What's on the horizon for financial markets? At PJIM, it's a question that over 1,400 investment professionals relentlessly research in pursuit of your long-term goals. Specialised across asset classes, but united in collaboration, our teams provide global and local expertise. Our investments shape tomorrow, today. Pursue your tomorrow with PJIM, a leading global asset manager. It's Jim Cramer here, you're listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action. Good Friday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Keaton, Ayoah. Jim Cramer at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Faber as the morning off. Final trading day of the month, the quarter and the first half of as futures go green on this friendly core PCE print, mostly in line. And you'll read down to two-six, bonds do catch a bid 10-year, four-two-six. Roadmap begins with politics though, and your portfolio, markets are pricing in the chance of a Trump victory or the chance of a new candidate after last night's debate performance. Nike shares are tumbling after that sales and guidance miss, and as we said, futures in the green, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge does show continued slowing inflation. Let's begin though with last night's debate between the President and former President Trump and the implications for markets, Jim. The word disaster being used quite a bit in the journal today regarding President Biden. Does it spur you to make any investment decisions? Yes. And I think that you asked me that way because I think that I don't really have that much poor data on what the press has said. Michael Sambliss, by the way, is my guy for the most part, shaping morning, because he does talk about what happens if Biden drops out and does reference the fact that this is the opportunity, perhaps, he keeps saying a noose, a noose. So let's leave it at that. What I would like to talk about is that there are very specific issues that are pulled forward. If you do think that there's a greater chance now that Trump will win, then what you must worry about is a true trade war with China, not a tip for tad, but an actual thing that would really make it so that two of the stocks that are absolutely horrendous here anyway, Starbucks and Nike, they would be most hurt. We'll go in the Nike later. Nike actually had the ability to make the Starbucks look good, which is really quite a statement right there. But one of the things that you want to worry about is Powell, because a lot of people feel that Powell is soft landing, so you might have the change, of course, there. Who knows? Maybe pardons Peter Navarro. Navarro comes back to the Secretary of State, and he's the most anti-China person I have ever read and had the ability to talk to. But you would say, "Okay, listen, there's no more reason why Kroger Albersons would be blocked." There won't be any blocking of tapestry capri, which is, these are FTC names. There won't be a move to break up or stymie Amazon. Apple will no longer be in the crosshairs of the Justice Department. There will be a sense that there can be more media mergers. And then I think that one of the just, we want to take some odd ones, something like the plaintiff's bar will be neutered, which means you have to go buy J&J. They actually benefited from the bankruptcy ruling involving opioids and the Sackler's yesterday. So, it's incremental. A lot of people want a stock. I always come up with a stock that really does work, and if David Faber were here, he would say, "Well, what's the key to this market?" Well, I would say, "No, look, if you want one that has been directly hurt, that's down 36% since the ruling by Biden. It's new fortress energy, which is a very good company. It's West Eden's most rapidly affected by the temporary clause of the approval of the new LNG export." I mentioned that because point blank, Trump has said that goes, the temporary clause goes, so therefore you buy it. Although he did get at least one approval yesterday regarding some of these Louisiana facilities, not for the export, but parts of those are moving ahead. Right. It's just that when I had Wes on, Wes is quite a visionary. The idea was was that who is going to most take advantage of the fact that we are the most, the biggest exporter, Semper just had that deal yesterday with the Saudis, which is incredible. That's Jeff Martin. He's an amazing CEO. So I'm trying to be very practical in this. More mergers, less business with China, maybe NAFTA comes up in 2026 and that goes. Right. So I don't want to- You pull the trigger on these or are these just decisions on their on deck? That's a great question. I'm afraid to pull the trigger because I do think that when you read a lot of the Democrats who are saying that he can't be the nominee, and you decide that there's a nominee, and the nominees makes it so that you think that Trump's beatable, then these things are just going to bury you. Right. I can't do that. Right. These are the ones, if you think that Trump's more likely to win, I just gave you 10 ideas. So you were assembling a playbook? It doesn't mean that you were actually picking up the phone. No, I have to. I mean, I don't have- My politics are opaque and not valuable. There are so many great people who are speaking. The previous three hours of our network was devoted to what will happen. But you know, when you get a happy birthday to Elon Musk- 53. Yeah, Elon Musk is very much very pro-Trump, and remember, Trump is not