Archive.fm

Squawk on the Street

Nvidia In Correction Territory, Playing the "Frugal Economy," the EU vs. Microsoft 6/25/24

Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer led off the show with Nvidia: Shares trying to rebound after falling more than 17% from record highs set last week. What's the proper entry point to buy the stock? Jim also outlined his retail picks for a "frugal economy." Also in focus: The EU's antitrust charges against Microsoft, a double dose of Apple news, Carnival's surprise profit, Boeing reportedly changes its proposal to buy Spirit AeroSystems, Airbus slides, a look at the charts Cramer says should get the Fed's attention.

Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Duration:
44m
Broadcast on:
25 Jun 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer led off the show with Nvidia: Shares trying to rebound after falling more than 17% from record highs set last week. What's the proper entry point to buy the stock? Jim also outlined his retail picks for a "frugal economy." Also in focus: The EU's antitrust charges against Microsoft, a double dose of Apple news, Carnival's surprise profit, Boeing reportedly changes its proposal to buy Spirit AeroSystems, Airbus slides, a look at the charts Cramer says should get the Fed's attention.

 

Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Building a portfolio with Fidelity Basket Profolios is kinda like making a sandwich. It's as simple as picking your stocks and ETFs, sort of like your meats and other topics, and managing it as one big, juicy investment. That's pretty good. Learn more at Fidelity.com/baskets. Investing involves risks including risk of loss, Fidelity Brokers Services, LLC, Member NYSC SIPC. It's Jim Kramer here. You're listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action. Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Keaton here with Jim Kramer at Post Night in the New York Stock. Exchange favor has the morning off. The story flips today as NVIDIA looks to bounce after its worst three-day drop in a year and a half. What does that mean for this recent rotation as we look ahead to FedEx tonight? Our roadmap begins with that NVIDIA correction. I'm the bounce after the tough three-day slide. B of A adds its best of breed today. The EU's new tech target, accusing Microsoft of breaking some antitrust rules and we're watching the plane makers Airbus cutting targets and Boeing reportedly in talks to buy back spirit, mostly with stock. Let's begin with NVIDIA looking to rebound after sliding into correction territory, Jim. Even though since the close on the 14th, S&P's up a touch. Yes, look, I don't like rallies that start in pre-opening. And the reason I don't is because then anybody who's in it yesterday, who bought it, say, any one 18, there was a lot of volume, one 19, a lot of volume. There was some volume, one 17 after the close. Those people are going to flip. They're going to hit. They're going to hit. They're going to hit. That's going to make other sellers come in. What you really want to see is you want to see it open down and then rally. And this takes away the opportunity. So the people are not, I think, going to be able to say, let's make a stand here, unless Micron, they have Micron, they don't have Micron, because it doesn't not going to report to tomorrow. So I look at this situation and I say, wait, wait, yeah, look, I'm going to own it. Don't trade it. But I always want to have the, uh, apropos of our Thursday. That's including NVIDIA. I never want people to get a bad entry point. And I don't think up three is the right entry point. You don't think we're there yet? No, we haven't had any, we need Sanjay Moroch or to say, look, the business is accelerating. You know, Micron CEO, uh, the business, the complex of data center. Right now we don't have any new data points that make me feel like, you know what? They're the street, there's someone who operated again. I mean, it's all very lame. The defenses are lame because it's had such a big run. So I say, let's see if this early morning rally can hold. But my sense is, is that there'll be people who are saying, oh, thank heavens. I thought I'd never see this price again. Those are the people you're most afraid of as your, as your, your kelp. Your fellow shareholders, your enemy here, your enemy. That's why we turned to you, Jim, uh, for that, for that, for your gut in a sense. Um, that said, yesterday, even with its decline, you had 9 of 11 sectors green, 70% of S&P components green. Does that continue? Well, I spent a lot of time trying to figure out how much of a shared donation can these big companies make? Um, Microsoft, Microsoft wasn't down that much. Apple, that ain't done any share. That's still accumulating money. Amazon did roll over. Alphabet had a really good session. There's not enough money in those stocks when they shed their gains that can go to the rest of the market and sustain it. Uh, you need to see the big seven-year auction on Thursday. I care, I care more about that. $44 billion, and I care about what these stocks are doing. There's not enough money to go around. There's just not. Uh, there's a lot of safe money at five. Uh, these, to get people to come in and buy something. You need FedEx today to say they see an acceleration. Where you need to see, uh, there's a lot of chatter about the auto companies. Maybe they have to cut prices. You need to see somebody, you know, some Fed officials say, look, you know what, we're looking at the data and maybe we see some sort of this. We got to see what the personal consumption is going to be on Friday. Yep. Instead, we have a pop-off Bowman. You know how I feel about these people? Yes. They have, they are being grilled and grilled and grilled. And it's almost like when you, I interview a CEO and they come over and over again and say, look, it's quite a period I can't tell you. It's quite a period I can't tell you. And finally I say, okay, whatever you say, that was like, whatever you say, yes, if it gets hot, we will raise. And then that gets to be the quote of the day. Oh, it's going to get hot and they'll raise. So we, we need to see, uh, Fed shut up or Fed say, hey, listen, it's okay. Then we need to see some sector of the economy that's indicating that it's, it's doing a little better. Before we just say, you know what, it's time to buy. Yep. It's time to buy the rest of the market. We'll pay attention to FedEx tonight as for. Yeah, that'll be important. Bowman's actually speaking twice today. This one speech this morning was in London when she did remove her expectations for cuts into 25. Take a listen. Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming too restrictive. However, we're still not yet at the point where it's appropriate to lower policy, the policy rate. At the same time you had daily yesterday say the labor market might be in an edit inflection point, not in a good way. I don't know where these people get this information. I don't know what they're looking at. I don't know the data they're looking at. I mean, it's pretty obvious. We have a big immigration issue. Okay. And the immigrants are taking a lot of jobs and that's great. Provided that they're legal. Okay. We don't have wage inflation like we thought we had. We have rent inflation. All right. You know, Jay Pals talked about that. We do have rent inflation. That's because we've had an influx of 10 million people in the last three years. It's not a political statement. It's an actual statement. So I just think these people, they're basing it. I don't even think every day you can say, oh, it's sunny. I'm going to go out and say this. No, let's stick with the facts. Okay. We do have some inflation numbers that have been too hot. We still are not at 4.2% on unemployment. We still have areas of the economy that need to cool down. That is not a prescription for selling everything. It's not a prescription for saying that we need to tighten. It's just a prescription for saying, look, the data's just okay. It's got to get a little weaker. That's the wrap. Everyone who's trading, they're like trying to go to the Hamptons. Yeah. Stop it. Well, we did see TLT ramp late yesterday. Right. That was strange. We got near 4.2 this morning, Jim. We're going to talk a lot more later on today about negative pricing in grocery. Yes. We'll talk to Evercore. Yes. They got a note out today. Campbells, Kelanova, Kellogg. Melissa just mentioned Walmart. These comps will be tough. These are very, very hard. Look, I just keep coming back to what are the best performing retailers? Okay. Walmart because they can question. It was a good piece yesterday that we had talked about how Walmart can still go higher. It's like three more teeny lunch. I really want to go higher. Costco can go higher and TJ can go higher. Now, what are those three? Those are three when you're so frugal. It's like, forget about it. I'm just going to go to TJ, which by the way, someone recommended Capri today. You know where I can get all the Capri went? Next door. But, you know, it turns out to be it's from TJ. It doesn't say Capri on the door. I got to go pay more for that. This was an all-time high yesterday, Jim. Burlington is about people being smart. Capri is about people saying, uh-uh. Urban because of newly where you rent the clothes is about people saying, great. This is about a frugal economy. These themes that are happening and they just don't seem to, no one seems to grasp them on the Fed. The frugal economy. Why can't they just say, look, we're not as worried about food inflation as well because there are two companies called Costco and Walmart and they are, that's over, that's 200 million people. I don't know. The other thing, maybe they have to go to Dollar Tree. Well, why don't they ever mention companies? Is it for, it's stricken for Bowdoin? Is that stricken for Bowdoin to say, listen, Walmart is keeping prices down? Why can't they do it? We know Jay could, Jay could do it. Uh, this is on a, this is on a day when McDonald's is launching their $5 value now. By the time they scraped, they, they crammed the super franchisees and didn't realize that if you sell more at a lower price, you can actually make it up. Yeah. Providing you sell more. It's a lot of business to casual and fast-casual. There's MCD. Jim, I know you saw the upgrade of Gap today out of Cowan. Oh, he's doing a great job and people don't think he knows what he's doing. Are they out of their mind? He's terrific. This is our speaker, Richard Dix. I had him on the show and he is revitalizing one by one by one every single nameplate. Now he's actually off to Atlanta, which has been just a complete wasteland and Banana Republic. He's doing a great job. We came on the show. He's the humility that he showed is really rather remarkable. And I was, I was quoting and I was saying, listen, I just went to my one. I just went to my Banana Republic and went to say, you know, we're not there yet. We're not there yet. This guy one by one is doing the right thing. Yeah. Cowan says transformation at all four brands and back to school really isn't that far away. No. Oh, you already have to have your stuff in your stores. If you're going to do back to school by now, you're late. I would point out that he did not even have as high hopes as Banana Republic as I have walked him lads. And then subsequently he's like, say, you know, we're getting there. This is a man who has kept expectations low for a very inexpensive stock with a really good balance sheet and a dividend that can be backed up. That's what I'm looking. Interesting. Target goes to 30 from Cowan on Gap. Let's move to the EU versus big tech. The block hitting Microsoft with antitrust charges accusing it of breaching competition rules by illegally bonding teams with Office 365 and Microsoft 365. Somebody says it'll work to find solutions to address those concerns. I see you literally threw up your hands just now. Because one way they can do it is when you turn on your PC, you don't suddenly get teams. I mean, everybody knows this. This is like one of the great open secrets in the