Coffee House Shots
Should we ban polls?
You can get three months of the spectator if you subscribe before the election for just three pounds plus a free election mug. Just go to spectator.co.uk/mug. Hello and welcome to Coffee House Shots, the spectator's daily politics podcast. My name's Megan McEnroy and I'm joined by Katie Bowles and Chris Hopkins Political Research Director at Savanta. Before we get started with this podcast, I want to tell you about an event we're having. We're hosting Coffee House Shots Live on the 11th of July. How great is it going to be, Katie? I've heard it's going to be pretty great. That's what sources close to me are saying. If you listen to this podcast, you might have heard us mention before, but tickets are now nearly over. So this is one of, I won't say final. I don't want to make promises. I can't keep. But one of our final warnings and it will be 6.30 till 8 p.m. Election after math. We're going to reveal a special guest in due course and to book a ticket, just go to www.spectated.co.uk. forward slash live. So there's one week to go until the general election and we thought today we might talk a bit about polling. Katie, you wrote this week about a polling blackout. Can you explain to listeners what that is and why we're talking about it? I think we've spoken a lot about the polls on this podcast and in general. I think if you think about the election campaign coverage up onto this point, it feels as though the polling, where the Tories are compared to Labour, has been a dominant factor in every single week of the campaign. And therefore, you're now in a situation, as I write in my column this week, where lots of the complaints from CCHQ and from senior Tories and from Richey CXC, could it have been different if we had different rules on polling? Now, this might sound a little bit like clutching for straws. I mean, is it the case that a party so behind in the polls has now started blaming the polls? But the precedent here is, you know, you can think about some countries, France, Italy, Greece, they tend to have a couple of weeks before an election, perhaps very close to it some longer, where you have a poll blackout and you stop getting the polls. And I think it's just an interesting concept in the sense of, do we think this election campaign will be playing out differently if you are not getting, you know, there was a day this week where you got free MRPs on one day. And also, they were all really fluctuating in terms of, yes, in every single one, the Tories are getting nowhere near number 10 again. But, you know, around, I think, 50 Tory MPs in one over 100 or another. And, you know, the frustration on the Tory side is, I think, it means that we talk less about policy and more about polling. Now, I think there's probably something in that, because as a journalist myself, you suddenly get drawn into the hues up, hues down. I'm not sure they're in the best place to make the argument because it sounds a bit more as though, oh, things aren't going away. We can blame this, we blame this, now it's playing the polls. So, I'd love to hear from a pollster. Yeah, look, I think the first thing to say is that there have been a lot more polls in this general election than there have been previously, you know, there are more pollsters now. And that's the reason why. And I think, you know, generally, without going down a sort of supermarket economics, you know, train a thought, like, the more of us there are, the more competitive in theory, you think we are. And, you know, ultimately, we're all trying to just give an accurate impression of public opinion at a given time. And, you know, the more of us there are, the more in theory, we're all striving for accuracy. And the more in theory, you know, we're sort of competing for the best and the newest and the cleverest methods in order to get that. I think the concept of a blackout is a really interesting one. I think, you know, broadly, our, and that's both my personal and the industry's kind of answer to this is that we believe polls provide a level of democracy in some way, shape or form. Yeah, if there was a poll in blackout, that that wouldn't be a law that stops all the forbids polls being conducted. It would be a law that would stop them being published. And therefore, they would be conducted privately by hedge funds and those that could afford them, they just wouldn't end up on the front pages of a newspaper or on, or in broadcast news. And therefore, you know, we aren't, we are not looking to influence the election. We're looking to measure where things are at. And I think that it is ironic that the party that are calling for this poem blackout are the ones that are so far behind. I think also we have to remember that Richard Sonak and the Conservative Party have been behind in the polls for a long, long time. It's not like they've been behind for the final week or the final three days, which I think is the French polling blackout, you know, they've been behind for a long time. So, you know, the public would have a gauge of where the polls are at and how badly the Conservatives are doing this election, no matter what, unless there was a polling blackout years in advance. And there isn't going to be one of those. So it's a bit of a moot point, really. And but, you know, I do understand the argument that it can affect turnout, sometimes it can sway voters, if they, but I think ultimately, we're providing a democratic service rather than doing anything on board. I think it's an interesting one where Labour would sit on like, because certainly, when you speak to Labour figures, they don't find the current polling that helpful. Now, I don't think polling is there to be helpful to any political party. It's not really the point of it. But I think the super majority, if we're still allowed to use that term, polling is such that, you know, I think Morgan McSweeney and those around him, you know, they think they've got a message they can put to say why you're seeing these polls, but you should still come out and vote for us. But of course, the things felt a little bit closer than they think, you know, the get at the vote operation could be a bit simpler. And also, they worry about complacency. And I think we're both the Tories and Labour for very different reasons. There was just the sense that the sofa is current and the biggest opponent. And this idea that you're going to have voters staying at home to Chris's point, because they think Labour's home safe and dry. So why did they need to take time out of their day? Particularly if they don't like a couple of policies or aren't that indeed if I care Starmer. And then the Tory side, if it looks like all is lost, and, you