anti-union versus the president who is the most union president. Trump has favored non-union and Biden's pro-union, so you could say, "Well, listen, buy Tesla." But you know what? Somebody's been thinking buy Tesla because that stock has had a remarkable movement. That's true. It's a complicated trade Tesla because Trump hasn't been essentially exactly behind the EV push. No, he hasn't. So that's why I mean, that's why the ones I gave are very, very pure. I mean, remember, the most pro-oiling gas president that we've had is going to make it so that if you wanted to buy export LNG, if you wanted to buy the idea that oil will be unfettered, then there's a lot of companies to buy. Peter Thiel, talking to Andrew, by the way, in a fantastic week of coverage out in Aspen, did say in an A/B test, he would air for Trump. But then he said that post-election, there might be some buyer's remorse because an election is about the choice between two, would you be worried about things like labor supply, if deportations became a real thing? Well, labor supply is the biggest issue. But you know what? When we even interviewed the labor secretary, we'll leave you to anyone from the administration, they never talk about it because obviously they think it's a hot button. But what matters is how many visas they won't tell us, they haven't told it because, look, if you run a small business and you're hiring a legal immigrant, you're still, they're going to go after you, they still do. I mean, it's one of the most important reasons, one of the reasons why people use A&P is why they use paychecks, is because they want to immunize themselves because therefore it's vetted. So, yeah, I think that that's a very good point that wages would go up and that's an unintended consequence. But I do think that so many leaps forward that I feel like, therefore, I am pro-Trump. I'm just saying this is what's going to happen. And I'm not pro-Trump, I'm not pro-Bied, I'm trying to pro-help people make money. And I don't, and if I want to help people make money to say that you should go buy LNG is to say, no, if you believe that Trump wins, then you should do this because I don't want to ever say, look, this is what I would go buy. Right. It's too risky. Yeah, I can't work. No, I mean, there's going to be a lot of twists and turns, not just here, but we got our first round of snap pulls in France on Sunday, where Le Pen's lead continues to widen. Well, look, I mean, if you're a nationalist, it's very interesting to me. It's nationalism versus price, by the way, Apple cuts price, they get sales better. Yes, yes. Price Trump's nationalism when it comes to China, so that just shows you how convoluted everything is. Obviously, President Trump is a nationalist, we know that, and he's not a globalist. But it's not like globalists have produced a lot of trade for us, but it hasn't because frankly, Secretary Romando, who is driving a lot of commerce, has been incredibly pro development here, that's important because of Taiwan, and risk about Taiwan building things here. I don't think that ceases. I'm looking for things where there's a clear delineation, and you know, Pal gets fired. So if you think Pal's a hack, not doing a good job, I find that hard to believe I'm watching this PCE, I'm saying the soft land he's going, I don't want to sign a new pilot in the air, but I'm pro soft landing. That's one I want. So you would be worried about losing Pal? Okay, I'm going to, I'm not a political guy, but I think J Pal's amazing. I think he's really good. I'm just putting that out there. I think he's a great, I don't know his politics either. I think he's a really outstanding Fed Chief, and has done a remarkable job, and I would think it would be horrible if he would. Right. That's further into PCE in a bit. Jim does mention Nike though, and it is down big in the pre-market, posting this revenue miss, issuing a sales warning for the current year. Company says Q4 results were hurt by weaker demand for footwear, softer traffic, higher promotions, DTC, FEL8. This is John Donahoe on the call last night. For the quarter, we saw strong gains within performance product. However, this is more than offset by declines in lifestyle. DTC clients had a pronounced impact on our digital results. These factors, when combined with increased macro uncertainty and worsening foreign exchange, have caused us to reduce our guidance for fiscal 25. While fiscal 25 will be a transition year for our business, we continue to make real progress on our comeback. Got at least four downgrades. Yeah, you just listened to the big winner from last night, because this is all I would be talking about. I've gone through the last four quarters, the conference calls this morning. They didn't see this coming. Wow, this is very, very bad quarter, and it's the calls management of the question. There's in a single piece that doesn't say that maybe management is off-base here. When you see it, we expect first quarter revenue to be down, approximately 10%. What happens is, this is not only a growth story, it's a story that obviously peaked. If we were here listening to OI or listening to Deckers, which is Hoka, we would say, "Wow, the sneaker business is on fire." This was a terrible quarter. There really were no saving braces. If you go back into the head fake quarter, there's a great head fake quarter, which was the September of 2023 quarter, where they were really talking about how, listen, we're totally back, and lifestyle