world. Like I put on my PC, which I have the stinking you up. I'm sorry. I have a very nice dual pack of machine. And what happens is as soon as I do it, up comes teams that I press teams. Did I want teams? Did I want zoom? No. I want what I want, which is my home screen. But no, I get teams. And then it tells me the team. Oh, look, there's like five new upgrade, update some teams. I don't care. So you think the regulators are on the, they're not off base? They're not aggressive enough. They're not aggressive enough. They're not aggressive enough. Because everybody knows that it's time. We all know it. It's like at least a mistake. Oh, here are new teams. Did I ask for that? Did I ask for that? When I wake up, I was just my wife saying, listen, you know what, I've got new, I've got all new underwear for you. Did I ask for that? Is the remedy simple in this case? I think that they have to say, look, you can't make it so that when you turn on a PC, that these companies that make the PCs are under orders, or I don't know how it happens. But like, why are we constantly getting these updates from teams as soon as we turn on a PC? And the answer is because Microsoft's really powerful. Or Microsoft just had me, Jim, if you knew how to turn on a PC better, then you wouldn't be getting it. You know, if you knew it-- It's all in the wrist. Yeah. I mean, maybe what Jim would, you ought to do is stop pressing restart and first anti-teams, we have that. You want anti-teams. That's F-74. Everyone knows this. Everyone knows it. Why are they just going after the bundling? Meantime, more clarity, Jim, in this apparent partnership between Apple and Meta, which the Bloomberg now says never got to a formal stage. The Apple, they argue, doesn't think Meta's privacy protocols are strong enough. Okay, so, when I spoke with Tip Cook after the worldwide developers, I started off by saying, hey, you know, when I pull the young people that I deal with, they're so excited about the privacy. Because privacy is number one. How come no one's talking about how we care more about privacy than anybody? I said, well, it's because these people are in their fifties. They don't care. The 20-year-olds are like scared to death. They're like believing in privacy. But I heard that Tim was in talks allegedly with Mark, which would rather be Mark's over. Like, what's that conversation like if the most important thing that you have to say is privacy and the most important thing that he has to say is impressions. But you know, the culture in the end trumps everything. Culture will trump any sort of strategic goal. Yep. And I think the cultures are just too different. Meantime, back to 2.10 on Apple, you saw Amelia's yesterday, it goes to 2.60. I like that piece. I sent him an e-mail saying, look, it's a terrific job. I do think that he is talking about that notion. He likes simple concepts, Ben. And I really want people to read his stuff because it's like his dad, who's the greatest chemical analyst in my life. Yeah. He knew who the chemical brothers were. He knew that it was actually, it was much more about Huntsman. But when you look at what Ben is saying, Ben is making a very simple point. He's saying most of your phones are old. That's all. And as a result, I think he called this iPhone upgrade cycle, it could be unprecedented. And he's right. I really think he's right. Especially if you have longer battery life. And when you talk to Cook, I mean, he would say, how can people even make a judgment about how great this phone is when all we could do was show like a dozen of the features that are coming. So I really think that Ben is very right and put a lot of people off guard. It's not going to go to 165 and no one upgraded there. And Tony, who now regard as being the greatest ever, because I'm given it hyperbole, but Tony did a good call. And I think that it's been straight up and I think people are still trying to scramble because they're saying, well, I'd never like to pay 31 times earnings for Apple. But welcome to the new world of giant upgrade cycle plus service revenues explosion and no anti, and no China to speak of, even though obviously our relations with China are suboptimal. Yeah, I don't know if you saw these comments from Ambassador Burns about China. In his words, sort of reneging on this deal that they had with us last November to get citizens to reengage. I thought that was dreadful. I mean, we obviously are taking as many. It mentions we're taking a lot of students in, which is fantastical, but they can say, listen, that's because we pay. But it seemed like that if you participate in anything that we do as a matter of cross culture, you're summoned or you're there's a knock on the door. I thought that was self-evidently terrible. We'll also talk some, some novo approvals in China this morning. But now that is people don't realize the obesity rate in China, horrible. And right now, growing diabetes, Lilly had diabetes. Very big. When we come back, we'll get to some of the transports, including Boeing and Airbus in the spotlight for very different reasons. We'll talk about why. Take a look at the pre market here. We'll see if this Nvidia bounce can last. You heard Jim's comments a couple of moments ago for now, Nasdaq futures close to the morning high. Stay with us. At EverNorth Health Services, we believe costs shouldn't get in the way of life-changing care and we're doing everything in our power to make it possible. Behavioral health solutions that also keep your projections at their best, it's possible. Pharmacy benefits that benefit your bottom line, it's possible. Complex specialty care that cares about your ROI, it's possible because we're already doing it. All while saving businesses billions, that's wonder made possible. Learn more at EverNorth.com/wonder. Support for this program is provided by Chevron. Demand for energy is projected to continue rising in the future. To help keep up, Chevron is increasing their US oil and gas production, and they're innovating to help do it responsibly across their operations, including