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Get a $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. Linked in. The place to be. To be. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ One is up everybody. Thank you all for joining me on the latest broadcast part of the CSG Network. Of course, your host, Jeff Morton. Today is the final installment of our dream in nightmare scenarios for the Denver Nuggets. Thank you for coming with me through this series. This is the last one the draft is in one day. It's tomorrow as of this recording. I would have had something I would have had a podcast yesterday, but it was too hot. And my air conditioner broke and it was very hot. And I didn't want to be miserable while I was recording. So in a much better situation now and I'm getting into this. So this is this one's going to be on the draft. 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The CBA was signed during the 22-23 season, which was Calvin's first year. And the Booth philosophy began prior to the knowledge of the new CBA. And this is something that I want to reiterate to people. I'm going to start off this podcast with an anecdote. And I'm just kind of riff the rest of the podcast because I just have a ton of thoughts that I want to get out. I sort of feel like if anyone's ever seen the movie Friday the 13th, the guy on the bicycle that told the kids that they were impending doom happening to them at the camp, this is, I feel like the old man on the bicycle. Because I don't mean to be as, you know, things should be good. The Nuggets won 57 games last year. They're tied to franchise record. You know, they didn't really overcome the loss of Bruce Brown, but they did, you know, they did get a better season than I thought they would have been able to do with the departure of Bruce Brown. But they, the Nuggets, they're, I think there has been a little bit of a approach with this new front office to put their stamp on the team. And I think that has particularly last off season, it overrode some probably better thought that should have been had, particularly when it came to the draft picks that were, got, got, came in, particularly the two second round draft picks. And I'll get into that in the second half. Really, what we have here is an approach from Calvin Booth that predates the new CBA. I have an anecdote because during the 22 off season, there was really a lot of chaos. Obviously, Tim Connolly left, and then the Nuggets just promoted Calvin Booth, who was the assistant GM since 2018. I think he was here in Arcturus' last season, last two seasons. He was the assistant to Arcturus' Carnezova, basically. And what I have been seeing the Denver Nuggets is an interesting approach. There's definitely a difference in philosophy between Tim Connolly and Calvin Booth. They were only in Calvin Booth's third off season. So we're going to be really kind of seeing how the rubber meets the road here, and I'm very worried about how it's going to be happening. The dream and nightmare scenario of this situation is the, is the Nuggets' stand-pat, even if they lose KCP. And you're seeing it on the other side of the Cronkey Enterprise with both the Rams and the Colorado Avalanche. They will win, they both win titles in consecutive years. Actually, three consecutive years between the Rams, the Avalanche, and the Denver Nuggets. And what you've been seeing, though, is that the Rams struggled right after. They won the Super Bowl to get back to that level. Same thing with the Avalanche. The Avalanche have actually slowly been getting worse. And the Nuggets, last year, claimed out in the second round against the Tim Connolly general-managed team. And I think there is a worry and a concern that there is a philosophical approach, not only from Calvin Booth, but through the Denver Nuggets themselves, going up to Josh Cronkey, that we just, we are patient to a fault and we will only make moves when absolutely necessary, which actually is a very Cronkey sports philosophy, to be honest with you, which explains why there is no practice facility right now. Here's the anecdote. In '22, when Calvin came in, it was just, as I said, it was chaotic. There was a lot of stuff going on. And I came in with an open mind into the draft. The draft really was the first test. And I was very surprised that Calvin Booth ended up drafting as many players as he did. In fact, two first round picks. Along with, obviously, then later, he got Bruce Brown and Contavis Caldwell Pope, and there was all this that happened. The Pope trade was always going to happen. The Nuggets attempted to, and were intending on trading for Contavis Caldwell Pope during Tim Connolly's last year here. That was part of the thing. That was always the intent. I struggled to give Calvin credit for just following through with something that was already going to happen. But the Bruce Brown thing was probably the single most consequential deal that Calvin Booth did, more than Christian Brown, more than Peyton Watson, more than any of the other subsequent move. So when the Nuggets ended up drafting three rookies, one on a non-guaranteed with Colin Gillespie and the two guarantee contracts, I asked around, and I said, "Is this unusual? Do you usually see teams that are trying to," and this is before the Nuggets won the title, obviously, "do you usually see teams