is really fabulous. Accelerated digital capabilities, trying are really strong. That's, by the way, if you take a look at the chart, that's when it spiked up to 120. Everything's reversed since then. Everything. Not a single line isn't bad, and I know that during the, and be really critical here, during the Mark Parker days, these were, I used to call these well orchestrated. I actually wrote a book and I said, "Listen, if you want to know how to have a conference call, go over what Mark Parker does." He talks about new. He talks about fresh. He talks about teamwork. People often, they discuss what's really going right, and then you have the CFO talk about what's going to happen. These were the most well-restreated calls ever. I always felt that people who wanted to do a conference, they should know how to listen to the Nike call, and by the way, to the Starbucks call. Now, Nike and Starbucks, strangely, are the two worst calls. There wasn't all bad. I mean, Jordan revenue up six, inventory down 11. Yeah, I just think that what you thought that you liked about digital, doing well, lifestyle, making a big turn, parisolipics mentioned repeatedly in previous calls. I'm just doing, I'm doing textual analysis versus previous calls. You can see that if you look at what the benchmark that they set was, they missed their own benchmark. Can I find good things to say? Absolutely. But can I, but I'm really judging how long management was about the future, and the revenue down 10% was just a gaff. I think that a lot of people were kind of upset, Carl, because the CEO acts as if it was good quarter, and you have to throw your, that's something, by the way, that I saw with the locksman at a seven-inch Starbucks. The really great CEOs in this country, when they have, I don't care. No, I'm, my only chuckle because if Donahoe gets the treatment you gave locksman last time, he was on the show. No, he doesn't. He's a trouble. Come on. What I have to say is, "Here's how you're supposed to do it." And I've been involved, and I've had to do it, and I don't like it. You have to start saying, "I did not do a good job. My team is trying very hard. I like my team. I will not let my team down again. I will not let the shareholders, but I did this quarter." And here's the three ways that I screwed up, and what I intend to prove, but believe me, I don't have it yet. And then you know what happens. Here's the question. You're very critical of yourself. So tell me some of the things that you're working on. And then again, well, you see, my team is great. I didn't lead. I have this, this, this. Wow. It sounds like you might be having a plan. No, I do not have a plan yet. If I had a plan to come forward, what I'm still doing is assessing where I got it wrong. Humility goes a long way in the first quarter. You come back with a second quarter in your humble, "I don't care. You didn't make the playoffs. It's a little NFL like." But what you do is you just throw, I mean, I learned this from people like Andy Reid. You know, I'm talking about people who are great leaders in the concept of contests. John Donnell is in a contest, okay? He's in a contest of versus hoku. He's in a contest versus a one. He's in a contest versus Adidas. Andy Reid's in a concept versus the highest, most difficult world that we have, which is the NFL. And the first thing he says is like, "I did not do a good job. I remember listening. I remember saying to him, "Why are you so hard on yourself?" And he said, "What am I supposed to do? We lost." Jim, we did get some personal income spending numbers today. If you string together Nike, Levi, Walgreens, General Mills, are you starting to get concerned? I think that we can, that General Mills raised price too much. Levi's was an execution issue that I think people would have had. They can't. They can't all be execution, can they? No, General Mills was. It was. No, I think they're all, they're all other peaks, which is that if you raise price too much, the new frugal consumer says, "No, Walmart, by the way, we sell Walmart down. I did a double check. I did a GPT." The exact same thing that Rainey said, she said in the previous quarter, Costco remains big. TJ remains big, Walmart remains big, Burlington remains big. So if you're offering a bargain to consumers, we love you. If you're not, if you're a breaker, we love you with 11 bucks. If you're McDonald's small fries, really? So you think that you think that the vipercation and footwear and consumer and discretionary is about pricey, elasticity, breaking. Elasticity is breaking. Carnival had a great quarter. Why? Because it's cheap. Those are great vacations. Right. They all had a bad quarter. Why? Because they raised price rates. The American consumers were bellowing against price. That is what, that is exactly, by the way, what, how expected would happen and now they're rebelling against price? That's what they're doing. As Daley said, it took a little longer than we thought, but it is happening. But they've had it. And if you don't cut price or Costco's going to make you cut price, you're coming with the Kirkland Signature, and then you're finished. When we come back, we will talk a bit more about the Fed's preferred inflation gauge as we get ready for the final trading session of the half, the quarter, and the month. Take a look at the pre-market here as we got the 10-year down to 4-2-6 or so, can it break 4-2? We'll find out later today. Stay with us. Walmart Plus Members Save On Meeting Up With Friends Save on having them over for dinner with free delivery with no hidden fees or markups. That's groceries plus napkins plus that vegetable chopper to make things a bit easier. Plus, members save on gas to go meet them in their neck of the woods. Plus, when you're ready for the ultimate sign of friendship, start a show together with your included Paramount Plus subscription. Walmart Plus Members Save On This Plus so much more. Start a 30-day free trial at walmartplus.com. Paramount Plus's central plan only, separate registration required, see you Walmart Plus turns and conditions. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man, then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get a $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit that's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. Linkedin, the place to be, to be. The data closely watched by the Fed did match expectations. Today showed inflation slowing to the annual, lowest annual rate in more than three years. Both core PCE and overall PCE from May up to six year on year, month on month core was up a tenth overall PCE unchanged. We got some relief in super core up one tenth. What's the lightest since August of '23? We're really down to rents. Rent. Even Morgan Stanley, as they said, insurance likely breaking here. Insurance is breaking. We already got in the previous CPI. I was probably saying this, that in the previous CPI, we saw the rates go down. One of the reasons the rates are going down is if you take for auto, people aren't reporting their accidents. You get some people who say, "Wow, I want to get in this game. I take their money and I don't have to worry about accidents. I can come in under everybody else. I still like chubbing that group and don't think that's a growth story. It's very different from these others." Again, I come back and say, "Soft landing, what you want to take off the tables is question that we have." You remember all these people speak and they shouldn't because it makes a pal's job part, but you got to stop taking the, is raising still on the table because these are not numbers for raise. You could very easily argue, "Listen, you got to really slay it. It's kind of like fatal attraction. I mean, we can't just slay it and then like have to, you know, boom, boom, boom." But I do think that it's going the right way and what are we supposed to do is say it's going the wrong way and it's going the right way. Fitch here is Fitch this morning, which normally track a little hawkish gym. If the trend this month continues for another two months, Fed may finally have the confidence necessary for a cut in September. I like that. It has to be three months. At one point, I think pal is really going for a little bit low on that. They started the clock again after the last, the bad CPI, three months and I think the jail say yes. But by that point, we'll be at 4.4 on the unemployment at that point. We will be looking at nothing going on year over year. They need to change the way they tabulate because they need to recognize that America shops at Walmart and Costco and Walmart's everyday low price and it's rollback prices for thousands of goods and Costco is rollback prices for, they don't have as many skews. And by the way, Amazon is rollback and if you want to know what's going on, take a look at the prices of Walgreens because they need it in place. That was by the way, I like 10 members very much. I know you do. That was a hard quarter to watch. That was a very hard one. A lot of things hard to watch. And by the way, all the guys that I've been saying tough things on, I think are terrific. It doesn't matter. It's not about friends. It's about money. When we come back, we'll get Kramer's mad dash, a bunch of names to get to today. We've got some downgrades of not just Nike but Google today. Nice. Some initiations of names like Cat, a little bit more on Micron and Sanjay's chat with Jim last night when we return. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/results to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be. As we said years about half over, take a look at some S&P gainers for the year to date. There's SMCI at the top, followed by NVIDIA, Constellation Energy Jam, a lot of the components of playbooks you've been talking about for months. This is really what, look, it's about the data center and power and constellations, the cleanest power because that's what they created. What a great story that is helped. Meantime, opening bell coming up in five minutes and don't forget, you can catch us anytime anywhere. Just listen to and follow the Squawk on the street, opening bell podcast. Time for Kramer's Matt Dash as we count down to the bell. Yes, yesterday we had our Clops Club, one people to listen to it, Jeff Marks and I went over. We're going to be at the NBC Investing Club and we recommend a stock that's pushed pretty hard today by Susquehanna, which is a company called Next Tracker. Next Tracker is an industrial solar play. A lot of the ones that have fallen apart are for people who are putting solar on roofs. That tends to be about credit for individuals, that's why those stocks are all broken. Next Tracker, which sells at 16 times earnings, has got a very good book of business, is about making it so that you get more power, more kilowatts out of a typical solar field by making it so the solar field is just and catch the sun wherever, which is why they even have, they even have contracts in