their Gulf of Mexico facilities, which are some of the world's lowest carbon intensity operations. Giving supply energy that's affordable, reliable, and ever cleaner. That's energy and progress. Learn more at chevron.com/meetingdemand. Boeing is said to have changed its proposal to buy back supplier spirit error systems. Published reports say the jet maker is looking to offer, mostly stocked after coming close to a more than $4 billion all cash deal. Terms also call for spirit to shed operations that make parts for Airbus, which has some news on its own front of the gym on these supply chain disruptions. Yeah, I was very surprised because we all think of Airbus as the well oil machine here and then Boeing as the pitiful helpless giant is so long in the case. I would say that anybody who worked on this Boeing story for a long time knows that they repeatedly said it's going to be cash, repeatedly says it's going to be cash, repeatedly said it's going to be now it's not. Well, that's just great. I mean, look, can anything that Boeing says be taken seriously at this point, honestly, I mean, how many days do we have to go by and just pretend that everything is like, well, they're a regular business, sure they're fine, Justice Department might have died a moment, they're fine. Don't worry about it. They said it's going to be cash, now it's stocked. Don't worry about it. Look, they want a contract last night for the for the military. You know, people don't look at it, it's like a couple hundred million dollars, they want some contract. All I can tell you is, is that the fact is, is that if there were like three companies in this business, we would never be talking about this company. I mean, it's just ridiculous how many mistakes Boeing makes. And we all say fine, it's like it doesn't matter. Those are the duopoly defense. Yeah, because of the duopoly, and you know, you can get away with anything of your duopoly. I mean, look, I think Mr. Kalhoon's a fine man, he gave his testimony, he said it's fine. But why isn't each member of the board being called in front of Congress, say what did you know? Was there any statement, did anyone make a presentation talking about any of these issues? Was there any, give me your, give me your process, we want process. I don't care about statements, I want process. What was the process that the board used to be able to, okay, all this stuff? Did the board talk about how it's going to be oil cash? Let's see the process. Where is the Justice Department's typical, typical investigation that regards what are the processes that this company is using? Because right now it looks like there are no processes, it's all seen in the past. You're talking about so many elements of negative news, Jim, why can't the stock be pressured lower? Because there's only two of them. In the end, there's just two of them, and they win. It doesn't seem to matter how incompetent they are, they win, and by the way, I will give Airbus a real shot at trying to be more incompetent than Boeing, with that announcement last night. Oh, because of the supply chain? Yeah. I mean, jeez, I thought that they were well, well, but they just go back to Boeing. We have a way in this country of examining what companies do well, and that's, we look at the process, we see if they had any processes. I don't feel these guys have the level of process that we would have at our company or any, a lot of companies, they just don't seem to have it. But you're not willing to, you wouldn't be recommending a buy here on a flyer? Well, I would be having to close my eyes and buy it and just say, you know what, no matter what, the travel theme is so strong, I don't care. Because just farmers not going after the people who run the company, what would happen is is that you, if I come out today and say buy it, and they come out and say they can't find anyone who wants to be CEO, then I think it goes down lower. The only thing that would really take the stock down to $150 would be that they said, we can't find anyone who wants to be CEO, which you'd rather remarkable give them the fact that you make $10 million the moment you say you want to be a CEO of a big company. By the way, you mentioned travel trends, did you see TSA's throughput on Sunday? 2.996 million, that's a record. Got it by Boeing. Despite all of that, yeah, and we're still looking ahead to July 4th, which we also expect to be records. Oh, I know. Amazing. We'll get Kramer's mad dash count down to the opening bell. One more look here at the pre-market, we'll get to a bunch of other calls as well as we get this Tuesday underway. Don't go anywhere. Imagine earning a degree that prepares you with real skills for the real world. Capella University's programs teach skills relevant to your career so you can apply what you learn right away. Learn how Capella can make a difference in your life at Capella.edu. Watch some pre-market gainers here. Carnival shoots to the top, earnings out about 10 minutes ago with a surprise profit. They do raise the full-year guidance on yield and net income. It's going to open up better than 4%, opening bell in a few moments, and don't forget you can catch us anytime anywhere. Just listen to and follow the Squawk on the street opening bell podcast. Let's get Kramer's mad dash as we count down to the bell. One of my things, Carl, is that some operators are better than others, but I say that because it sounds like everything's just a big ETF to a lot of people. It doesn't matter whether they're selling burgers or they're selling tacos, it does matter greatly. An exhibit that is Brinker International, a very good piece today by Steeple. This is simple eat. Now, what people don't realize is that we can sit there and talk about how McDonald's can go below five, or we can say to Kevin Hochman, the CEO of Brinker, that's not up 70% since the year beat. 70%. I mean, that's incredible. And the reason is bargain. This big smasher, they've got an $11 option for dinner that is really just a bar nut in the best deal I've seen. They also, by