draft two first round picks during a title window?" Because it seems very unusual to devote two roster spots to rookies. And I was told repeatedly, "This has never happened. This never happens unless they trade up, like for Kawhi Leonard, and we will get to that in the second half as well." So I was like, "Okay, this is unusual." Now the Nuggets ended up winning the title, largely based on the signing of Bruce Brown. That was the single, as I said, most consequential signing of the Calvin Booth era. He was perfect for the team, not due to individual talent. Bruce Brown fit in like a glove with this team, a Michael Malone/Nicole Yokech team. So that ended up working out in spades, and then, of course, due to the circumstances and what they had to sign him at, they couldn't re-sign him, and then the rest of that particular thing, history. But it worked. You can't say something that results in the title isn't something that is wildly successful. So I went into that season like filing that away at the back of my mind. Two draft picks, that's really unusual. Late round draft picks too. Now Christian Brown was largely successful because he was surrounded by, he's one of those high floor guys, so he was surrounded by a bunch of veterans. But people seem to forget about that 2023 Nuggets team, there was a bunch of veterans on the bench. It wasn't like this year where there was just so many rookies. So the Nuggets go into the 2023 offseason. Obviously, they lose Bruce Brown after they win the title. Wildly successful. Once again, I'm going to give Calvin Booth all the kudos in the world for signing Bruce Brown. Literally, you can rank it up there with among the most consequential signings in Denver Nuggets history. We get to this offseason and I was very surprised after that before losing Jeff Green and Bruce Brown, the Nuggets win ahead and signed three more rookies. And gave two rookies who are drafted in the second rounds, guaranteed contracts, they didn't have to give them. And obviously, I'm not going to repeat history. Everyone who has listened to this podcast for the last year knows that I was like, "Whoa, that's really weird." One of the reasons NFL style teams, and maybe even NHL style teams, are able to do this sort of thing and get away with it, even though I don't necessarily, it applies to hockey, is that you, in the football, you have so many people who are drafted. There's seven rounds. In the old days, it was 11 rounds, but there's seven rounds. And it's just you're drafting boatloads of people every single year. It is literally you're bringing in a shitload of just new players every single year. And there's no guarantee contracts. And the player movement is really, really, really, really prevalent in the NFL. It is a different animal. No league can be compared to the NFL. One of the reasons it's difficult in the NBA is then when you sign a player, you're locked in, and what has happened is the Nuggets approach began to show its cracks. The booth approach, specifically, began to show its cracks this last year. The Nuggets really, you saw what the effect of so much youth on the roster did. Because despite the Nuggets winning 57 games, there was an over-reliant, the reason they got two 57 games winning was because the veterans decided, after the All-Star break, that they were going to put the pedals into a medal. It wasn't the rookies. It wasn't this approach. And people have misremembered this because Malone did play Peyton Watson. Malone did play, Julian Strathard, before he got injured. I think we have kind of memory hold all of that because after the All-Star break, the veterans were the ones who said we were going to go balls to the wall here. That is kind of obscured the way the Nuggets looked during the year, which was inconsistent, less than a championship team. And that had to do with the fact that Malone thought he didn't think that he had a ton that he could rely on in the bench, and there was so much youth. When the Nuggets came in in the 2023 all season, they ended up drafting all those guys and getting the two second round picks guarantee contracts, which was very unusual. I mean, I think what you're seeing right now with the Denver Nuggets is the most unusual thing you've seen. And in the second half of the podcast, I'm going to talk about this draft and how it relates to potentially losing KCP and how the 2023 off season could be an educational thing for this team going forward, not to be in harbors or doing like I have been normally. But first, I want to talk to you about Blanchard family wines located between 18th and 19th and Blake and Wazzy in beautiful lower downtown Denver, Colorado. Just a couple blocks away from course field right in the middle of the area block. They're always online at bfwcolorado.com. They're on Facebook and Instagram under Blanchard family wines. My favorite place in Denver, my favorite place just for the vibes. It's great to just go down there and just chill. And there's nothing I like more than chilling. Just go down there, enjoy what they got to offer. They got all manner of reds. They got all manner of whites. Check out their Pinot. It's really good. Check out their Cabernet, which is also very good. But if you're into whites, the Riesling is the grape of Colorado. So if you're into that kind of semi-sweet white wine, try to check out a