Scandinavia. This is about, once again, how do you make it so your emissions are lower if you're a hyperscaler, because you want to use solar, solar's going to be 25% of the grid by 2030. This is actually dropping back a little, so this is a play on the 20th building, this season by the companies, not by the presidents, to be able to have, it's really a lower footprint. It's a great lower footprint named NXT, Dan Sugar, very, very, very, very, very proud. You were telling me how much work went into this pick? Oh my, well, you remember, we're very responsive to our club members, and what are we going to be trying to do? Is we make it so that if people say, "Help look like a name you want, but kind of give you a new investment." Over and over again, we keep hearing you like me or something a little more. [MUSIC] And that's the most impressive $7.8 million name. I am that Dan on a bike of time. I feel really good about the idea that you ever present it, solar power, and it's going to be a big predominant source of growth in our grid. Let's get the opening bell here at the Big Board Oiling Gas Production Company Land Bridge celebrating an IPO. We're going to talk to the Chairman at Money movers today at the NASDAQ. Great, that's great. Immunology biotech alumnus. Also celebrating an IPO, Jim. Peace on the tape today. Best start for USIPO is in three years. Well, I mean, that's just quite good news. There is a negative or negative piece today about Thermo Fisher. And they said, "TMO, it's a great great company, Mark Casper, he's dynamite CEO." And it's talking about how there's not enough biotech money coming in. I think that that's going to be in the NASDAQ. That's where the deal is going to come because what will happen is, if you get a new president, people might think they're going to get a new one. One of the things that the FTC has been really against are these kinds of mergers that involve biotech. But the way that these big companies get their pipeline is to buy companies that are smaller. So that's what I'm looking for. Another great Danner, which is the club owns Thermo Fisher. Great ways to play. If you want to think there's a pull-through, and Trump becomes president. Reminds me of this 161-page initiation of industrials and machinery over in Ray J. No, that is where they initiate outperform Deere, Eden, Parker, Hanifen, and URI. Yeah, this is, I don't know if you remember, the battle of Borden in Worm Piece. I think it's like on pace like 600-700s. Well, that's where I am on the Battle of Borden. It's a great way to get to the end, it's great. Yeah, exactly. By the way, Bronsky is a tragic figure in a Karenina, just to put that out there. But there are, like, Dave, they like Oshkosh. I've had them on. The caterpillar's good. Now, caterpillar's been stalled, and one of the reasons why it's stalled is you have a real pro running the competition. And the only thing Jim Obele is never going to do is tell you it's going to be unbelievably good. He's just straightforward. But these companies, it all depends on how much, yes, indeed, data center you have. They do say, though, backlogs are compressing. Yes, they are. The margin peaks probably in the rear view mirror. I think so, except for if you believe, like, a caterpillar, steel is their biggest cause. And steel costs have come down rather dramatically, which is why Newport has been such a bad stop. And it's a shame. This new course is remarkable. One of the great manufacturers in our country. But, look, my favorite in this group, and it's not mentioned, is Eaton. That Charles Poston is at. And the second one is Dover. And because those aren't directly delivered to this secular growth in the data center. By the way, I was listening to Peter Teal this morning. He was talking about Nvidia and how everyone's going to catch up to Nvidia. And that, me and Nvidia then, you know, trades down. And it's a battleground stock. I recognize that. But that almost always seems that Jensen's stand is standing still. Jensen Wong. And Jensen Wong is not, he's not playing chess, you're not playing chess when we're all playing checkers. I have no idea what game he's playing. But it is so futuristic we haven't invented it yet. Except for he's invented it. So I don't like the people who say, well, everyone's going to play catch up. Because when you're actually off the desk with the companies that are involved, they're just grateful to get blackwell chips. Except for Apple, by the way, which has got all these companies that are getting blackwell chips doing their bidding. Apple continues to come out to be a huge winner. And the people who didn't see Apple coming, they didn't understand that there's a billion people that all these guys want to tap into. I mean, I also say that when you go into these chat services at any of the general AI, they're so much better than they were three months ago. Yeah. And by the way, it takes Apple to $250, that's the three firms that are in the $250, $260 range. I know. We did get Vision Pro launching in China at higher retail prices than here. Yeah, that surprised me over in Asia and Japan. That seems high because it's not selling all that well. I'm a believer in the product, but I feel very lonely. This is not, I mean, look, just the department is after Apple. Why? It's Apple. I mean, you know, one of the things that I think bother business very much is that they work backwards at just the same FTC. Okay, here's too big. As TR, as Teddy Roosevelt did, when he was