the way, are the largest seller of margaritas in the country. And they use top-flight liquor for everything, and none of it is that well-licker that we were saying. Like, what is that? Major General Peters tequila? No, no. They use top-flight stuff. And I know they're going to be angry. I say, "General, not major." But I think that this is just what a... This isn't me and understands how leverage advertising, but he understands that if you give the American people a bargain, they will come. And the other people who feel like this are a Texas roadhouse, they also have $11. That's what people would. That's actually not that far off from a fast-food or from a QSR. That's the point, right? This is the empire strikes back. This is the full dining, which comes to almost the same as a Big Mac fries, Diet Coke, in some parts of the country. And Hotman is just, he is religious about his pursuit of value. And he also has incredibly funny ads. He says, "Great social media." This is a company that was, I remember when Norm Brinker was alive, was the last time I really liked this stuff. And we're talking about the '80s. And this guy comes in, and I'm like, firstly, I'm totally dismissive of him, because he's like, "You know, that's where you go," and you're like, "You take the kids, where else should we go?" I don't know. I don't know. Let's go. No. She leaves his dynamite. She leaves his dynamite. We're going to talk more about the degree to which that sector has stolen share from QSR. Oh, yeah. Later on this morning. Let's get to the ballot. The big board today, it's consulting company Booz Allen Hamilton celebrating 110 years off the Mads deck and for star pharma, the maker of adjustable and intranasal medicine. And as you see, right up in the open here, it's kind of evenly split, Jim. Particle was good. Yeah. Particle was good. And that is, I was saying, I'm looking for some things, some signs that it's worth it to be a little more involved. Particle really had a much better expected quarter. I had them won, and I think they were kind of surprised that there's not as low as it was, given the promises they were making. They far exceeded their promises. Now, never. And any it's good for carnival, somehow, is therefore great for royal, because royal is the favorite son in this group, RCL. So when the smoke clears, people still be buying RCL. Doesn't matter. Yeah. We were looking for a small loss, managed to come in with seven cent profit. And as we said, raising their yield forecast, Jim, we keep pressuring them, like, how much more can you raise prices? Just, I guess they haven't met the resistance yet. Really, like Vail did, the resort company. They reached the level where they went too far. But that is really, the people I think about who's going too far in pricing creases, they really haven't been that many. And, yeah, if you look at Vail resorts, that stock is down 16 percent, because they did overreach. I'm waiting. There was an article I always reluctant to talk about Comcast or Disney. I was in the Goldman initiation. Yeah. Their theme parks are still. Oh. Wow. So Goldman initiates a lot of media, a sell on Paramount by Comcast, Disney Fox. And on the Disney part, they do say that the theme park that $60 billion investment over the next several years is an installation from some of the content challenges that everybody faces. Well, Kyle, anything that makes you feel like, well, wait a second, maybe I shouldn't just continue to go all in Netflix and maybe I should look at the other guys, that made me feel that way. I mean, the old days, when you would speak to these guys behind the scenes, they would say, look, I don't know what Netflix was so special there. We have theme parks. Netflix doesn't have any theme parks. Then later on, it was like, oh, we have theme parks and Netflix doesn't have theme parks. Well, now we're going back full till and I think it's great. Again, you, Johnson, I have to run this company to it. I don't have enough of a wife out there doing stuff and I got my kids with me in a car. Time to even read you Johnson to come out and just say, look, let me just tell you who we really are. In no politics, in no proxy, here's what we're doing. And Jim's right, our parent company Comcast gets a similar initiation by Jim. They're the stories mostly about broadband worries being priced in and free cash flow over the next five years, really driving buybacks and dividends. And I think the stock's not working today, despite the fact that that was a very positive piece, because they do say, listen, all these things they're doing will offset video. Well, you know what, let's say we're talking about NVIDIA and it's like, look, all these things that we're doing are going to offset the fact that people aren't now using AMD chip. I mean, no, no, you can't. You can't do a recommendation and say that, look, they've got these businesses and the graphs that that is. And when there's so many companies that don't have to have anything offset, like what? I don't have to offset what a lot of companies, there's nothing to offset. No tough choices. This is what you're saying. Why do I have to be involved in a stock that yields 3% that sells at 10 times earnings, where something good is offsetting something bad? When I can be in a stock that sells at 20 times earnings and there's no, you don't have anything to offset. And that's the problem. I mean, you can't have anything in a piece, which says, look, these are bad, but this will offset that. When you have so many other companies where there's nothing. No cons. Just pros. No cons. You know, if I want, I look, I feel like I work for Comcast, I own Comcast stock. I just wish that there was something new that would make it so that you don't have to offset because there's nothing to go offset. That's what you have to do. Look, tough choices have to mean. When you continue to offer a product and it's going down in value and you have a great analyst writing a piece about Goldman and the stock is down nine cents. That should say to you, wow, I don't