Riesling. It's a good kind of summer drink. In fact, both, if you like, into reds, Pinot is a great summer drink. And Riesling is a spectacular summer drink. Those two things are things that I would highly recommend. But everything they got is really good. You can also try wine cocktails if you're not into just straight wine. They got a location in Fort Collins. They got a location in Golden. And of course, their original location in Sonoma County. Once again, they're located between 18th and 19th. And Blake Nwasi in beautiful Lower downtown. Denver, Colorado, just a couple blocks away from course field. Right in the middle of their block. They're always online at bfwcolorado.com. They're on Facebook and Instagram under Blanchard family wines. When you go in or you talk to him, tell him Jeff Morton from CSU Podcast sent you. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laughing at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B. But with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/results to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it, Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery. So you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-Grange-er, click Granger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. What's the easiest choice you can make? Window instead of middle seat? Picking a vendor who sends a great gift basket, outsourcing business tasks you hate. What about selling with Shopify? Whether you're selling a little or a lot, Shopify helps you do your thing. However you cha-ching, Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. From the launch your online shop stage to the first real-life store stage, all the way to the "Did we just hit a million orders" stage, Shopify is there to help you grow. Whether you're selling scented soap or offering outdoor outfits, Shopify helps you sell wherever and whatever you're selling. Shopify's got you covered. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com/try. Go to Shopify.com/try now to grow your business, no matter what stage you're in. Shopify.com/try. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it, Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery so you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-Granger, click Granger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. The Nuggets philosophy has been one that has been hard to reconcile with the title contention. You have a once-in-a-generation player who is increasingly surrounded by young players. I said this before, I'm not going to say it again. You reset the clock when you bring in more youth and it lowers your curve because you have to devote time to developing youth. So I fundamentally disagree with Adam Wares. My friend Adam Wares, I fundamentally disagree that the Nuggets should have played, devoted all this time to jail and pick it last year, to any of the rookies. The Booth approach is not one that I agree. However, I do think and based on this, this, this, chaste, not chaste, but this rather demure press conference and people have kind of memory hold that too. I mean, things happen so fast in the NBA, you just kind of forget about it. But that indices and presser was really weird. It was, the tone was terrible. They were all really subdued and just kind of sheepish and including Josh Kronky. And my takeaway from it was that the Nuggets are unsure of themselves. And some of it has to do with the CBA, but some of it has to do with the fact that you have a coach who wants to win and you have a general manager who is desperate to put his stamp on the Denver Nuggets. And those two things are going to come into conflict. Hovering over this whole thing is Nicole Yochich. I'm not entirely sure if the Nuggets have asked Nicole Yochich what he wants on this. I am, I'm curious about that. I have no inside information about whether they have or they haven't. But it doesn't seem like there's been a ton of consultation about what Nicole Yochich wants. There's all this happening. So the Nuggets go into this draft as in one of the most pivotal drafts they will ever face. I think the inclination is to say that the Denver Nuggets intent for this year for this year is to write it out for one more year. And by that, I mean coach. By that, I mean the booth approach. By that, I mean the decision on KCP, which I will probably address when the draft is over. My, if you're going to ask me right now, I think the Nuggets lose KCP. I just don't think the Nuggets are in a position right now to compete with the offers on the market. And if they go well into the tax for this, they're going to have to make other decisions. Well into the second April, excuse me, for this, they're going to have to make decisions. But we'll get to that after the draft. The booth approach is novel because you don't usually see contending teams depress their curve intentionally. Usually it just happens to you circumstances, injury, all this stuff. It usually is something natural like that. It's very unusual for a team to say we are going to replace Bruce Brown with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green with three rookies. We're going to replace potentially KCP with two more rookies. You don't see that and you don't see it for a reason because obviously as I said before, the development takes a curve. Rookies are not on the same