looking at Standard Oil, but Standard Oil had 100% of the market because they lower price everywhere and wiped out the competition. So, I mean, these guys do think that their trust processors like TR, which, by the way, everyone made a fortune when they broke a pegson, including a John C. Ross dollar. But I think that the market is not going to just roar here because I think there's also good people who just say, you know, I had to take money off the table. This is too crazy. Well, to that point, Goldman's Tony Pascariello today, a really interesting note. He's been very constructive. My instinct is it would be a good time to tap the brakes here, probability of a draw down his rising. Yeah, see, I read that piece and I said, well, you know what, if you really want to know how I have to start feeling for the club. That piece was very cogent. That was very good. I think that the uncertainty, there was, I gave you a pull forward Trump, but there's a lot of uncertainty here so that if you're making a decision about who's going to be the candidate, that's, again, I'm referencing a semblance piece. Well, to your point, though, Jim, some of these opening gainers, Live Nation, Capital One, are these expectations that Trump is the next president? Yeah, at World Live Nation, absolutely, 100%. Capital One, again, because of the acquisition, 100%. I mean, these are not, by the way, Richard Fairbank is one of the great American bankers. He doesn't come on TV. I've been schooled by him. He has helped me immeasurably about how credit cards really work in this country. And I know a lot of people feel like a firm might say he's predatory. I just say he's, you know, he's one version of how to do a credit card company. And he is a huge winner in a world of a pull through Trump, who I don't think would even focus on this issue. All right. Interesting time for banks, a couple stories on the tape today. One's about junior bankers working 100-hour work weeks and how that pressure is reasserting itself. The other is this journal piece on Goldman rolling out their first AI. I thought that was terrific. It's a product for developers in-house to allow them to scan reams of information in seconds. Well, I think that if you're working 100 hours, what you're trying to do is keep your job. I mean, one of the things that's happened, if you look at the unemployment rate for people who are, like, in their 20s, that's where the unemployment rate is skyrocketing, because those are the people, like, do we need them? That's the answer. I'm going to talk about, I'm going to ask Mark Benioff tonight about that. CEO of Salesforce, do we need people? Because what happens is, is that those are the people who are on the front lines. We hear it over and over again, that banking is where you're going to get the most change. So, someone's working 100 hours. I think they're trying to preserve their job. My advice then, by the way, when they go out to lunch, oh, I can do this, I think, because I don't know where my... Oh, shoot, I can't. But what you do it when you're at Goldman is that when you put your jacket on your chair, when you leave at 8 o'clock at night, and then you just say, "Well, I was there all night." By the way, Eddie Lamper did that when I worked next to him at Goldman Sachs. You know, he'd cook his coat off. That wasn't... Me, well, I'm working really hard. But, no, he isn't the... Wow, he's working already. He's pulling it on. Oh, he's Eddie. Oh, he's around here somewhere. Oh, yeah. I mean, you know, take your jacket off. This is to the 100... The guy who's working 60 hours next to the 100 hour guy, take your jacket off, and no one's going to keep you. I'm not working 100 hours. You can fool anybody with that stuff. Jim, you were right on the tape yesterday on Chewie, where you told your members to sell half now. Yeah, well, because that stuff is... Look, I... The shareholders suit, by the way, on Ryan Cohen and Bebeth and Beyond was very curious, because isn't that the kind of suit that should have been brought by the government? We also saw, by the way, this is some sort of really interesting moment we should be thinking about. Under Armour paid a huge amount of money, but it wasn't the SEC. Again, it was private strike suits. Very, very important. And Chewie, I don't know, when Ryan Cohen... When Kitty and Ryan... This is an element that is not memesters, apes, ice cream cones. Reddit must be watched every minute. I get my bulletins. A lot of it is... I'll say it. Yeah. But you need to know what people in Reddit are thinking, and you need to know what Ryan Cohen's thinking, and you need to know what Rory and Kitty's thinking. I mean, they're factors. There's something more factors than half of this stuff that will come in with everything. Well, a couple points on that. One is we didn't get to discuss the SCOTUS decision yesterday about SEC in-house proceedings. The other is how many Google searches reference Reddit, and this Rosenblatt downgrade at Google has real questions about search. Yeah. Look, I mean, the stocks had a big run. People are unsure about what's going to happen. What's going to happen with search versus Gemini? I think search has gotten even better. I'm tired of bashing alpha because every time I've said that it's almost over, it's found a new way to make money. And they're very smart. You're underrating Ruth Cora after you're saying something bad about alpha bit. And I've done that periodically, and I have never had anything other than