know, man, that maybe the offset is too much to look. Speaking of tough choices, Jim, big piece in the journal about Jane Frazier and the turnaround in the city and the fact that it's been 80% below the highs for 15 years. I thought that was a thorn. I thought that was a really much, much unwarranted negative piece, stocks up 90% this year. She's done a very, very good job. I know we're going to see the stress test and what she's up to, but that piece had too many long knives for me. I think she's done a really great job. And the idea that that piece basically just said nothing's happened since Corvette, that was the, oh, if you, if you step back, it was like to be sure, but she's done this right. Sure. I thought that piece was just damning with fame praise. I really didn't like it. You mentioned the stress test tomorrow night, a couple of desks this week have pointed out. Last time, banks traded well afterwards. Yes. And if Basel through the end game is a little bit more dovish, does that give management more confidence about buybacks? Yeah, it should, and I know Wells is ready, Wells has been buying back. The one that I've been watching is back in America. It still tells us 12 times earnings is born, Buffett's favorite, it's up. They're all like between 18, 19, 20. But Jacob Morgan had a remarkable move yesterday. The group wants to go higher, but you know what? In the end, there are buyback machines and you can't buyback, and they all depend on the last quarter. So I wouldn't advise people that move, now you got away. You got to wait because they're going to report and whatever you try to pull off here is going to fail. But I did not like, and by the way, I love Charlie Sharpie, he's doing a great job at Wells. But I just thought that was an unfair piece about Frazier. I didn't get where they were coming from. She's had a, she's got a bad hand. She's trying to, she's got to like a nine high, and she's trying to make something happen. Maybe a straight, she's got a couple, she has to pair, I don't know, but she does not. I mean, it made it sound like that she was just, you know, it's, it's been a kind of a wasteland, and that's just not fair. Yeah. It's a very difficult and very international story to turn around. Yes. Me too. Yeah. A bad hand. Yeah. We mentioned the GLP1's gym. So Novo's going to invest $4 billion in a second plant in North Carolina to try to make more GLP1's. We mentioned Reuters, China approving Magovit over there. Yeah. Look, the big, the big untold story here is that these factories are incredibly hard to build. I was struggling with Jeff Marks, my partner, for the CMC Investing Club, we ever meet on Thursday. You know, these are, these pick, they can take up the five years to build. This one won't be ready, maybe till 2029. Nothing to do with the, the unstable, you have to do with the injector. It can't be. A lot of people thought it'll be like COVID. Like, Hey, let's do a vaccine. Let's get in people's hands. Right. No, these are really complex. Jacob says a lot of the engineering, Jay, don't buy it for that because they're not, that's not what the company's really about, but yes, they, they have, these are really hard factories to build. So you got an outfit like Viking and everyone says, Hey, well Viking, Dave got something really fantastic. Well, you know, give me a talk to me in 2020, talk to me in 2020, 2029 or, and then people say, well, maybe Pfizer will buy Viking. Well, no, you have to have the plants. This is one that is much more about the plant than people really, huh, really hard to build. One of my David Ricks, by the way, at the very beginning said, look, our lead comes from how hard it is to build. It's like, you know, even Intel, in its heyday was not able to build it. They had these foundries they were building and they don't take as long as this. Right. And those were big. Yeah. It is surprising. You're right. Fair amount of pressure, Jim, in Home Depot, worst out component, and you saw pool, right? And this lowered guidance. Ooh, pool was terrible. And I know that my friend Herb Greenberg would be writing some negative things about Leslie as part of his Wall Street beats, I didn't think that it would be that pool would be as hurt. But they often they talk about, they had some really negative things about discretionary spending. Yes. And, I mean, it took my breath away how bad they were. This price will take you back to late 22, you know, remember, people built pool. There was a COVID move to build this, obviously, and these guys do that. Home Depot, it cannot get out of its own way. They obviously are become much more of a rate play. They bought this SRS to compete against Builders First Source, talk about a stock that's been just crossed as Builders First Source. I don't even know what to say about some of these companies that they've been hit so hard. And again, it's hidden. It's just hidden. People don't realize that Builders First Source was at 214 and that was back in March. And now it's at 130. I mean, that's -- I can't even say people say, "Who cares about Builders First Source?" Well, the answer was that Home Depot did or they wouldn't have been buying that SRS. Sure. I mean, don't these kinds of charts, shouldn't they be getting the Fed's attention? That's my point. Exactly. It's like, let's deal with the fact that there are so many segments that are cooling and just focus on the ones that happen and that's rent, that's housing, and that's cars. And if cars come down, if the CDK hack is that bad that they can't sell as much, and if we have incentives coming back, then just checkbox, checkbox, checkbox. But when you look at the stock of them, you go through the CompScore's Home Depot, there's nothing good. It's just nothing bad. Right. But, you know, obviously Home Depot being great in the quarter. Jim mentions cars today. Wells has a preview of the coming quarter for the industry. Another tough setup, Jim, who's worst positioned? Yes. We are the least confident on Tesla. We expect another sub-400K delivery quarter, lower pricing, financing. But