Coffee House Shots
Starmer's Europe dilemma
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That did not happen, certainly the first round it has not happened. There is some hope in sort of anti-le Pen world that she will be stopped short of having a majority, it looks like she could well be. It's very hard to tell what's going to happen because of the rather complicated way in which these French elections work. Another upshot is the fear of the left as much as the fear of the right that seems to be driving these elections. So you have quite seriously radical left wing politicians in France under this coalition which is sort of led by Sean Millochon and Le France and Sumise. They did pretty well but it's thought that a lot of national rally support comes from a hatred of the left and you're getting this strong city country divide. So in cities you're seeing the left, the quite radical left doing very well and then the rest of France you're seeing an almost a reaction against the cities which is driving up this support for the right. Now of course both of those angles are tricky for what seems like our incoming centre left prime minister Katie. Yes and I think there's a question about the Europe generally that Keir Stammer is facing and I think you can argue that it's probably quite different than the one they envisaged when he became Labour leader because a lot of the rhetoric from Labour has effectively been unlike the Tories will be the adults in the room and we won't be playing to the gallery or putting out fierce rhetoric to get favourable front pages from the right wing press. We'll be trying to have sensible conversations but almost that was predicated on the idea that Europe was dominated by social democrats. And now you have a situation where you're not completely there yet but you can see the right and in some places the far right on the rise. So what does Keir Stammer do? I mean we talk about what does he do about Donald Trump? What does he do if the pen and obviously there's one set of elections still to go in terms of this is a runoff. If he does have to face the pen's party in really senior positions. I mean he has been asked about this today and he said, "Oh work with any government in Europe and across the world we are elected to serve the country." For me that's what serious government is about so yes we will work with whoever. He went on to say he did think that it's important that you start to make the progressive case to meet the challenges and that's the way progressives are going to win. So it's a notion of the sense he is not personally criticising the pen or her party but he is making clear that it's not his sister party but I think that was pretty obvious to begin with. And he's saying he wants to work with them on things like small boats. In terms of I suppose there's two aspects just thinking about it immediately which is partly because when you speak to figures in Labour about how they would approach this in France they do cite that Donald Trump example which is Donald Trump is not a natural bad fellow for them. Look at the past comments of David Lamy who we expect to be foreign secretary list time next week. He suggested he was a white supremacist at one point. He's obviously walked back from that. He also protested a state visit. I think you could see Labour offering a state visit to Donald Trump. I mean let's see if they go that far but certainly the current rhetoric seems to suggest that they would want to have that relationship and maybe that would be what would help. So I think there is a new dose of realism in Labour's foreign policy as they've got closer to power and it's meant that David Lamy and Keir Starmer have tried to strike up all these relationships with Republicans as a way to get to Donald Trump. If I think similarly in France they would talk about some sense of we will find ways because we need to have dialogue on these conversations. So I think there will be parallels in how they approach this but I do think it makes things harder for Keir Starmer because if you think about his whole policy in terms of whether it's you know and obviously some of this is more the commission and so forth. But whether it is about new trading relationship that perhaps is a bit separate. Okay. But also if it's about stopping the boats, obviously Keir Starmer does not use stop the boats as we see United if it's about that. I mean Keir Starmer has talked about this kind of E-wide returns agreement. Obviously France is completely essential to that. I think if you have the National Rally and you know a rhetoric which is much more anti-migration is probably harder. I would imagine to get cooperation on some of those things is not impossible but I think it does make it a bit more complicated. And again when they were coming up with a lot of their policies and approach to this it was quite different Europe than it is now. Freddie would you agree with that? I mean it's all well and good to be on the campaign trail visiting Washington or saying that you'll work with Marine Le Pen but when they're actually in government just how difficult will they find this generally you know a West wide turn towards the right. Katie hit the nail on the head there with Europe. I think Europe is going to be the very interesting dynamic here because you're going to have a prime minister who is leading a country that has exited the European Union who's pretty favorable towards the European Union. And you might have France being led by a party and possibly in future by the Marine Le Pen who is Eurosceptic. It's not to say that France is going to I don't think frecks its on the cards anytime soon but it'll make them odd bedfellows when it comes to diplomacy. And of course it does actually also present some opportunities for Kierstammer when if you want to if France is led by a party that is rowing a lot with Brussels that is at odds and certain things Britain could sort of position itself as you know the friendly outsider a bit more. And also economic opportunities because you know as we know you know Paris sucked up quite a lot of capital in the post Brexit era that could start to go away if people think that France is in chaos is being sort of led by far