developmental curve as veterans. And there's a reason Team filled with rookies does not win a title. It just is what it is. So this is the booth approach. And Calvin started this prior to the new CBA. This is why I think this is a pivotal year for everyone. I am inclined to think Denver Nuggets are not going to do too many crazy things this offseason. I do think they want to sign KCP and I do think they are prepared to go into the second April 4 KCP. But I do think that there are other decisions that need to be made. Very importantly, Jamal Murray's extension and very importantly, Aaron Gordon's extension next year that are going to be directly impacted by what the Nuggets do this offseason. So this is one of the most pivotal off seasons we have ever seen. And I do believe that the Nuggets intent is to largely take the same approach again and then see what happens in 2025. I do think that this is part of the calculus. And I think that there is just the Nuggets are too far committed to not deviate. I don't know anything about these draft prospects. Honestly, I'm not a draft Nick. I've told the story many times before, but 10 years ago, I was a big fan of Mario Hisonia and I thought one of the Nuggets draft them. And I remember Tim Connolly openly laughing at me when I told him that. I mean, he literally laughed at me. And then Mario Hisonia ends up being a big flame out in the NBA. And that was the end of my study in the draft. I'll leave that to the experts on these things. But what I can talk about is the amount. What I can talk about is the percentage of rookie to veteran. As I said in the first podcast of this series, the Denver Nuggets are really stuck in this low floor. This is going to be low ceiling high floor mode because of where they've been drafting. And what has bugged me is that you're losing talent and you're not replacing them with equivalent talent. You lose Bruce Bound and you replace it with three rookies who need development. You're potentially, you lose Jeff Green and Jeff Green is obviously washed at this point. But man, he was a veteran presence and you can't replace that sort of thing with just Joe Schmo rookie. Low round rookie to boot. Second round rookie. There's just a value to that. And then this year the Nuggets are potentially losing. Contabious Caldwell Pope. Who do you replace him with? Christian Brown. Well, the offense goes into the tank largely because of that. And then you're over relying on yokech again. Where my concern is with each, I described this to another person in the NBA last week. I said it's death by a thousand cuts because you are dealing with a scenario where even if you replace him with these approach. So you have safe picks, quote unquote, safe picks old rookies or considered safe picks. Guys with don't necessarily aren't going to wow you with their upside talent. But they're going to be competent and they're not going to fuck up. Basically that's upside picks. And that you don't replace them with the equivalent talent. You don't replace them with the upside which comes with either A being a veteran or B with just being one of those guys is a natural floor lifter. So the Nuggets are really kind of getting out of treadmill of mediocrity with these picks. And that is my issue with the Booth approach. It's twofold. You're making the team younger and you are also kind of not replacing the talent going out with equivalent talent. But I do believe this offseason the Nuggets intent is to go ahead and draft someone at 28 and draft someone in the second round. This is the this is the prove it year. Believe it or not of the Calvin Booth era. And it's also the prove it year for Michael Malone. The Nuggets my full expectation is the Nuggets will not make an earth shaking move. The move after the draft is going to center around KCP. They want to bring him back. I think the Nuggets will ride it back with who they have on the roster largely this next year. I've heard a lot of podcasts. I've seen a lot of a lot of analysis that thinks the Nuggets are going to make a trade featuring Zeek Naji and Reggie Jackson. My response to that is I don't see people valuing either of those players enough to give the Nuggets anything other than salary relief. I don't think you're going to put to you this way. I don't think you're improving the roster if you trade both of those guys. They're kind of a net negative neutral. So they are who they are. There's also a lot of people who want them to play jail and pick it. I mean honestly I don't know anything about the guy. No offense. I don't know anything about jail and pick it. There's people who are very enthusiastic about him. I think that if there is I tend to believe coaches when they don't play someone for a reason. Sometimes that's a stylistic thing and sometimes that is a philosophical thing but most of the time it is because of they're not impressing. People kind of forget this sort of thing. If a guy is impressive he will play. The only time I can really think that didn't happen was Michael Paul Jr. And the Nuggets traded Tory Craig specifically because that was about values because Michael Malone values defense more than anything else. And obviously Mike is not the most impressive defensive player. And Tory Craig was supposedly a great defensive player and he wasn't. But that was that was what was valued there. And then and