a pie on my face. Well, it's Barton Crockett, who I know you like. He talks about nascent signs that Bing has taken some share. We know what's happening to search at retail Walmart and Amazon, maybe a higher than expected CapEx cycle. It's possible Google Cloud's doing okay. Look, YouTube is the best way to reach people. And that makes it so that I find it -- I have scaled back alphabet for travel trucks. It's the only one of the megas that I just took a lot off. And I took a lot off earlier than I should have. You could argue this is where the stock is because I felt that search would be impacted. And then I missed how great YouTube is. So I could say, remember, like with Jensen, there are a lot of smart people at alpha bit. And they need and know what we do, and they just keep pioneering. But, yes, that of the sister, you know, if you're like five sisters or whatever, I don't like them. I'm so sick of -- I won't say the significance of that. Seven brothers? Yeah. We've never thought about that. We've never thought about that. Wasn't that great? Speaking of names in the large cap tech gym, your reflections on Marotra's interview with you last night. Okay, so, Sanjay, Sanjay Marotra's CEO, people don't understand there's two components of semiconductors. You want to be able to make as many as you can, but not too many because then you've plugged the zone. That's typical. I'm giving you the regular typical hack few. And then that you should be able to produce them very quickly. Well, the answer is no. When you're making more complex chips, you have what's called a yield problem. You have to go a while before you get it so that most of your chips are okay. These chips are really hard to make. So people don't expect it to be able to make them like that. You can't. And then, you know, when you look at the supply, he's telling me, he said, "Look, I can't make them all." So anyone who's saying, "Oh, man, he's going to flood the zone." He's talking about multiple billions of dollars he made. So what you want to do is you want to go back and look at Micron since 1994 and realize that there's no peer, but you only had seven months good. And then you add in the fact that there's now a secular growth story. In addition to the cyclical, when we talked about cycloversecular, single mediums, it depends on how the economy's doing. And then you add in PCs, which you think's going to be strong. We've been buying a best buy for the Chaps, because of that. And you come back and say, "Why are people selling it other than the fact that it's up a lot?" And that's usually a not great reason to sell. It is a reason to after a pause buy. And I would be a defender buyer of Micron here if I didn't know everything else that's right around. Really quick. Jim's comments about the supply side. But Meroto did talk to you about the demand side. Oh, wow. We had said data center inventories will normalize. By mid-summer, they have normalized. And you are seeing a strong buying pattern for memory. And that's why you said, "If you're selling it here, talk to me." Yeah, I mean, sometimes... Look, I'm not saying that I'm a great student of every single move. But I like the pause, because that's what you learn. You pause. And this is a man who's not been saying that. And now he's saying, he's giving it a green light. He actually, by the way, remember, he had his people pull me back. I was ahead of the game in January saying, "Look, I think this is going to be multiple billions, and it's going to be the most important thing. Just worry about high bandwidth memory." That's an HPM that he was talking about. And they were saying, "Jim, but don't go up the reservation here. Don't be more bullish than me." I think you would read it saying, "Jim, your bullishness is greatly appreciated, but I think that we can only do so much." And when I get that kind of call, which is to say, "Look, Jim, you know, they don't say I'm not accurate." They do say, "Geez, you're so bullish, but why don't you go over the call again?" And if you parse it, you realize that Sachin Rocha is one of the most humble and least promotional CEOs that I follow. He tells it straight. He didn't give you the exact bottom in October. You just say, "Inventories are very lean." So what I think you've got is a guy who's not a hype artist. He's really saying things are going to be really multiple billions. And when he's not a hype artist, he says that means buy. That just means buy. Jim, there's a lot of news in media. There's this NFL jury decision on Sunday Ticket. There's this investment that Netflix continues to make, and there's studios in Albuquerque. Well, you know, I said that someone should invest in New Mexico. Yes, I know. And of course, the one company that is the most forward in doing the best of users in New Mexico. Obviously, they're a huge fans of the show. Actually, I do like this guy. There's some people in the business who really likes. They're interested in it. But this one is a total quandary. And I don't know what to make of it. There was a guy who's retiring. Jeff Pash was a class fan of mine at school who is a remarkable general counsel for the NFL. And I would have liked to see something from the NFL explaining what to say or do. And they're usually pretty communicative. I don't have the lawyer switch to. I don't have -- some of those better just had it on the call. Yeah, we'll see. The story's not over either. No. These penalties can change up to the upside. The real question is whether