you have to go to the creative piece, what, by Jonas about the… Energy? Energy. It's worth it. You can always just say it's worth excellent. I'm telling you, I still think that Tesla's bottoming. I do not like the action in any of these car retailers that had problems with CDK, because these are places where every single weekend is a huge amount of business. You can't do all the business by hand. Which they literally have been doing. Oh, my God. CarMax is a really smart, very technologically inclined company, and they have the, I think, the least exposure to this, but everybody's got some exposure, because there's parts involved going to the outside of your network to get stuff. And this industry is just being clobbered by this. I was going to say whether or not of all the cyber attacks we've seen in the last few years, this seems to have the deepest roots. It also seems the one where we start because it's a private, you know, CDK's private, we don't seem to have that kind of assurances to be get from the SEC looking at you. I don't know. But this one just stinks. And we're all kind of like, eh, you know, yes, sure. We're in that ice glaze over moment, but if you're in the Castorora Palo Alto, George Kurtz, the crowd's right, your eyes aren't glazing over. You're just counting dollars, figures. Anybody who is not. Anyway, you either pay ransom or you pay that and it's better pay that. That's a good way to get into software, Jim, especially after some of these pieces yesterday about what, for example, a TikTok van would cost Oracle. Oracle numbers. Yeah. I don't know. I mean, those are great speculations. Salesforce, though, second best down name today. Well, Salesforce is fighting back. There are people who feel, you know, what we've made, we've, we have said that the enterprise software business is gone. It's no way to get the premium multiple. It's interesting that Salesforce has a lower Ford PE than Apple. I mean, Apple is a device company and Salesforce is in the ether. I like Salesforce. I remain constructive to Mark Benioff. I think that we're in a period where a lot of people would be right to say, I'm going to wait till things get better before I buy them work, but I'll go out the dream force be part of the faithful and I think that they do, they've managed to use AI possible for customers. It's like, I think service now is, but that's not what, and worked it, but those are three that people, well, they don't like Salesforce, they hate work day and they're still inclined to buy service now. The day being the people who really still care a lot about enterprise software. You mean like the CIOs, the CTOs? No. No, I think that those places are all doing good business. I think that the marketplace once hardware, the buyer, Wall Street once hardware, sure. I mean, they want Broadcom more than they want Salesforce. Oil and gas, Jim, a little more discussion today about summer demand finally coming around. Stock piles have been a little hawkish, bullish last few days. I thought yesterday was related to Northern Israel and Hezbollah, because that's Iran. This notion that we would see a second phase and that's what I thought the spike in oil was two pronounced versus inventories. That was entirely related to what the people fearing something to happen, that that will be a wider war in the North. Which would then involve Iran saying a lot more difficult things and so therefore you have a spur. I don't think it's demand. Right. Meanwhile, some of the Red Sea turmoil is starting to bite on shipping costs in the Middle East again. What's going on? I think I know. Great point. Don't know. I mean, we've lost over it before. We care more about our trucking rates in our culture. Yes. I don't know, Carl, I still feel, I don't, I said last night on Mad that we are right now totally in a invidious set and every time you try to figure out, well, wait, be sure I buy Union Pacific. What do I think about Lily? You have to then hit up the stock of Nvidia. And as long as it's top of mind like that, then we're going to struggle. It's like, well, you know, have you seen the terrific things about GM? I don't know. Let me just check in video. Right. Me. I have not seen this occur at any other time where you just keep checking this one company because you want to be sure that that's not going to do something wrong. Is there any, I mean, it is, it is the, we always do the top search ticker on CNBC.com is that the most requested ticker when people meet Jim? I don't, I don't get anything out of it. Nothing else. I don't get it. I mean, like we're going to be out there looking at the X, some Ridge grantee time versus goes out to me and says, Hey, boy, thank you for your dog. Huh? Your dog name and video. They do say that. I'm Jim. Nice to meet you. >> You know, sometimes like, okay, Jim, Jim, thank you. >> Yes. >> Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, thank you. I'm out here yesterday. Hey, good dog. >> So you want to see the market escape that? >> Yeah, it has to. >> You do. >> No, we can't go anywhere until we get, until we stop thinking about NVIDIA. We have to be able to focus on more than one thing. More than the idea that there's this company nobody's ever heard of that took out like for a surprise. That was a seminal and horrible moment for this market. >> So you mentioned FedEx and Micron tomorrow, Nike Thursday, are those two, are those some early candidates? >> It's a great deal. Micron has to confirm that it's not just the hot ban with memory, that it's throughout, it's food chain that's doing well. And let's say I want to just be sure that so gently, I'm not saying that it was a horrible moment for NVIDIA is a great company. And it deserves to sell where it should 'cause the multiple is very low. But I'm saying that there was this horror moment among stock people who know Microsoft and just say there's no way this company, I have no idea what they do is bigger than Microsoft. It's just not right. And I remember by the way when Exxon was passed in value and people said well, Exxon's the