right parties. I'm not sure that is happening you know as we everyone's talking about this morning the market's actually responded quite positively towards going in France this morning. So I think that might be exaggerated because I think perhaps people aren't as afraid of National Rally as they were and Jordan Bardella this dynamic young leader is very keen to sound as moderate as you can. I think they'll definitely have Rachel Reeves trying to make that an opportunity for the UK by being able to say that we might have seen as low we were the chaotic ones in recent years but look at this large majority if they do have one. Stability in the UK and also compare us to some of these you know parties you wouldn't expect to be in government in France and beyond and try to suggest to investors if they're looking for somewhere you know across Europe to put their money the UK is the safest bet. I think was also quite interesting when it comes to the pen result as a Nigel Farage response because there are some comments today I think they were too unheard and Nigel Farage was actually quite critical of moon and a party and particularly on the economy suggesting this doesn't you know this would be bad for the country this doesn't add up and then actually praising Maloney and I think you know in the context be interesting about Freddie things but yeah I think reform had a difficult week or so. Yes there was a big rally yesterday in Birmingham that shows you know there's still quite a lot of enthusiastic supporters but you can you can just sense and like you just sense and Nigel Farage's rhetoric some things the team is saying that they feel as though they have been unfairly attacked for various things I think they've been under the caution on candidate selection. I think these Putin comments and you know their tax they've had from the main parties there and there is a worry that that's begin to dent where they would like to be at this point. So you do wonder if the pen comments are part of an effort to almost you know try and distance or position them itself a little bit more in the centre than where their critics want to put them which is more you know security risk loony right territory. I think yes I think Farage's remarks are interesting because it shows that the national populist global movement is not that coherent it's not it's not one thing and there are quite big divides about particularly economics and that's what Farage was talking about saying you know they're going to make a mess of the economy because Farage is probably more closely aligned with Eric Zamore in terms of the economy than Marine Le Pen who really is quite quite left wing or quite a very anti globalist in her rhetoric and in some of her policies. So I think you'd see sort of if if the right is going to start taking over in Europe that will be one of these key fault lines are you more of a kind of Farage Zamore that Maloney type. Where are you on Ukraine that's another interesting question you know Farage has got himself in trouble about talking about Putin recently but Le Pen historically has talked favorably about Putin. Whereas Maloney is very very strongly in favour of Ukraine wants to back Ukraine a lot so that will be another key fault line I think. And Maloney I think also rejected over to from Le Pen during the European Parliament elections that right. Yes they've bickered they've bickered publicly and I think Le Pen is also fell out with the AFD so I think she has said she won't work with the AFD. So yes the right is as as as as fratricidal and and divided as as the left will prove itself to be. Now Katie a lot of this might be on Kia Stama's mind but apparently not on Friday nights tell us about something he said in the interview today. Yes we're speaking to Virgin radio so it's one of those interviews where it becomes a bit more I don't know personal chatty exactly which is often the highest danger for any politician and they slightly start to relax and talk about things that people can relate to. And it was about workloads and Kia Stama saying that he doesn't believe you know working 24/7 he said I don't I don't believe the theory that you are a better decision maker if you don't allow yourself the space to be a dad and have time for kids. And suggesting that he you know he's not going to fill his diary 24/7 and it doesn't make you a better decision maker. But specifically and I think some people picked up initially is just he won't work after 6pm generally. To clarify he has said that he has a strategy to hang up his children and this means he will on Fridays I will not do a work related thing after 6 o'clock pretty well come what may and he doesn't plan to change that in 10 dining street. So we'll see how that goes I think it is a is a contrast with Rishi Sunak now sometimes they have for quite sycophantic when you get these briefings in the past year or so. And it's Rishi Sunak works really hard he's staying up late and I've always found them slightly irritating his briefings because I almost I expect the prime minister to stay up quite late I would find it weird if they were doing a nine to five. What do I think about a 76 I guess on a Friday he can try and make it work. But I suspect Kirstal will soon find us as most of those who enter 10 downing street which is obviously being in opposition is hard work and tough. But as soon as you're in government I think the time constraints the pressure in your time and also decision making you know it's going to hit you pretty quick. So let's see how he how these comments age I would say in a year's time. Do you see any sympathy for Kirstal here. I can certainly relate to the wish to want to have some time off on Friday evenings. But yes as you know if your prime minister I think the country expects you to sort of at least be on standby on a Friday night maybe working quite hard on a Friday night particularly if the world's in crisis which it surely is. Freddie and Katie thanks very much and thanks very much for listening at home and if you'd like to see the coffee house shots team live after the election on the 11th of July we are having a coffee house shots live in Westminster. To get tickets go to spectator.co.uk/live [Music] [BLANK_AUDIO]