or not you're going to watch season three of The Bear. We'd never miss. And I hope they bring Bernthal back for just those little bits. Yeah, there's some flashbacks. I mean, Bernthal's so good. But look, no, The Bears. I like shows that are not cop shows that are not hospital shows that are not death shows. I like shows that are tense in real life having been in a kitchen of a restaurant I own and being told to get the hell out of it. And I say I own it. And the guy that cooks is -- what does that mean? And he's got a knife in his hand. Get the hell out of his kitchen. I was trying to tell him that I own the restaurant. That meant nothing. But no, he's saying the restaurant. It's like a lion. Only one lion can be in there. I'm scared at death. I mean, you know, I don't go in the kitchen if you own it. You don't belong. I need hands on 12. All that stuff really happens. Yeah, the corner. I mean, corner. I was told corner. The guy was going to like jump a hot bucket of fries on me. Which is but I would win more fries than Nicole. Jim, we're back above 5500. There you go. On the back of PCE. Now there's Chicago PMI. Let's get to Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick. Yes, I get surprised here on the Chicago PMI June read. We're expecting a number around 40. 47.4. Now that doesn't sound great. It's under 50. But it's still the best read since November. But here's why the market on interest rates is moving a bit higher on this number and stops a bit lower. Last month was over a four year low. May of last month's read at 35.4 comp all the way back to May of 2020. When it was 31.3. So even though it's still in contraction mode, it did have a big jump. And do keep in mind that 10 year note right now is hovering to 426. That's unchanged on the week. Pay attention to that four and a quarter level. It should be significant. And pre-personal income and spending numbers. That 10 year was hovering around 430. Squawk on the street will return after a short break. Time for Jim and stop trading. Interesting chinaire energy LNG, which is probably the company that is most levered to export of natural gas. Maybe they saw something coming into debates. The stock has been very strong. But it will go much, much higher if President Trump beats President Biden because this is the company that's most levered to building more and more plants. It's been the original. It was the starter. It could go. It could be the right thing. Secondarily, semper, not as levered, but still doing some really important things. Semper being the more calm way SRE with the 3% yield. Jim, we're three point shy of a record in today. Is that a comment on what you think a Trump White House would bring to stocks? Yes. I guess it's quite an answer. It's going to be a little definitive at times. I mean, is that or is it a combination of what inflation appears to be giving us? Well, inflation is saying that you're going to win on that because the PMI didn't even heard it. Right. But I also think that I had thought that there might be more of a sense of, geez, things are really chaotic. Instead, I think people are going back to remembering that it was a good time for the stock market. The amazing thing, of course, it's been a good time for the stock market under Biden. But it's never accrued because Biden is not a fan of the stock market. How do I know that? Because he told me many times when he trained down to Washington. Pretty vocal about that. Yeah. He always was prodding himself when not being involved, and that's okay. Plus, not for everybody. Goldman reminds us again today that the first two weeks of July have been the best two weeks of the year back to 1928. Summer rally, I mean, it's funny, the summer rally is real, the sell in May is not. The sellers seem to just go on vacation at the beginning, and a lot of new money comes in, nothing new there, and that's a very good sign. By the way, it's a good sign for the making caps. Apple is the leader this time, not Nvidia. Apple is a consumer-led company, which, remember, the other ones are enterprise. Yes. People are more suspicious of the enterprise, other than ServiceNow, but they're not as suspicious or as critical of the consumer side. Yes. Well said. How about tonight? Okay, I've got Salesforce, which is one that's coming back that is. Speaking of enterprise. Yeah. Very big enterprise. And, you know, yesterday's Oedis was a big, because Alonco didn't get the full approval out of Black Box warning for some pet care, for a very important pet care drug. And I think pets are back at Witness Chewy, and I think that's Oedis is a big winner here and Christian pet is fantastic. So that trades back. The pets are back. It was like, it kind of stalled, and now pets are back. And how will you? Because I think pets are great. I'm not a think fan of when people go and buy those curated pets. There are so many pets that will be killed if we don't go into the shelters. Go to the shelter. I have a Tennessee kill center dog. And by the way, just so we know, Nvidia was a kill center. Jim, it's an important, we chopped a lot of wood this week. Nice job. Why not? Yeah. Right? That's what we do for a little. Yes. So we give them what they want. We'll see you tonight. Okay. Well, with his market outlook as we get ready to wrap up the first half, and we're within an arms reach of an all-time high. Stay with us. You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the street. 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