer viable. All right, we will enter there, the deran.locos.com. 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