know, in fact, they have very little chance. You can obviously try and say if you'll vote to stop care, Starmer winning by a huge margin. But it's not really a positive reason to get out and do that. So, you know, I can see a world where Labour might be a bit skeptical about, you know, all open to this idea of a blackout. But in a way, if all the political parties think it's a good idea, it doesn't necessarily mean it is a good idea. I would personally, on a really selfish level, in terms of seeing the exit poll on election night, I think, you know, two-day blackout would just add to a bit of drama for journalists in that moment. But I don't think I'm speaking for the majority of the country in that argument on that way of looking at it. We do, in theory, have a polling blackout. We have a polling blackout on polling day for democratic reasons. And so it's not like Britain doesn't have one, it does. It's just, I think, there is obviously an argument at the minute for there to be a longer one, and it's not one that I buy. But yeah, it's worth saying that Britain does have in theory as some sort of polling blackout. And I wonder, Katie, you also wrote this week about how people like you and Chris and the Tories are in this position where you're talking more about what will happen to the Conservatives after the election than before. I wonder if all of this discussion about polling is feeding into that? I think it does feed into it. But I also think to Chris' point, it's natural, in the sense, it's not as though this campaign was suddenly called, and the Tories plummeted from being two points behind Labour to a position that looks irrecoverable. So if you've been having to write about the Tory party, as some of these podcasts have, for quite a long period of time, you'd know for some time, it's quite hard to say, oh, here are their grand plans, here's what they're thinking is on this, when you're not sure how long they're going to be around to do it. So I think that was always, regardless of how many polls we get a day going to be at. But I do think it just adds to this doom loop. And there was a quote I have in my column, sorry, I'm just talking about this column, I sound obsessed of it. It's a good column, Katie. But there was a quote I had when I was calling around ahead of doing it, which I think probably sums up the effect that some of these MRPs coming out, you know, every other day has, which is on a Tory candidate, which was, I tried to be positive, I do my leaflets, knock on doors, then I see an MRP poll telling me I am toast, and I want to put my head in an oven. Also on the campaign, some celebrities have also been getting involved. So David Tennant and Kemi Badenock have been involved in this, I suppose you could call it a spat at the British LGBT Awards. David Tennant said that he wished she would shut up, and both Suna and Starmer have now commented. So can you tell us more, Katie? Yes, so David Tennant, effectively, as you say, spoke with these awards, she suggested that he did not agree with Kemi Badenock. Currently, the Equality's Minister perhaps not for so long, and said that he would like to live in a world where Badenock does not exist anymore, and he would like her to shut up. Now, in terms of, I think, what this calls us is, if you think about where Badenock stands on gender, on biological gender, it's very firmly in the camp, which is quite critical of efforts to relax rules around self-ID when it comes to transgender policy. And David Tennant is clearly on that other side. And, you know, is this, I think it gets you into a point which I love Chris's view on, which is what is the celebrity endorsement? Of course, in this case, it's almost the opposite endorsement. You know, does a celebrity criticising a politician have much effect? I mean, I think Badenock is not exactly known for sitting quietly when people come to criticise her. So I didn't, she has taken this lying down, and she's hit back, as she would expect. But in terms of what it means for the election, I think it's probably just highlighting the fact that there is a difference in positions and perception in terms of the Tories and labour deficit. But Chris Starr best be on a real journey on trans issues. And he obviously inherited a self-ID policy. He stuck with that. He came under a lot of flack from some women in his party, most notably Rosie Duffield, but also figures in the shadow cabinet. You had Shabana Mahmud, the shadow justice secretary, when she was on my podcast when we were born, she was talking about, yeah, she was happy with the current position. And you have Chris Starr saying that, you know, he wouldn't have engaged in the discussion in the same way as David Tennant. Now, of course, he wouldn't. David Tennant's an actor. He's the future prime minister as things look. But I think it shows you that Labour do not want to really venture into what could be described as a culture with one week to go with the campaign. And Chris, what's your thoughts on celebrities wading into the campaign? Yeah, I feel like we've had fewer doing it this time. Again, I don't know if it's because the polls say that it's a foregone conclusion, but it feels like there hasn't been a necessity for it. I think, yeah, the most recent sort of polling that we ran on this was actually about Taylor Swift in the US and then what sort of impact her kind of endorsement could could have on the US election campaign. And I think always, yeah, these things come with a great deal of over claim. I don't really think David Tennant's comments are really going to have any impact on the campaign. And also, frankly, culture war issues don't really matter to voters. And I think the conservatives have really tried to over egg them for a couple of years now, because there was a division, there was a dividing line between them and the Labour Party. But I don't think when it comes to, you know, who's putting an ex where in the ballot box, you know, this sort of issue is it's going to be the one that tips anyone into a particular box or not. So, you know, I think that David Tennant is often welcome to say what he thinks. I think it's interesting that he perhaps picked on the wrong qualities minister in terms of the the inevitable fight back that that will come. But, you know, this could also be the future leader of the Conservative Party that he's sort of picked a public fight with. And yeah, yeah, that maybe gives a bit of an interesting backdrop as to some of the challenges that Labour may face legislating on this issue in the future, particularly as it is likely to divide their party much more than with the conservatives. Thank you, Chris. Thank you, Katie. And thank you for listening. [MUSIC PLAYING]