Tim Connolly was like I got a trade Tory. Otherwise he never got to play Mike. And that worked out. So you know look it could be a do a situation where the Nuggets say all right the only reason we're going to trade Reggie Jackson. And we've got a couple in technology is because we have to get relief for we're all in on Calvin Booth's all in on Jalen Pickett. So yeah I could see that happening. But I don't see them big changes happening. I don't see the Nuggets willing to depart this year from the Booth philosophy. And the booth booth philosophy is fully committed now they were in the third off season. You are now fully into you can't blame Tim Connolly. Okay. This is Calvin Booth's team at this point and off season number three the more rookies he adds the more the more of that that goes on. He fully owns what's going on. You can't blame Tim for the contracts. You can't do all any of that. You are fully in Calvin Booth era. And this is why I do believe the Nuggets will be one more year going forth and largely standing pet. The hinge point is with obviously as far as the team fortunes go. It really is with Contabious Caldwell Pope. If the Nuggets lose him you're going to hear a lot of speeches about Bruce and about Christian Brown. You'll be hearing a lot of speeches about how he can step up. You'll be hearing all of that stuff. It's just it's going to happen. The Nuggets will be doing the hard sell on that. But due to the second apron and the reluctance to trade more of the starting lineup. You're going to see another rookie on this on this squad. It's just going to be what it is. The Nuggets will win 50 games. We'll see where it goes from there. But I'm concerned about how heavily you're relying on Nicole Hoekich at this point. The Nuggets don't really have to make a decision on Jamal Murray for an extension during the season. I mean really that's where it is. So the Nuggets are really going to be having to make a lot of decisions during this year. Anywhere up to the trade deadline. Now caveat is usual. New TV deal comes in and takes effect. Not this season but the season after. So teams will know the salary cap and they'll make adjustments there. Beyond that then you'll have the expansion draft which will relieve a lot of the congestion you have right now. You'll have 30 roster spots guaranteed roster spots open up. You'll have the expansion draft and it'll get them. As I said before over and over and over the expansion at this point is necessary because you need to make the league worse for it to get better. The league is not in a good place right now and it's because there's a talent congestion going on. And I think the Nuggets are part of that issue right now as they need their needs to be relieved. It's going to be happening in the future. Not now but in the future once that's known then other teams can make a decision on their rosters. But as for this this year and this sounds pessimistic. I think the Nuggets will win over 50 games and it'll be a good team again this year largely because of Nicole Yoakich. But this is a pivot point this year. This is a crucial year. And Nuggets are going to go into this draft. Probably draft some guy at 28. Get a drag guy in the second round. And then hope on KCP. And we'll see. We'll see. But I don't expect a ton to happen right now because there's so much uncertainty right now with Jamal's contract with Aaron Gordon's future. There is in his extension eligible the next year. So it is really truly one of those moments where you can see the booth era either excelling. Or falling apart. And the 24 25 season is going to be that. And we will see how this looks. I don't expect the Nuggets to make any big moves. I really don't. So in this final part. Yeah. This is neither a dream nor a nightmare. It's the same. And this is really truly where I think the Nuggets are going to go. I will come on here and report and talk about things if they change dramatically. But I just don't see anything different happening. I just don't. The Nuggets are in a financial position to not be able to tinker. Tinkering is going to be very difficult for this team due to where they are financially unless they trade NPJ. And I don't think they're inclined to do that. All right. Thank you all for joining me on the latest forecast. I will be back after the draft, which is two days this week. So Wednesday and Thursday, and I will be talking to you. If something major happens after the first round, I'll let you know. I don't think there will be. If not, I'll be back at the usual spot on Friday. See you then. Bye. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] Hey, your job. Do you ever have to deal with a nose roller? How about a snub bully? Well, if you're installing a new conveyor belt system, dealing with the different components can sound like you're speaking a foreign language. Luckily, you've got a team ready to help. Granger's technical product specialists are fluent in maintenance, repair, and operations. So whenever you want to talk shop, just reach out. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done.
In the final installment of Dream and Nightmare scenarios for the Nuggets, Jeff talks about the "Booth approach" to the Nuggets and how he believes the team will stick to the rookie stockpile approach for one more offseason. How Booth's Boy's will get one more shot.