greatest company on Earth, how could that be passed by a Merk, whatever. But then NVIDIA is too much of a focus. And I don't mean to be, look I've been focused on this story before. >> We do our part to talk about it, it's no mystery. >> No, and it's right to focus on, we just need to make it so that it's not resentful, that it's not, I can't have it be all. Those people are blown and being blown out right now. But the contempt that the marketplace heaped on this company for being bigger than Microsoft was almost like Rocky Apollo Creek, right. I mean like, or is this Mr. T in the forecast for those who buy it is pain. It did feel like very Apollo, it was like a Rocky moment. It's like who is this Rocky? Who's that thing like the steps of the Philadelphia Museum of Art? What is that all about? >> That's what the people were going to know. It's very possible this company has done great things. But I just felt that there's an element of, I can't believe it got that high. And now finally it's going back to where it came from. And I am saying is that we just kind of make it so that this is all that we just can look at something else. >> Other than in that. >> It's a great point Jim. And we'll see if that fever breaks. Especially as we move into earnings season where everybody's going to have their shot. >> Right, exactly. >> And there's four and nine out of the company. So really cool. >> As we go to break, let's watch bonds. We got some Philly Fed services this morning. We'll get conference board at the top of the hour. As Jim pointed out, a two-year note auction today and a busy week for auctions. We're still at four and a quarter. And we'll be right back. Watch pen today. Raymond James cuts to market reform. Stocks up 20% since they initiated back in May. They say even with the activist pressure, the M&A rumors, we don't expect any dramatic shift in strategy. We are recommending investors take profits, look for better opportunities. Their top pick is Caesar. We'll get stopped trading with Jim in a moment. Dows down 95. It's time for James to stop trading. >> I'm looking at the chaos in these rails. And they make me think, well, maybe what I'm about to say, maybe wrong because I'm going to talk about an auto company and the autos move by rails. But there's a piece this morning by the prolific Adam Jonas about how Ford and GM, the 40% gap, if Ford's ever this blow, then you may want to think about buying Ford and use his favorite stock. And I would point out that there's a lot of, by cheaper shows on this board, we're going to talk about it on Thursday, but there's a lot of disinformation right now about the F-series not doing well. And that is not correct. The F-series is continuing to take share. I understand actually that Stellantis may be losing share to Dodge to Ford. And I don't think that Ford is at a level that's dangerous, but Jonas points out that maybe Ford will come up with a way to return shareholders more. They have not indicated they want to do a buy back yet, new CFO. I think it's possible. I think Ford has plenty of money. But just be aware that this stock had a move yesterday in the face of what I thought was a disinformation campaign about Ford losing share. And it disinformation meaning that when you check it out then come out to be true. Not unlike, by the way, the unfortunate Mark Zuckerberg didn't put loose in nowhere. I don't know what was that. What was that? >> Yes. >> Well, given the GM four year to date split, I would imagine you wouldn't be disappointed if they-- >> No, that's what I'm hoping for. I think that Jonas has got a good piece that there's just, it shouldn't be this far apart. But GM, Mary Barra, we spend a lot more time. It's very interesting because if Mary Barra and GM were the focus and not Tesla, then we would probably feel a little more bullish to GMs than a remarkable job. And I did think that Jonas is be saying that Ford is still his favorite is very, very positive. >> As for Tesla, it does feel like every Morgan Stanley note on Tesla from Jonas is about another unit. Either the AI or Optimus or in today's energy. >> I think the robot division is worth $72 per share. And I spent that, that's not back to the envelope, I spent all night and you can even see I tweeted at 3.30 and I was working on how there's this, he has a light bulb. A light bulb is worth 47, I don't know, and maybe as much as $82 per share is his new light bulb. >> Yes, that's a front of the envelope by calculations. >> Can we just, it's a car company, it's doing very well. He's got a lot of other things in the fire. And I think it's a buyer. But I like, Ford's a little easier, you got that 5% yield. It's down a lot versus GM. >> Jim, we'll see you tonight. >> Yeah, I got pets, I'm talking about pets tonight. >> Oh, good, and FedEx of course. >> Exactly, exactly. >> Mad money, 6 p.m. Eastern time. Down with some opening lows here, down 113, 40, our 54, 55 S&P. Stay with us. >> You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. >> All opinions expressed by the Squawk on the Street participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC, Universal, or their parent company or affiliates. And may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. But only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information Squawk on the Street participants consider reliable. But neither CNBC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Squawk on the Street disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/squawkonthestreet disclaimer. >> Earning your degree online doesn't mean you have to go about it alone. At Capella University, we're here to support you when you're ready. From enrollment counselors who get to know you and your goals, to academic coaches who can help you form a plan to stay on track, we care about your success, and are dedicated to helping you pursue your goals. Going back to school is a big step, but having support at every step of your academic journey can make a big difference. Imagine your future differently at Capella.edu. [BLANK_AUDIO]